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Overview

Training Programme Air Quality Monitoring, Emission Inventory and Source Apportionment Studies Source Dispersion Modelling Andreas Kerschbaumer Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Meteorologie Andreas.Kerschbaumer@FU-Berlin.de. Overview. Overview. General Introduction Statistical Models,

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Overview

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  1. Training ProgrammeAir Quality Monitoring, Emission Inventory and Source Apportionment StudiesSource Dispersion ModellingAndreas KerschbaumerFreie Universität Berlin, Institut für MeteorologieAndreas.Kerschbaumer@FU-Berlin.de

  2. Overview A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  3. Overview • General Introduction • Statistical Models, • Deterministic Models • Chemistry Transport Models • Theoretical aspects • Input data • Validation A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  4. Overview • Application of Chemistry Transport Models • Emission Scenarios, • Source Apportionment • Process Analysis A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  5. General Aspects • Statistical approach • Receptor Models • Based on measured pollutant concentrations • Valid for non-reactive (or slowly reactive) species • Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) • for source apportionments • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) • for source identification • Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) • for location and strength of emittors. A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  6. General Aspects • Statistical approach • Receptor Models • Based on measured pollutant concentrations • Valid for non-reactive (or slowly reactive) species • Air parcel trajectory analysis A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  7. Statistical approach • CMB aij source emission signature (composition) sj source contribution m = number of sources • Constant source emission composition • Non-reactive species • Sources contribute to concentration • Uncertainties are un-related • Number of sources ≤ number of species • Measurement errors random A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  8. Statistical approach • PCA A = correlation matrix between species ci and cj (over range k) x = Eigenvectors λ = Eigenvalues I = unity A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  9. Statistical approach • EOF A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  10. Statistical approach • Air Parcel Trajectories A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  11. Deterministic Models • CHEMISTRY-TRANSPORT-MODELS A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  12. Deterministic Models • Box model A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  13. Deterministic Models • Lagrange model A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  14. Deterministic Models • Gaussian models A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  15. Deterministic Models • Gaussian models • where • C(x, y, z) : pollutant concentration at point ( x, y, z ); • U: wind speed (in the x "downwind" direction, m/s) • σ: standard deviation of the concentration in the x and y direction, i.e., in the wind direction and cross-wind, in meters; • Q is the emission strength (g/s) • his the emission release height, A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  16. A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  17. A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  18. Chem. Transport Model 3-D Grid Modelling A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  19. Chem. Transport Model 3-D Grid Modelling A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  20. Chem. Transport Model A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  21. Chem. Transport Model A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  22. Tropospheric chemistry A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  23. Tropospheric chemistry A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  24. Emissions Anthropogenic PM2.5 Emissions for Europe A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  25. Emissions A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  26. Meteorology A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  27. Meteorology A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  28. Landuse A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  29. Validation A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  30. Validation REM_Calgrid: Ozone Validation at rual background station 1997 A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  31. Validation A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  32. Validation e Anorganisches PM10 Kohlenstoffhaltiges PM10 A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  33. Validation A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  34. APPLICATIONS REPRESENTATION OF CURRENT STATE • spatially homogenous A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  35. APPLICATIONS REPRESENTATION OF CURRENT STATE A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  36. APPLICATIONS REPRESENTATION OF CURRENT STATE A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  37. APPLICATIONS REPRESENTATION OF CURRENT STATE • temporally continuous A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  38. APPLICATIONS Emission ScenariosD2005 – MFR2020 [kt/yr] A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  39. APPLICATIONS Emission Scenarios A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  40. APPLICATIONS Emission Scenarios A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  41. APPLICATIONS Emission Scenarios A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  42. APPLICATIONS Emission Scenarios A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  43. APPLICATIONS Source Apportionment from EMEP A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  44. APPLICATIONS Source Apportionment from EMEP A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  45. APPLICATIONS Source Apportionment A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  46. APPLICATIONS Source Apportionment A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  47. APPLICATIONS Source Apportionment A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  48. APPLICATIONS Process Analysis A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  49. APPLICATIONS Process Analysis A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

  50. APPLICATIONS Process Analysisnet transport contribution Rest Rest Ammo EC OM Nitr Sulf SOA A. Kerschbaumer, 20.11.2009 Source Dispersion Modelling

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