ЛОПР: ограничить ущерб от опасных природных явлений на побережье

1. Saint Petersburg Meeting February 8 – 9, 2012 ЛОПР: ограничить ущерб от опасных природных явлений на побережье NRAL: to limit damages from natural hazards at the coast Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University

2. Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

3. Goals and Objectives • To undertake comprehensive research which will identify and fill the gaps in our understanding of the nature and impact of extreme events in the coastal zones • To identify the mechanisms driving the intensity of extreme hazardous events in the coastal zones in European Russia • To identify regions most at risk of compound events • To provide risk assessments of these extremes under climate change scenarios

4. Expected results • Regional assessment of long-term variability and trends in extreme events over coastal zones of European Russia in the instrumental period, present transitional, and future climates; • Quantitative analysis of the regional and large scale mechanisms driving coastal hazards in a changing climate, including storm surges, extreme sea levels, hydrometeorolgical hazards (floods), soil conditions and groundwater storage; • Quantitative estimates of changes in coastal environment, geochemistry, water quantity and quality (implying, in turn, limits of the amounts of drinkable water) under changing climate conditions over European coastal zones due to the impact of hydrometerological hazards; • Regional measures of risk to environment, water resources and their management (such as potential limits of water availability), life conditions, marine structures and economy under climate change for selected coastal areas in European Russia.

5. Terminology Терминология • Hazard: threat Опасное явление: угроза • Risk: how much the threat can affect me Риск: какова угроза для меня • Vulnerability: how much am I protected from the hazard ? Уязвимость: насколько я защищен от опасности? • Preparedness: what can I do to reduce my vulnerability ? Готовность: что я могу сделать, чтобы уменьшить мою уязвимость? Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

6. Hazards, Extreme Events, Risks • Hazards: exceptional natural events • Storms, waves, storm surges, sea ice, flooding • Extreme events • Deviations from the normal variance, rare, infrequent • Threat • Danger for people, development, infrastructure, investment • Risks • Potential to cause damage, severe impact • Vulnerability • Status of protection from threat Vulnerability • “Low probability – high impact” Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

7. Elements of Risk: Hazard, Vulnerability, Preparedness Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow Juan Carlos de Villagran

8. Risk Assessment • Quantify the hazard Hj • Quantify the vulnerability Vj • Estimate the Risk Rj • Risk Ri,…,j = Vi,…j x Hi,…,j • Hazard and Risk Mapping • Evaluate and interpret both kind of maps Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

9. Vegetation mapping in the Astrakhan Nature Reserve area of the Volga delta records the rapid shoreline changes during sea level fall and more moderate infill during sea level rise over the last century (Overeem et al. 2003a, 2003b). Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Moscow

10. Changes in the duration of European wet periods normalized occurrence anomalies It is not the effect of changing number of wet days!!! Linear trend in the WP duration: 1950-2008 Zolina et al. 2010, Geophys. Res. Lett.

11. Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

12. vulnerability hazard risk exposure The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999) Methodology Historical Data Bases Coastal impacts Hazard - Uncertainty Exposure Risk Assessment Vulnerability Castaneda

13. To do • Develop standards for risk evaluation • Hazards do not stop at a border • Standardize terminology, exchange of data and information • Close co-operation with all partners • Authorities, agencies, private stakeholders, science • Integrate Risk Assessment into planning and operation • Money spent on early risk consideration is well spent. Much less than cleaning up AFTER a disaster strikes Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

14. Для этого • Разработка стандартов для оценки рисков • Опасные явления не останавливаются на границе • стандартизация терминологии, обмен данными и информацией • Тесное сотрудничество со всеми партнерами • органами власти, учреждениями, частными заинтересованными лицами, наукой • Интегрирование оценки рисков в планирование и эксплуатацию • Деньги, потраченные на заблаговременное рассмотрение риска, потрачены не зря.Это гораздо меньше, чем затраты ПОСЛЕ стихийного бедствия Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty of Geography, MSSU, Moscow

17. Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

18. Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

19. Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

20. Structual damage Ying Xiu, WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE OF 12 MAY 2008

22. Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006) Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year) 500 years return level (m) Castaneda