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Uncertainty in the future nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea due to unknown meteorological conditions

Uncertainty in the future nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea due to unknown meteorological conditions. Jerzy Bartnicki Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Background. Eutriphication due to nitrogen load is a serious and expensive problem for the Baltic Sea

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Uncertainty in the future nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea due to unknown meteorological conditions

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  1. Uncertainty in the future nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea due to unknown meteorological conditions Jerzy Bartnicki Norwegian Meteorological Institute

  2. Background • Eutriphication due to nitrogen load is a serious and expensive problem for the Baltic Sea • Atmospheric part of nitrogen load is 25-30% • In the frame of agreement between HELCOM and EMEP, atmospheric load of nitrogen is calculated every year based on updated emissions and meteorological data • EMEP Unified model is used for calculation of nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea, as well as source receptor matrices • The Source receptor matrix gives the contribution of each of more than 50 emission sources (EMEP countries, ship emissions etc.) to the deposition • What about the future?

  3. Practical problem • Following Gothenburg Protocol and EU NEC Directive, the nitrogen emissions will be reduced in 2010 for most of the sources • How will it affect atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea and its sub-regions in 2010? • Which sources will contribute most to the deposition in 2010? • Request from HELCOM to EMEP • What about uncertainty of the prediction? What will be uncertainty due to unknown meteorological conditions?

  4. Simple solution • Compilation of 2010 nitrogen emissions in the model grid system following Gothenburg Protocol and EU NEC Directive (+ 2 additional scenarios) • Runs of EMEP Unified model using meteorological data for: 1996, 1997,1998, 2000 • Computation of nitrogen deposition for each of available meteorological year • Computation of source receptor matrices for each of available meteorological year

  5. HELCOM CP’s Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Sweden Russian Federation + Europan Commision

  6. N0x emission sources for 2010

  7. NH3 emission sources for 2010

  8. 2010 annual emission maps

  9. Ship NOx emissions

  10. EMEP Unified model • Eulerian, 170 × 133 grids, Δx=50 km • 20 vertical layers up to 10 km • Topography and land use included • Meteorological data every 6 hour (300TB – 1 year) • 150 chemical reactions also in clouds • Dry deposition processes • Wet deposition with in cloud and below cloud scavenging • 1 year simulation – 2 hours execution time

  11. 2010 deposition maps N oxidized N reduced

  12. 2010 deposition maps N dry N wet

  13. 2010 deposition map – total N

  14. Catchments and sub-basins

  15. Depositions to sub-basins

  16. Depositions to sub-basins

  17. Depositions to sub-basins

  18. Depositions to the Baltic Sea

  19. Main contributing sources to deposition

  20. Main contributing sources to deposition

  21. Main contributing sources to deposition

  22. Main sources for total nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea

  23. Uncertainty of the contributions

  24. Uncertainty of the contributionsto the Baltic Sea

  25. Conclusions • More model runs with the same emissions and different meteorological years necessary to have a better idea about the probability distribution • A longer period than one year is necessary to evaluate the effects of nitrogen emission reductions. • The results of this project had an impact on the plans for the future emission reductions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe

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