YOU, ME AND RC28

1. YOU, ME AND RC28 WHERE IS THE NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS MEETING OF THE RESEARCH COMMITTEE ON SOCIAL STRATIFICATION AND MOBILITY OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX APRIL 13-16, 2011

2. WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MEETS RC28 NEWCOMERS, • THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN IS THAT ONE RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28 • I HAVE THREE DISAPPOINTMENTS FOR YOU: • I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS WRONG: LATER RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER ONES POSED ISSUES POORLY • THE SHIFT WITHIN RC28 FROM STATUS ATTAINMENT MODELS TO CLASS ANALYSIS MARKED A NEW GENERATION, BUT WILL THE ISSUE OF MACRO VERSUS MICRO CLASSES LEAD TO A NEW GENERATION TOO? • HAVE RC28 UNIVERSITY SOCIOLOGISTS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THINK TANK ECONOMISTS WHO RAISE INCOME MOBILITY QUESTIONS?

4. MY CRITICAL LEARNING PERIOD IN RC28 SOCIOLOGY INCLUDED THE COVER OF A NOW DEFUNCT BRITISH WEEKLY

5. THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITYAND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH & RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN SOCIAL MOBILITY NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS SHIFT FROM THE GLASS GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE GENERATION

6. AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME I DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO GENERATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE RESEARCH OF THE OLDER GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED, BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN

8. THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS, AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER: FIRST GENERATION SECOND GENERATION THIRD GENERATION FOURTH GENERATION FIFTH GENERATION PERCENTAGES LINEAR REGRESSION ODDS RATIO’S EVENT HISTORY MODELS ??? LIPSET 1956 DUNCAN 1967 GOLDTHORPE 1978 BLOSSFELD 1986 ???

9. FIFTH GENERATION ??? FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS IS NO BIG THING IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES IS NO BIG THING

10. GENERATIONS ARE NOT MARKED BY NEW METHODS THE NEW GENERATION IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES ANNOUNCES LOUDLY THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS OF THE OLD GENERATION POSE THE ISSUE POORLY THE OLD GENERATION USED METHODS THAT INCORPORATE HYPOTHESES THAT ARE PRECISELY AT ISSUE

11. LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING? THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE, THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT ‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’ THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN AND DESTINATION

12. MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A LADDER BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3 WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS UNIFORM YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2 THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3 THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S

13. MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL INVESTIGATED PERSONS HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S POPULATION THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY

14. EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE CURRENT JOB OF THE MEMBERS OF ONE SOCIETY AT ONE POINT IN TIME HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35, ‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION: THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN COHORTS

15. TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRJECTORIES ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT AGE-, COHORT AND PERIOD EFFECTS

16. THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING: IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS HIGHER FIRST JOB? THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28

18. SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS WHO DECLARE THE QUESTIONS OF OLDER GENERATIONS WRONG BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW MEMBERS OF OLDER GENERATIONS SAY THAT QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS ARE WRONG

19. FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF FIRST GENERATION TO THE EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD GENERATION RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT MEN ONLY ARE THESE GAPS BEING FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN? DO THESE QUESTIONS ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF OLDER GENERATIONS?

20. THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED, QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE MISGUIDED TOO THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG, DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME OF THE COUPLE

21. IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS DO NOT JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF THE DEPENDENCY: 1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME? 2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND? 3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE? 4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?

22. THE ISSUE OF THE HOUSEHOLD DIVISION OF LABOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR HUSBAND DOES SO ARE MISGUIDED THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY HAVE A POLUTION PHOBIA THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS: 1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES POSITIVELY RELATED? 2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES? 3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS? WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!

24. THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING MOBILITY QUESTIONS THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXISANT SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE EUROPEAN WING OF RC28 CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT

25. RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN: 1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN? 2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE EXPERIENCE)? 3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDER-REPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?

26. AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION, RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION - DISCRIMINATION BY MEN IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE: 4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER THEN MEN? EVEN MORE TO THE POINT: 5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?

27. THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009 GENDER OF SUPERVISOR MALE FEMALE 88 % 12 % 56 % 44 % THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE: 5.8 GENDER OF MALE EMPLOYED PERSON FEMALE

29. THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING (HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED? DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA? RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR MICRO CLASS MOBILITY, SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?

30. THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR FOUR THREE DECADES AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS

31. TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975 RISE BECAUSE OF 1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS? 2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS? 3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE MOTHERS? 4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS? 5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY? 6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES? 7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON EARNINGS? 8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?

