Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size, Impact. Sanjay. V. Khare Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606 http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/. Four Distinct Crises. Peak Liquid Fuels. Best estimates of future world oil production. Peak Total Energy.
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Sanjay. V. Khare
Department of Physics and Astronomy,
The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606
Best estimates of future world oil production
Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2050
(Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)
TM = Total mass of energy providing material
e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
EPM = Energy produced per unit mass
NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation)
EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested =
NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x
We are running out of TM and EROEI
rate expected to slow
over next few years due
to silicon shortage.
Thin film PV production
rate expected to continue
One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit mass and per unit volume for various sources.
“Balloon graph” representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the “balloon” represents part of the uncertainty associated with EROI estimates.(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Hall’s own EROI work in preparation)
Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V. 2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.'' OECD Observer 258/59: 22-23.)
The energy return on investment (EROI) for various fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)
Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)
Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production peaked
The US lower 48 states
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
…theworld would peak soon
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
Spare capacity = how much extra oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained for 90 days
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
The foundation of all agriculture, the soil, is diminishing in all parts of the world
Forests are disappearing
Aquifers are being pumped dry
Fisheries are being decimated
Biodiversity is being extinguished
Rivers are drying up
1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are the world's most important stable nutrient source and to meet future demand cereal production will need to double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffs will also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if the food production necessary to support the increased population is to be provided”.
“My father rode a camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet airplane.
His son will ride a camel.”
or 1.055 × 1018 joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.