Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market

1. Minnesota’s Changing Labor Market Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Manager Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

2. About DEED’s Regional Analysts • Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new research • Extend access to DEED reports and statistics • Conduct presentations and training onregional economy and labor market • Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions” • Five regional analystsstationed across the state Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

3. Economics is “a dreary, desolate and indeed quite abject and distressing science. What we might call the Dismal Science.” -Thomas Carlyle, 1849 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

4. Our Labor Market Environment • Demographics • Wealth • Industry Mix • Globalization • Technology • Economic Restructuring • Other….

5. Recessions • Recessions restructure economies- creative destruction at work. • Some industries will collapse and be selected out of the economy • Some industries will survive but drastically restructure operations • New technology • New markets • New products • Likewise- some occupations will collapse or be restructured • changing skill sets • Recessions set the course for the future- jobs, consumption/prices, globalization, regional vitality, etc.. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

6. Employment Trends Over Ten Years

7. Minnesota’s Unemployment Rate Seems to have Stabilized

8. Unemployment Varies with Region Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

9. Industries losing jobs in MN over the last 3 years • Total Employment: -97,500 since Feb. 2008 • Construction: -24,650 (-34,100 in 4 years) • Manufacturing: -35,600 (-41,000 in 4 years) • Wholesale: -4,800 • Retail: -12,500 • Transportation: -650 • Information: -4,650 • Finance: -5,100 • Professional & Technical Services: -8,100 • Other Services: -4,450 • Government: -8,000

10. -975 jobs -3.3% 2-Year Employment Change By EDR, 2007-09 -1,022 jobs -2.8% -5,233 jobs -3.7% -2,595 jobs -4.4% -1,229 jobs -1.5% -9,659 jobs -6.0% -2,778 jobs -5.9% -3,225 jobs -6.4% -574 jobs -3.1% -89,898 jobs -5.5% -1,151 jobs -2.1% -9,498 jobs -4.1% -5,360 jobs -5.1% Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

11. Temp Agency Employment tells us Something about Total Employment

12. Some Industries are adding back jobs after 3 years of losses • Total Employment: +44,200 • Leisure & Hospitality: +12,350 • Healthcare: +9,100 • Employment Services: +5,250 • Transport. & Warehouse: +5,250 • Wholesale: +5,000 • Insurance: +2,300 • Education: +2,300 • Retail: +2,150 • Construction of Buildings: +1,700 • Machinery Mfg.: +1,350 • Corporate HQ: +1,200 • Building Contractors: +1,200 • Fabricated Metal Mfg.: +800 • Computer Consulting: +550 • Transportation Mfg.: +450 • Food Mfg.: +400 • Banking: +300 • Medical Device Mfg.: +160 • Medical Supplies Mfg: +200 • Mining & Logging: +150

13. Industry Projections: MN, 2011-12

14. Employment During Recession and Recovery Late 2012 ~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs Actual Projected Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast, Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

15. Employment Decline Relative to Previous Recessions Current Recession Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

16. Where are the jobs now? The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey: • Identify occupations in demand • Determine education and experience needed for job vacancies by region • Describe job vacancies in terms of: • Wages • Benefits • Part-time/full-time • Temporary/seasonal or permanent • Numbers and job titles of current openings www.positivelyminnesota.com/Data_Publications/Data/All_Data_Tools/Job_Vacancy_Survey Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

17. What Industries Set Minnesota Apart and How are They Doing? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

18. Why are Distinguishing industries Important? Determine Wealth Creation Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

19. Crop Prod Animal Prod. Wood Mfg. Transportation Mfg. Wholesale Trade Nursing Care Facilities Crop Prod. Forestry Utilities Heavy Construction Food Mfg. Wood Products Nursing Care Facilities Distinguishing Industries By EDR, 2009 Crop Prod Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Fabricated Metal Mfg. Machinery Mfg Wholesale Trade Building Material Stores Nursing Care Facilities Mining Forestry Paper Mfg. Water Transport. Accommodation Nursing Care Facilities Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Printing Non-Metallic Mineral Mfg Fabricated Metal Mfg. Electrical Equip. Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Crop Prod Animal Prod. Construction of Bldgs. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Machinery Mfg Wholesale Trade Waste Mgmt. Nursing Care Facilities Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Leather Mfg. Non Metallic Mineral Mfg Computer & Electronics Mfg. Clinics Nursing Care Facilities Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

