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PAthways to post Carbon Society Kick Off Meeting

PAthways to post Carbon Society Kick Off Meeting. WP 5 – Modelling. WP 5 Modelling. Partners : LEPII, Enerdata Objective : Development of existing modelling tools to be used in scenarios quantification Task 5.1 up grading of VLEEM (NRD)

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PAthways to post Carbon Society Kick Off Meeting

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  1. PAthways to post Carbon SocietyKick Off Meeting WP 5 – Modelling

  2. WP 5 Modelling • Partners : LEPII, Enerdata • Objective : Development of existing modelling tools to be used in scenarios quantification • Task 5.1 up grading of VLEEM (NRD) • Improvement of data bases (urban mobility, urbanisation) – adaptation of the model structure (different urban schemes) • Task 5.2 up grading of POLES (LEPII) • Illustrate new adaptation margins, provide more realistic techno economic evolution profiles under high emission reduction scenarios • Task 5.3 linkage POLES – VLEEM (NRD) • Construction of a formal interface between VLEEM results and demand functions of POLES

  3. The POLES model • A model that is developed jointly at LEPII (Grenoble), ENERDATA (Grenoble) and JRC-IPTS (Seville) • A recursive simulation model of the world energy system in 47 regions, running now year by year to 2100 … • With details on future energy technologies (power sector, H2 production, transport, steel, etc.) - TECHPOL database (appr. 50) • Allows to simulate climate / technical policies (constraints on GHG emissions) with adaptation of the energy system

  4. Resources Technologies Technologies Emission Constraint Emissions Emissions Cons, Prod Cons, Prod POP GDP The POLES model year-by-year recursive simulation process 47 Regions

  5. POLES : Large scale power technologies

  6. Results of the model (1) : adaptation of the system under high CO² constraints • In the Climate Change scenario, global energy consumption stops increasing after 2050, the demand for fossil fuels is strongly reduced, the share of non CO² energy sources is increasing Reference scenario Carbon constrained scenario

  7. Results of the model (2) : development of new technologies in the transport sector • Detailed description of technologies allows major evolutions in the portfolio of technology on the long term • With the recent introduction of network effects simulation of lock-in effects or more selective technology mix are possible

  8. Results of the model (3) : emergence of low CO2 technologies in the steel sector • The introduction of a strong carbon value in the model stimulates the development of low CO2 technologies • But the demand for steel is not impacted albeit high price increase because no subsitution among materials is introduced in the model Carbon constrained scenario Reference

  9. Evolution of the POLES model • Longer term perspectives and simulation of strong climate policies have necessitated constant evolutions of the model : • From incremental to radical innovations • Introduction of very low emission demand-side options • The challenge in the PACT project : to link evolution in urban density profiles, infrastructures, lifestyles and behaviours • Integrate the urban dimension in order to: • Reflect major transformation in lifestyles and urbanisation schemes • Introduce new margins of manoeuvre • Provide more realistic evolution of the system under very high emission reduction scenarios • Improvements in three directions • Urbanisation / buildings • Transport / mobility • Materials

  10. Work perspectives in the materials dimension • Introduction of detailed demand functions • Steel : buildings, vehicles, others (Cf ULCOS project) • Glass : buildings, vehicles, others (food ?) • Cement : buildings, infrastructure, others • Introduction of specific production technologies • Steel : Cf ULCOS project and update • Cement : to be done • Glass : to be explored • Introduction of materials substitution ? • Difficult to introduce endogenous material substitution (because some materials are not explicit in the model) • Possibility to simulate substitution through exogenous evolutions in materials demand (inputs from other WPs)

  11. Work perspectives in the transport dimension • Urban density is a major variable for the evolution of demand mobility and the development of public transport • The objective is to establish a relation between urban density, mobility (passenger . Km) and type of vehicles (modal split ?) • Example of inputs expected from other SPs • Evolution of mobility as a function of density • Demand for material in vehicles / public transport • …

  12. Worl perspectives in the buildings dimension • The objective is to establish a : • Relation between density and shape of buildings (high, middle, low height) • Relation between shape of buildings and energy / material consumption • Example of inputs expected from other SPs • Basic relation between population, urban density, and type of buildings • Surface of dwellings and service per inhabitant • Energy / material consumption per type of buildings ; ex. Potential substitution from cement to wood ? • …

  13. Mimetic Development Sustainable Development Urban density : a key toward sustainable development ? 1 500 h/km2 Urban Sprawling 15 000 100% Individual housing 0%100 Vehicles/1000h 600 i.e. Energy consumption ?

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