32. ECONOMISTS STUDIED INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THE 1980s THEY FOUND CORRELATIONS BELOW 0.2 THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE CORRELATION OF 0.4 FOUND BY SOCIOLOGISTS BETWEEN THE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS OF FATHERS AND SONS ECONOMISTS REVIEWING DUNCAN’S WORK, POINTED OUT THAT OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE MIGHT MEASURE THE LIFE-TIME EARNINGS OF A JOB (PERMANENT INCOME) WHEN IN THE 1990s THE CORRELATION WAS NOT COMPUTED FOR THE LOGS OF YEARLY EARNINGS, BUT FOR THREE-YEAR AVERAGES, THE CORRELATION ROSE TO THE LEVEL OF THE FINDINGS OF SOCIOLOGISTS SOLON, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 1992

33. THE QUESTION OF WHETHER INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY DIFFERS FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY WAS FEATURED IN 2007 IN AN OECD REPORT BY D’ADDIO INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF DISADVANTAGE THAT REPORT REFERRED TO A THEN UNPUBLISHED PAPER BY JÄNTTI ET AL

34. THE PRIME FINDING WAS THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWING THAT IF THE GINI INDICATES MORE INEQUALITY, EARNINGS MOBILITY IS LOWER DO YOU SPOT YOUR ‘OWN’ COUNTRY?

35. UPON SEEING THESE FIGURES, I STARTED HUNTING FOR DUTCH FIGURES STATISTICS NETHERLANDS WAS NOT FORTHCOMING A TABLE PUBLISHED BY STATISTICS NETHERLANDS IN 2000, AND MADE BY THE ECONOMIST CÖRVERS IT CROSS-CLASSIFIES THE EARNINGS QUINTILES OF FATHERS IN 1981 AND THOSE OF THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998 THIS TABLE HAS AN R OF 0.24 IF A FATHER’S EARNINGS ARE ONE PERCENT HIGHER, THE EARNINGS OF HIS CHILD ARE 0,21 PERCENT HIGHER I CANNOT FIGURE OUT TO WHAT EXTENT THESE FIGURES ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES THE FIGURES REFER TO 797 FATHER-CHILD COUPLES, STARTING OUT WITH A MUCH LARGER SAMPLE I981 FATHERS HAD TO BE YOUNGER THAN 55 YEARS, THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998 HAD TO BE AT LEAST 35 YEARS

36. THE OECD REGARDED AS SURPRISING THE FINDING THAT A LOT OF INCOME INEQUALITY DOES NOT GO TOGETHER WITH A LOT OF INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY IS THERE A SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESIS PROPOSED BY A RC28 SOCIOLOGIST FROM WHICH IT MAY DERIVED THAT IF INCOME INEQUALITY IS HIGHER, INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY IS HIGHER TOO? THE RC28 MACRO HYPOTHESES POSTULATE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND IDEOLOGY ON ANY FORM OF SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND CLOSURE

37. AVERAGING EARNINGS OVER THREE YEARS DOES AWAY WITH EFFECTS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN A COUNTRY THE EXPLANATION OF RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS FOR INTERGENERATION TRANSMISSION IS THAT A PERSON’S EDUCATION IS CRUCIAL WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPENDENCE OF EDUCATION UPON BACKGROUND IN A COUNTRY BEING INFLUENCED BY A COUNTRY’S POLITICAL IDEOLOGY THE EDUCATION OF PERSONS DEPENDS UPON THE CLASS AND EDUCATION OF THEIR PARENTS WHILE THESE PERSONS WERE YOUNG DO ECONOMISTS GO AFTER THE INCOME OF PARENTS WHEN A CHILD WAS STILL YOUNG?

38. THE COVER FROM A BRITISH NEWSPAPER DATED JANUARY 22ND 2011 IT DEPICTS INCOME INEQUALITY AND SUGGESTS THAT IF INEQUALITY IS HIGHER, MOBILITY IS MORE DIFFICULT THE COVER IS FROM THE ECONOMIST

39. IF ONE BELONGS TO THE LOWER QUINTILES, ONE’S LADDER IS NOT LONG ENOUGH AND PERHAPS THE PERSON STANDING ON TOP WILL KICK YOU DOWN THE QUESTION OF INCOME MOBILITY IS WORTHY OF RC28 ATTENTION BUT NOT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT MORE INEQUALITY MAKES FOR MORE MOBILITY INEQUALITY MAY MOTIVATE, BUT IS A BARRIER

41. THIS POWERPOINT IS PLACED ON MY WEBSITE SEARCH IN GOOGLE WOUT ULTEE THE FIRST HIT IS THE SITE YOU LOOK FOR GO ON THE LEFT TO PRESENTATIONS, THEN GO TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS, THEN GO TO ESSEX 2011 If only my portrait appears, click the compatibility icon