Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?. Erica Gierke Advisors: Chris Fernandes and Stephen Schmidt (Eco). Agenda. Economic problems of lock in and vaporware Experimental Structure Results Conclusion. What is Lock In?. Why Does It Matter?.
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Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection? Erica Gierke Advisors: Chris Fernandes and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)
Agenda • Economic problems of lock in and vaporware • Experimental Structure • Results • Conclusion
Why Does It Matter? • Adopting standards makes improvement hard • Standards are good, static standards are bad
Contributing Factors Compatibility Network Externalities Example: How useful is an instant messenger that no one else uses?
Preannouncements • Many technology products are preannounced • Give insight into future products available • Sometimes truthful, sometimes not
Vaporware • A deliberate false product announcement • Can influence other producers and consumers • Problem- false announcements can delay technology even more
How does vaporware hurt? Vaporware announcements prolong lock in Hypothesis:
Producers Consumers The Experimental Program Database Backend
The Experiment B2 A2 $$ A1 $
Producer Start Production Page Update Database/ Production Feedback Vaporware Announcement Producer Feedback Producer Wait Submit Announcement/ Announcement Feedback The Producer’s Interface
Consumer Start Consumer Wait Consumer Purchase Consumer Update/ Purchase Feedback Consumer Feedback The Consumer’s Interface
Data • Collected data over 4 sessions • Two 4 round and two 8 round sessions • Most interesting data from 8 round sessions
Data Best Progress For Producers Inefficient Progression A B C D E F G H I
Session 3- Producers A B C D E F G H I
Session 4- Producers A B C D E F G H I
Vaporware Announcements • Session three, one announcement • Session four, one producer announced most rounds
Session 3- Announcements A B C D E F G H I
Session 4- Announcements A B C D E F G H I
Conclusion • Vaporware impedes progress • Sessions with less announcements progressed further