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CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: what’s the brief story?. Mike Morris School of Economics, University of Cape Town and School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal. Situating SA Chinese imports/exports. Chinese African Trade 2005. OIL dominates imports from Africa 69.3%

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china and south africa what s the brief story

CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: what’s the brief story?

Mike Morris

School of Economics, University of Cape Town and

School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal

chinese african trade 2005
Chinese African Trade 2005
  • OIL dominates imports fromAfrica 69.3%
  • Also other raw materials - iron, cotton, diamonds, logs
  • All iron ore & diamonds from SA
  • Exports – mainly light manufacturing
  • Clothing & Textiles, footwear, bicycles, etc
what this doesn t tell us
What this doesn’t tell us
  • Specificity of South Africa
  • Indirect impacts of China on SA
    • In third country sector markets (need sector based research for this)
    • Exchange rates from Chinese activity
what makes sa different
What Makes SA Different?
  • Substantial Domestic Market
    • Size, Income Level and Sophistication
    • Concentration of Retail
    • Buyers
  • Substantial Domestic Manufacturing
    • Diversified
    • Struggling to adopt WCM
  • Substantial Mineral/Resource Base
  • No Oil
impact on sa
IMPACT on SA?

Don’t know enough but …..

  • FDI?
    • Clothing -Taiwanese
    • Steel - Mittal
    • Construction squeezed out of part of SSA
  • Trade on Manufacturing?
    • Substantial formal sector job losses in C&T (85,000), Furniture, Footwear decimated
    • C&T systemic value chain competitiveness response to upgrade local manufacturing
  • Aid? – Indirect impact through SSA
indirect impacts 3 rd country markets and exchange rates
Indirect impacts: 3rd country markets and exchange rates

Two sector stories show this:

  • Autos – 2002 work on competitiveness but at R15 = £. Now because of Dutch disease R10.88 = £ how survive???
  • C&T – Recent work for DFID – AGOA boost for exports but China 2 fold impact. Exports and Dutch disease affect Rand currency zone….