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Moving Your Community from Surviving to Thriving. Barry Bluestone Director, The Dukakis Center Northeastern University National League of Cities Leadership Training Institute February 6, 2011 Savannah, GA. Today’s Agenda . Economic Trends Demographic Trends

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slide1

Moving Your Community from Surviving to Thriving

Barry Bluestone

Director, The Dukakis Center

Northeastern University

National League of Cities

Leadership Training Institute

February 6, 2011

Savannah, GA

today s agenda
Today’s Agenda
  • Economic Trends
  • Demographic Trends
  • State and Local Fiscal Condition
  • 5 Steps to Becoming the “CEO for Economic Development”
  • Takeaway Action Items
slide4

Economic Recovery

Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget

slide5

But even with rapid GDP

growth, unemployment

remains above 6%

through 2014

Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget

stubbornly high unemployment means
Stubbornly high unemployment means
  • Sluggish recovery in state and local revenue
  • Continued high unemployment insurance costs
  • Continued high Medicaid costs
slide8

Percentage Growth in Number of Households (2007-2020)

U.S. +14.8%

40%+

15-35%

10-15%

5-9%

<5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

projected population growth 2007 2020
Arizona +40.4%

Nevada +40.4%

Florida +34.4%

Texas +22.7%

Idaho +22.6%

California +20.5%

N.H. +20.4%

N.Carolina +20.1%

Washington +19.1%

Delaware +18.0%

Virginia +18.0%

N. Dakota +2.2%

Iowa +4.0%

Nebraska +4.3%

Ohio +4.3%

W. Virginia +4.4%

S. Dakota +4.5%

New York +4.8%

Illinois +5.5%

Oklahoma +5.8%

Indiana +6.4%

Projected Population Growth (2007-2020)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

slide11

Age 18-54: + 900,000

Age 55+: + 20,800,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

slide12

Age 18-54: + 4.1%

Age 55+: + 95.9%

Age 65+: + 56.7%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

slide13

U.S.: 99%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

potential job gap
Potential Job Gap
  • Today, we have an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent and nearly 14 million unemployed
  • But after the recovery and at current labor force participation rates, if we return to a normal economic growth rate, there will likely be more than 15 million new jobs in 2018 but only about 9 million new workers
public finance crisis
Public Finance Crisis

With only 900,000 additional adults between the ages of 18 and 54

  • Who will fill the jobs in our cities?
  • Who will be around to pay the taxes we need to provide services?
impact on state and local government
Impact on State and Local Government

Will the aging of the population

Have a major adverse effect on state and local revenue?

Lead to an increased need for state and local public services?

And the retirement of public employee workforce create a drain on state and local budgets?

projected state budget gaps fy2012
Projected State Budget Gaps: FY2012
  • Illinois 50.9%
  • New Jersey 37.4%
  • Nevada 37.1%
  • South Carolina 26.6%
  • Minnesota 24.5%
  • Texas 22.3%
  • California 22.2%
  • Louisiana 22.0%
  • Connecticut 20.8%
  • North Carolina 20.0%
  • Washington 18.5%
  • Only three states are projected to have no budget gap
    • North Dakota
    • Alaska
    • Arkansas

Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, December 2010

gao state and local study
GAO State and Local Study
  • “Because most state and local governments are required to balance their operating budgets, the declining fiscal conditions in our simulations reveal the fiscal pressures the sector faces and foreshadows the extent to which these governments will need to make substantial policy changes and other adjustments to avoid growing fiscal imbalances.”

Source: GAO State and Local Governments’ Fiscal Outlook, March 2010

slide21

State and Local Operating Balance as % of GDP

From 2000-2008,

State & Local budgets

in Operating Balance

From 2010 through 2060,

State & Local budgets

are increasing out of balance

Source: GAO State and Local Governments’ Fiscal Outlook, March 2010

slide23

State and Local Government Taxes as % of GDP

Between 2010 and 2060, a decline in sales tax

revenue; stable property tax revenue;

and recovering income tax revenue

Source: GAO State and Local Governments’

