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Water Resources Development Commission (HB 2661) Water Supply & Demand Working Group – Water Supply Sub Committee Major Existing Supply Data and Studies. Wednesday, January 5, 2011. Existing Supply Data and Studies.

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wednesday january 5 2011

Water Resources Development Commission (HB 2661)Water Supply & Demand Working Group – Water Supply Sub Committee Major Existing Supply Data and Studies

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

existing supply data and studies
Existing Supply Data and Studies
  • Demand and Supply Assessments for Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott AMA’s (ADWR, 2010)
  • Water Use Data for Pinal AMA and Santa Cruz AMA’s (ADWR, 2009)
  • Water Use Data for GW Basins outside of AMA’s (ADWR, 2008 and USGS, 2009)
slide3
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Reclamation/CR Basin States, in Draft)
  • North Central Arizona Water Supply Study Report of Findings (Reclamation, 2006)
  • Augmentation Alternatives for the Sierra Vista Sub-watershed, Arizona, Appraisal Report (Reclamation, 2007)
  • Central Yavapai Highlands Water Resources Management Study (Reclamation, 2009)
existing supply data and studies vulnerability sustainability issues
Existing Supply Data and StudiesVulnerability/ Sustainability Issues
  • Water Level Change Analysis for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 1 (ADWR, 2010 revised)
  • Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)
demand and supply assessments for phoenix tucson and prescott ama s
Demand and Supply Assessments for Phoenix, Tucson and Prescott AMA’s
  • Historical Water Demand and Supply Water Characteristics for 1985-2006
  • Multiple Demand and Supply Projections out to 2025
water use data for pinal and santa cruz ama s
Water Use Data for Pinal and Santa Cruz AMA’s
  • Historical Water Demand and Supply Water Characteristics for 1985-2006
  • Assessment Reports in Draft
water use data for gw basins outside of ama s
Water Use Data for GW Basins outside of AMA’s
  • GW Withdrawals (USGS, 2009) for 1991-2007
  • SW Diversions (ADWR, 2008) for 1991-2007
  • Effluent Demand data from 13 basins c. 2005 (ADWR, 2009)
colorado river basin water supply and demand study reclamation cr basin states in draft
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Reclamation/CR Basin States, in Draft)
  • Define current and future imbalances in water supply and demand (2010-2060)
  • Geographic Scope
    • Current Colorado River Contractors
      • Mainstem
      • Central Arizona
    • Other Rural Areas
      • North Central Arizona
      • Central Yavapai Highlands
      • Upper San Pedro
colorado river basin water supply and demand study
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study
  • Unmet Demand =

Demand – (Locally Available Supplies)

  • Locally Available Supplies have been estimated for each of the areas of interest
    • Mainstem: Current Colorado River Entitlement
    • Central Arizona: AMA Assessment Data
    • Other Rural Areas: Data from Reclamation Studies
water level change analysis for arizona water atlas vol 9 adwr in draft
Water Level Change Analysis for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Statistical data on groundwater level changes from the late 1980’s/early 1990’s to the mid to late 2000’s
  • Water level change statistics compiled for each groundwater basin and subbasin in the state
  • Accompanying map shows water level changes (positive, negative, or zero) over time period
slide22
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Reservoir Storage Volumes on Colorado, Salt/Verde, and Gila Rivers (1980-2008)
slide24
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Temperature and Precipitation Data by Planning Area (1930-2002) (non-AMA’s)
slide26
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Winter Precipitation Departures from Average (1000-1988)
  • Woodhouse et al. (2010) argue that the mid–12th-century drought, whose severity and duration exceeded anything in the historical record, can be used to exemplify the severe droughts that may occur in the future
slide28
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Categories
      • Physical Supply Constraints
      • Current Demand Exceeds Supply
      • Sensitivity to Extended Drought or Shortage
      • Legal Considerations
      • Environmental Impacts
vulnerability assessment categories criteria and metrics for arizona water atlas vol 9
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9

A) Physical Supply Constraints

A1 Dependency on non-renewable supply

A2 Groundwater is geologically limited

A3 Declining water levels in demand centers

A4 Water Budget Deficit or Water Deficit Assessment

A5 Insufficient infrastructure (current)

A6 Regional water quality exceedences

A7 Contamination restricts use as drinking water supplies

A8 Groundwater data needs

vulnerability assessment categories criteria and metrics for arizona water atlas vol 91
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9

B) Current Demand Exceeds Supply

B1 Current high rate of growth

B2 Meeting current demand has been identified as a problem

B3 Large number of inadequacy determinations (outside AMAs; all reasons)

B4 Lack of a regional or local water resource management authority

B5 Demand data are lacking in any given sector (Environment, M&I or Agriculture)

vulnerability assessment categories criteria and metrics for arizona water atlas vol 92
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9

C) Sensitivity to Extended Drought or Shortage

C1 Dependency on surface water or drought sensitive groundwater

C2 Drought-caused supply problems in the past

C3 Insufficient long-term storage (dams, recharge)

C4 Weak Drought Preparedness (Community Water System Drought Plan Evaluation)

C5 Historic drought trends/model predictions show climate impacts

vulnerability assessment categories criteria and metrics for arizona water atlas vol 93
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9

D) Legal Considerations

D1 Low priority Colorado River rights

D2 Groundwater Transportation

D3 Unquantified Federal Reserved Right Claims

D4 Endangered species habitat impacts access to supply

vulnerability assessment categories criteria and metrics for arizona water atlas vol 94
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9

E) Environmental Values

E1 Presence of a perennial/intermittent stream in the basin

E2 Potential for pumping to impact stream

E3 Instream Flow rights

E4 Subsidence (active or potential)

E5 Impaired reaches affect use for environment

E6 Environmental water needs identified as an issue

E7 Unknown vulnerability (It is unknown what the impacts of other sector’s demand will be on the environment in a basin)

vulnerability assessment of climate induced water shortage in phoenix gober and kirkwood 2009
Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)
  • Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Uses a water-balance simulation model to assess the vulnerability to long-term water shortage
  • Considers runoff scenarios for the Salt/Verde system (19% to 123% of historical mean) and mainstream of the Colorado River (61% to 118%)
  • Considered growth limits, land-use change and groundwater management strategies
vulnerability assessment of climate induced water shortage in phoenix gober and kirkwood 20091
Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)
  • Results and Conclusions
    • Wide range of uncertainty about how much water will be available for from the Colorado and Salt/Verde systems
    • Designing a system to supply enough water for current consumption rates in the most pessimistic climate change scenarios would be very expensive and perhaps, physically impossible
    • Designing a system for a best guess case could leave vulnerable to water shortage with little time to adapt.