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Jobs and Minnesota’s Future. Tom Stinson, State Economist January, 2011. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End of the Road). Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average Our population growth rate leads the frost belt

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Jobs and minnesota s future l.jpg

Jobs and Minnesota’s Future

Tom Stinson, State Economist

January, 2011


Minnesota has been very successful especially for a cold weather state at the end of the road l.jpg
Minnesota Has Been Very Successful(Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End of the Road)

  • Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average

  • Our population growth rate leads the frost belt

  • We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators







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Minnesota’s Current Success Is Due to Decisions Made 50+ Years Ago

  • Private sector and public sector decisions established the foundation for growth in Minnesota’s economy

  • Dealing with challenges brought by the baby boom was a key to our success

  • Wise investments were made

  • Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success


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Midway Through This Decade Minnesota’s Economy Was Struggling

  • Per capita personal income growth (2004-06)

    • 3.5 percent – Rank 47th

  • Real per capita gross state product growth

    • 1.4 percent – Rank 45th

  • Payroll employment

    • 1.2 percent – U.S., 1.6 percent

  • Unemployment Rate at U.S. average






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Minnesota Employment Is Recovering Struggle Faster than the U.S. Average





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We Are Headed to a New Normal Recession

  • The Great Recession Is over, but we will not return to where we were

  • We are moving to a New Normal

  • Minnesota is not alone—this a global phenomenon

  • Those who recognize this and adapt first will be most successful

  • The next four years will be critical to Minnesota’s future


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Workforce Development RecessionWill Be Crucial to Minnesota’s Economic Future

  • Number of workers

  • Quality of workers

    • New entrants

    • Incumbent workforce


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From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will RecessionSee Large Increases Age 50s and 60s

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center, rev 2007

Numbers are rounded



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Competition for the Future Workforce Will Increase 2008

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer Mn Proj



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For Many Occupations, Replacements Will Outnumber New Job GrowthProjected Openings In Minnesota Occupations 2009-19

DEED projections. Percent of 2009 level


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The New 3 R’s for Economic Success Growth

  • Retention

  • Recruitment

  • Retraining


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Education Is The Key To Productivity GrowthMinnesota High School Graduation Ratio

2007-08 Mn Dept of Education 5 year graduation rate. Percent of 9th graders who graduate within 5 years