20. Distinguishing Industries By EDR, 2009 Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Paper Mfg. Fabricated Metal Machinery Mfg. Computer Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Nursing Care Forestry Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Printing Furniture Mfg. Nursing Care Accommodation Forestry Animal Prod. Heavy Construction Wood Mfg. Fabricated Metal Nonstore Retail Nursing Care Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Printing Nonmetallic Mineral Mfg. Primary Metal Mfg. Electrical Equip. Mfg. Nursing Care Social Assistance Printing Computer & Electronics Mfg. Miscellaneous Mfg. Air Transport Railroads Data Processing & Hosting Insurance Corporate Headquarters Animal Prod. Food Mfg. Wood Mfg. Machinery Mfg. Furniture Mfg. Wholesale Trucking Nursing Care Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

21. About 4 unemployed for every opening. Hiring demand is the highest for many healthcare-related occupations Architecture & Engineering Computers Business/Financial Operations Healthcare practitioners Personal Services Healthcare support Bldg/Grounds Maintenance Food Preparation Job Vacancy Survey Findings 54,670 total job openings in the Minnesota job market at time of survey (2Q, 2011)

22. The gap between opportunities and the jobless has widened but is now closing

23. Attributes of Metro Job Vacancies: Q2, 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

24. Available job openings require higher amounts of education

25. Unemployment by Education: U.S., August 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

26. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

27. Unemployment by Age:U.S., August, 2011 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

28. 2009-19 Employment Projections for Minnesota • Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally). • Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict: • Recessions, depressions, energy crises... • Wars • Natural Disaster • Technology change • Business Processes • Legislation Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

29. Employment Projections: MN, 2009-19 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

30. Some Specific Industries will lose jobs Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

31. Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment 2000? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

32. Shift to Services • Not all bad. • Services make up an increasingly large share of the value of manufactures. • Rolls Royce “Power by the Hour” • Skill sets need to shift beyond the shop floor or computer terminal. • Specialization of products, careers and skills will be more important.

33. 2009-19 Regional Employment Projections +19,109 jobs, +7.6% +13,797 jobs, +8.9% +26,602, +12.9% +144,099 jobs, +8.5% +22,899 jobs, +8.9% +10,409 jobs, +5.0% Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

34. MN Occupational Projections: 2009-19 Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

35. Some Occupations will lose jobs… Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

36. Employment and Innovation Employment Commoditization Maturation or “the Golden Age” Microchips? Correction Computer Mfg? Online Education? IT Services? Expansion/ Speculation? Mortgage Innovations? Inception Nanotech? Green Tech? Time

37. Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Reading Comprehension Active Listening Speaking Writing Active Learning Coordination Monitoring Instructing Critical Thinking Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations: Customer Service Mathematics Clerical Education/training English Sales/marketing Psychology Computers/electronics Administration/management Skill and Knowledge Areas for “In Demand” Jobs

38. Demographics: Labor Shortage? Not any time soon. Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

39. Labor Growth will Slow Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office MN Demographic Center

40. Minnesota is Aging When will they retire? How productive can they be? Will there be enough? Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office

41. Rural America is bottoming out Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office MN Demographic Center

42. Aging will shift government priorities

43. Where can I get this information? • Kyle Uphoff (RAO Manager): (651)-259-7185 • Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320)-231-5174 • Northeast: Drew Digby (218)-723-4774 • Northwest: Nate Dorr (218)-333-8220 • Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651)-642-0728 • Kyle.Uphoff@State.mn.us • Follow on LinkedIn • www.positivelyminnesota.com • Follow DEED on Twitter Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Analysis and Evaluation Office