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THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK. Risk in Uncertainty Seminar 13th November 2002 Vince Jenkins. WHAT DO WE MEAN?. RISK. RISK. CONSEQUENCE. LIKELIHOOD. HAZARD. CONSEQUENCE. LIKELIHOOD. RISK. HAZARD. Risk Perception & Aversion. What is risk as far as You are concerned

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the public perception of risk

THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF RISK

Risk in Uncertainty Seminar

13th November 2002

Vince Jenkins

slide4

RISK

CONSEQUENCE

LIKELIHOOD

HAZARD

slide5

CONSEQUENCE

LIKELIHOOD

RISK

HAZARD

risk perception aversion
Risk Perception & Aversion
  • What is risk as far as
  • You are concerned
  • The public are concerned
  • Your clientsare concerned
  • Owners~shareholders are concerned
risks perceived by different groups of people

Factor 1: Unknown risk

SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER

DNA RESEARCH

EARTH ORBITING SATELLITE

SPACE EXPLORATION

FOOD IRRADIATION

LASERS

NUCLEAR POWER

FOOD COLOURING

LAETRIL

SODIUM NITRATE

SACCHARINE

FLUORESCENT LIGHTS

WATER FLUORIDATION

COSMETICS

CHEMICAL DISINFECTANTS

FOOD PRESERVATIVES

NON-NUCLEAR ELECTRIC POWER

MICROWAVE OVENS

HYDROELECTRIC POWER

HAIR DYES

LIQUID NATURAL GAS

ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES

ASPIRIN

CHEMICAL FERTILIZERS

ASBESTOS

DIAGNOSTIC X-RAYS

RADIATION THERAPY

HERBICIDES

FOSSIL ELECTRIC POWER

DDT

PESTICIDES

CHRISTMAS TREE LIGHTS

Factor 2: Dread risk

JOGGING

PRESCRIPTION DRUGS

SST

SKYSCRAPERS

SUNBATHING

VACCINATIONS

ANTIBIOTICS

BRIDGES

VALIUM

HOME GAS FURNACES

NERVE GAS

HOME APPLIANCES

DARVON

ANESTHETICS

TRACTORS

MUSHROOM HUNTING

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

JUMBO JETS

ROLLER COASTERS

SKATEBOARDS

SCUBA DIVING

NATIONAL DEFENCE

OPEN-HEART SURGERY

PREGNANCY, CHILDBIRTH

SURGERY

POWER LAWN MOWERS

FIREWORKS

SURFING

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

CAFFEINE

RAILROADS

TERRORISM

SWIMMING POOLS

GENERAL AVIATION

MORPHINE

RECREATIONAL BOATING

BOXING

BARBITURATES

HOME POWER TOOLS

ANPHETAMINES

BICYCLES

FOOTBALL

SMOKING

HEROIN

WARFARE

DYNAMITE

MOTORCYCLES

DOWNHILL SKIING

MOUNTAIN CLIMBING

CRIME

HUNTING

POLICE WORK

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

MOTOR VEHICLES

FIREFIGHTING

HANDGUNS

Risks Perceived by Different Groups of People
passenger fatality by mode of travel

Fatality rate per 100 million

Mode Pass kms

Car 0.40

Van 0.20

TWMV 9.70

Pedal Cycle 4.30

Foot 5.30

Bus or Coach 0.04

Rail 0.10

Water 0.60

Air 0.03

Passenger Fatality by Mode of Travel

Pass journeys

4.5

2.7

100

12

5.1

0.3

2.7

25

55

Pass hours

15

6.6

300

60

20

0.1

4.8

12

15

diving the perception risk
Diving the Perception & Risk

Diving involves the following:

  • Throwing yourself off a perfectly serviceable boat
  • Immerse yourself in an alien environment
  • Your oxygen source is very finite
  • Risk of the bends etc, etc
mobile telephones
Mobile Telephones
  • Media concern - micro wave exposure
  • Sales gone down?
  • Why?
    • Immediate benefit
    • No obvious & immediate detriment to you
    • High degree of personal control
  • Long term…….?
slide14

RISK

BENEFITS

IMMEDIATE

CONSEQUENCES

mmr further combined chickenpox
MMR - further combined - Chickenpox
  • No proven link?
  • Reduction in vaccinations…..
  • Increase of measles & fatalities
  • Big industry involved……...
  • Lack of effective communication…?
slide17

Risk Comparisons - Individual Risk of Ingestion of Infectivity

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6

10-12

10-11

10-10

10-9

10-8

10-7

10-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

MINISCULE RISK

RISK RAPIDLY DECREASING RISK REMOTERISK ACCEPTED RAPIDLY INCREASING RISK

RISK MASSIVE

 Road Accidents

 All Accidents

 Dying from Cancer

 Accidents on Railway

95% range

Ingestion of Infectivity due to DRG

Death from Sporadic CJD

 Struck by lightning

HSE: Maximum Tolerable Risk

HSE: Broadly Acceptable Risk

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

+6

Derived From John Paling © The Environmental Institute 1992

The Paling Perspective Scale

how does business manage

Reputation damage

Bad press

How does Business Manage?
  • What measures are important to a company
  • Pro-active in managing the impacts on their business

Financial loss

summary
Summary
  • Public perception:
    • Consequences vs immediate benefit
    • Degree of control
    • Under estimate familiar risks
    • Over estimate unfamiliar ~ unpalatable risks
  • Consideration in government decisions
  • Business must take account of the public perspective
det norske veritas

DET NORSKE VERITAS

An Independent Foundation – Established 1864

Further information from:

Vince Jenkins, DNV, Palace House, 3 Cathedral St, London. SE1 9DE.

Tel: +44 (0)20-7716-6541 Fax: +44 (0)20-7357-0961

e-mail:vince.jenkins@dnv.com

DNV - April 96 - No. 1