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Is there such a thing as Migration of Poverty in Albania?. Jessica Hagen-Zanker Carlo Azzarri. ABCDE Conference Tirana, June 10-11, 2008. Introduction. Migration most important social, political & economic phenomenon in Albania since 1990 Internal migration also important, but understudied

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is there such a thing as migration of poverty in albania

Is there such a thing as Migration of Poverty in Albania?

Jessica Hagen-Zanker

Carlo Azzarri

ABCDE Conference

Tirana, June 10-11, 2008

introduction
Introduction
  • Migration most important social, political & economic phenomenon in Albania since 1990
  • Internal migration also important, but understudied
  • Internal migration mainly rural to urban/peri-urban areas
  • In ‘90s urban population increased by 14%, but not much known on living conditions of migrants

 What is the impact of internal migration on migrant households?

  • Since 1990 poverty decreases, especially in rural

 Has poverty relocated from rural to urban areas?

novelty of the paper
Novelty of the paper
  • Focus on impact ofinternal migration
  • Albania as quasi-experimental case: no internal or international migration before 1990
  • Unique dataset
  • Households over-sampled in peri-urban areas
  • Retrospective information on migration
  • Information on households in 1990 (controls)
slide4
Data
  • Data
  • LSMS 2005 (nationally representative)
  • 3840 households
  • 200 peri-urban households oversampled
  • Groups
  • RNM = Rural household, head did not migrate internally
  • PNM = Peri-urban household, head did not migrate internally
  • PM = Peri-urban household, head did migrate internally
descriptive statistics i
Descriptive statistics I
  • Migrants to peri-urban younger & less educated
  • Migrants to peri-urban more likely to be unemployed & working fewer hours
  • Employed in casual construction sector
  • Rural households with more international migrants than peri-urban  specialization?
descriptive statistics ii income and consumption
Descriptive statistics II: Income and consumption

RNM = Rural household, head did not migrate internally

PNM = Peri-urban household, head did not migrate internally

PM = Peri-urban household, head did migrate internally

descriptive statistics iii
Descriptive statistics III
  • Peri-urban migrants show worse housing condition, both compared to rural non-migrant households & own situation in 1990 (in terms of house type, number of rooms, water access & quality)
  • Peri-urban migrant children least likely to be sent to primary school (70%) & as unlikely to secondary school as rural households (33%)
  • Schools far
  • Teenagers work as much as in rural areas
  • Households do not consider education as important as peri-urban non-migrants do
descriptive statistics iv
Descriptive statistics IV
  • Comparison over time (whether moved 90-94, 95-99, 00-04)
  • Internal migrants move for different reasons

1) Pioneers: to improve life  more likely to send children to school

2) Crisis movers: out of need (pyramid savings scheme crisis)  poor housing & employment

3) Followers: to make money  highest income gains

  • Different expectations  different impacts
econometric analysis
Econometric analysis
  • Aim: measuring impact of internal migration on outcome of interest (e.g. income)

Two Solutions:

  • Propensity Score Matching

Compare peri-urban internal migrant households to very similar non-migrant rural household

  • Instrumental Variable Analysis

Replace explanatory variable with another variable (IV) correlated with explanatory variable only

propensity score matching results

Confirms descriptive statistics

Propensity Score Matching Results

ATT=Average treatment effect for treated; ATU=Average treatment effect for un-treated

ATE=Average treatment effect for population

instrumental variables
Instrumental Variables
  • Instrumental variables used:
  • Wealth in 1990  influences decision to move, but unlikely to affect current income due to the rapid changes that took place in Albania

2) Housing variables 1990  impacts decision to move, but not current income

instrumental variables results
Instrumental Variables Results

Dependent variable: Log income per capita

  • All the tests successful, although instruments could be stronger

Treat_year= number of years since the household has moved, 0 for rural non-movers

Other explanatory variables omitted for space reason

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Migrants are better off in terms of income
  • In peri-urban monetary poverty amongst migrants still high compared to non-migrants  migration of poverty?
  • Migrants are worse off in terms of housing, education, health, access to utilities, access to stable employment

Living expenses increase > income gain