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Nuclear Weapon Issues in the 21 st Century – Conference Review and the Future

This conference review discusses nuclear weapon issues in the 21st century, including arms control, nuclear proliferation, ballistic missile defense, and mass casualty terrorism. It also explores the role of nuclear energy and international governance in addressing these issues.

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Nuclear Weapon Issues in the 21 st Century – Conference Review and the Future

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  1. Nuclear Weapon Issues in the 21st Century – Conference Review and the Future Pierce S. Corden, Visiting Scholar Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy American Association for the Advancement of Science 3 November 2013

  2. Course Focal Points --Arms Control Specifically • Primarily bilateral : building on the US-Russian framework of agreement • Nuclear weapon “modernization” • Monitoring and verification • Arms control/weapon policies

  3. Course Focal Points – the CTBT • Monitoring for nuclear explosions – xenon • Monitoring for nuclear explosions – seismology • On-site inspections • Stockpile stewardship and the NAS Report

  4. Course Focal Points – Ballistic Missile Defense • The NAS Study on ballistic missile defense • Science, technology and politics of BMD

  5. Course Focal Points – Nuclear Proliferation • Evolution of the non-proliferation regime • The DPRK, India and Pakistan • Enrichment technologies and blend-down • Monitoring the FMCT • Nuclear forensics • Iran

  6. Course Focal Points – Mass Casualty Terrorism • S&T for homeland security • Risks and responses to mass terrorism • Terrorism and nuclear detection • Scanning vehicles for nuclear materials

  7. Issues for the Future • Global stability • Understanding what “proliferation” means • The moving baseline • Starting from 1945 • What is the current situation? • Which way will the vector point? • The role of nuclear energy • The role of international governance

  8. Stability in the International System

  9. Understanding What “Proliferation” Means A state acquires demonstrated (or clandestine) nuclear weapons capability: nuclear testing, delivery means (horizontal) A state adds to its capabilities (vertical) A state gives up capabilities (reversal of proliferation) A non-state actor acquires weapons (terrorism) A state acquires latent capabilities (materials, knowledge, delivery means)

  10. The Moving Baseline The number of states changes over time The number of acknowledged possessors of nuclear weapons changes The number of states with latent capabilities changes The role of non-state actors changes The international political “matrix” evolves The “big” problems: continuity and change

  11. Starting from 1945 By nuclear weapon state (a defined category) By testing: 1945, 1949, 1952, 1961, 1964, 1974, 1998, 2006 Covert acquisition Delivery vehicles: aircraft; missiles; submarines; artillery; mines; people Highly enriched uranium; plutonium: nuclear reactors, enrichment plants, reprocessing The vectors over time

  12. The Current Situation The world has come close to nuclear catastrophe more than once From the standpoint of net proliferation, the 1960s - 80s represent the maximum risk to date From the standpoint of proliferation “horizontally”, the situation has fluctuated, but is somewhat worse today From the standpoint of proliferation “vertically”, the situation is mixed From the standpoint of non-state actors, the picture is unclear

  13. Thinking about the Future The US and RF are sharply down, from a very high level The UK and France are somewhat down, from a high level China is somewhat up from a high level India and Pakistan are sharply up from a low level North Korea is roughly neutral from a low level, but the direction of movement is uncertain The net vector is sharply down

  14. The Role of Nuclear Energy What is the issue? Brazil, Iran, India, Pakistan, Japan Latent capabilities and the level playing field Carbon and a “nuclear renaissance” Alternatives

  15. The Role of International Governance Failed Baruch, Gromyko Plans Antarctic, Outer Space, and Seabed Treaties LTBT, TTBT/PNET, CTBT NPT, Tlatelolco, Rarotonga, Pelindaba, Bangkok, CANWFZ (Semipalatinsk) SALT, INF, START, SORT, New START Cutoff, Security Assurances MTCR, ZBM?, CFE/CSBMs Going to zero nuclear weapons (all vectors reach zero)

  16. STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL

  17. Arms Control Timeline, Showing Intersections/Overlaps between Multi(Tri)lateral and Bilateral Tracks 1946 53 56 61 63 67 68 71 72 74 76 77 79 80 84 87 90 91 93 96 02 13 Baruch Atoms IAEA LTBT OST NPT BWTC ENMOD CCW [73 MBFR]CFE CWC CTBT Plan for Peace (tril) (tril) [GSE] NPTRCs N... N… N... N... N.. N.. N.. N.. Antarctic Tlatelolco Raratonga Pelindaba (LANWFZ) (SPNWFZ) (ANWFZ) Seabeds Bangkok Semipalatinsk [05]SEANWFZ [06](CANWFZ) [75 Helsinki] [86 Stockholm] CSBMS (Vienna Doc 90, 92, 94, 99, 11)  McCloy- SALT I TTBT/PNET [SALT II] INF START I[II] SORT New START Zorin [CTBT trilat] Nuc.Sec.Summ. 20

  18. The Take-Away • Nuclear weapons are ultimately problematic. • Nuclear weapons are fundamentally destabilizing. • With good reason, the international community is nearly unanimous in a determination to eliminate them.

  19. US “Baker” Nuclear Test, 23 Kilotons,1946

  20. French “Canopus” Test, 900 Kilotons, 1971

  21. USSR “Tsar Bomba” Test, 50,000 KT, 1961

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