Fiscal Outlook, March 2010

slide24

Federal Grants to State and Local Government

as % of GDP

Between 2010 and 2060, Medicaid grants

roughly constant, but other grants decline

sharply

Source: GAO State and Local Governments’

Fiscal Outlook, March 2010

slide25

Health and Non-Health Expenditures of

State and Local Governments as % of GDP

Non-health spending will be

Forced to drop substantially

As health care spending increases

sharply

Source: GAO State and Local Governments’ Fiscal Outlook, March 2010

the size of the fiscal gap
The Size of the “Fiscal Gap”
  • To close the fiscal gap would require a 12.3%reduction in state and local government expenditures each and every year through 2060
  • Or … a 12.3%increase in state and local revenues each and every year through 2060.
  • Or … a combination of the two
closing the fiscal gap
Closing the Fiscal Gap
  • From the GAO analysis, it is clear that ways must be found to control health care costs
  • Providing local services more effectively and efficiently will also help to close the fiscal gap
  • Regionalizing some local services can also help gain scale economies that help to make the gap manageable
but the real answer to fiscal health is
But the Real Answer to Fiscal Health is …
  • Boosting local economic development
  • Attracting business investment and jobs
  • Generating additional tax revenue from new and expanded business for vital public services
5 steps to becoming the ceo for economic development
5 Steps to becoming the “CEO for Economic Development”
  • Become SWOT aware
  • Capitalize on strengths; mitigate weaknesses
  • Identify appropriate industry sectors
  • Know the language and requirements of businesses
  • Build a business friendly environment
become swot aware
Become SWOT Aware

Objectively explore internal strengths and weaknesses

  • Inventory physical assets, local businesses, and knowledge/skills base
  • Understand the role of each municipal department in economic development
  • Engage business leaders, real estate experts, and other stakeholders
  • Prioritize economic development objectives; build consensus
become swot aware1
Become SWOT Aware

Objectively explore external opportunities and threats

  • Know your competition
  • Know what potential investors think of your city/town
  • Collaborate regionally
  • Take advantage of regional and state programs and resources
  • Know what is important to business in a global economy
capitalize on strengths and understand weaknesses
Capitalize on Strengths and Understand Weaknesses

Build upon Strengths

  • What do existing businesses need in order to grow?
  • Use that knowledge to define initial economic development strategies
  • Build critical mass and/or attract supporting businesses
  • Highlight strengths/assets of your municipality in marketing
  • Plan strategically based on strengths—envision 10 projects into the future
capitalize on strengths and understand weaknesses1
Capitalize on Strengths and Understand Weaknesses

Mitigate Weaknesses

  • Address those that are most important to businesses
  • Include economic development in all municipal policies
  • Use good communications practices to “rebrand” your community, internally and externally
  • Don’t try to hide weaknesses; it’s better to take action in correcting them
indentify appropriate industry sectors
Indentify Appropriate Industry Sectors
  • Target industries that make sense for your municipality
  • Consider physical assets, existing businesses, workforce, geography, and regional efforts
  • Try to build a critical mass or range of supplemental services
  • Use direct marketing within an industry
know the language and requirements of businesses
Know the Language and Requirements of Businesses
  • Speak their language and know the jargon
  • Appreciate “time to market” and other global economic realities
  • Learn “Deal Makers/Breakers”: parking, cost of rent, skilled labor force, access to markets, and timely permitting
  • Rely on“Deal Closers” sparingly: tax incentives
build a business friendly environment
Build a Business Friendly Environment
  • Streamline municipal services
  • Create One Stop permitting
  • Use transparent and efficient permitting processes
  • Provide check lists and technical guidance
  • Useoverlay zones, improvement districts, or develop pre-permitted sites
finally as ceo for economic development build a business friendly environment
Finally … as CEO for Economic Development build a Business Friendly Environment
  • Coordinate local and regional strategies for long run success
  • Build support within the community and among stakeholders to convey a consistent message
takeaway action items
Takeaway Action Items

What immediate steps can you take as the “CEO of Economic Development?”

Write down several action items

to take home.

slide41

Thank you!

Barry Bluestone

Director, The Dukakis Center

Northeastern University

617-373-7870

b.bluestone@neu.edu