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  1. Early Warning Systems The presentation will begin at approximately 2:00 p.m. ET Information on joining the teleconference can be found on the “Info” tab in the upper left of this screen. Be sure to use the “Attendee ID” number on the Info tab when dialing in to associate your name with your phone. In order to cut down on background noise, please mute your phone by dialing *6 upon entry into the meeting. During the question and answer portion of this presentation: • You can re-enter *6 to unmute your phone and ask a question; or • Type your question into the Q&A panel below the participant list and clicking “Send”. A copy of this presentation and a link to the recording will be shared with the IES Grantees and EIMAC listservs. SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  2. Early Warning Systems Panelists Jenny Curtin (Massachusetts) Bill Hurwitch (Maine) Tom Olson (South Carolina) Agenda Background and description of each state’s early warning system Brief description of indicators or risk factors Information from MA users and implications for a new design Questions from participants SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  3. Early Warning Systems Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System Development SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  4. Early Warning Systems -- MA Massachusetts’ Current Early Warning Indicator Index MA created an Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII), which has been in place since 2008 Each year all first-time grade 9 students are assigned to 1 of 5 risk levels (from very low risk to very high risk) The system has been refined each year – but has always been based on middle school data and looked at the likelihood of a student not graduating within 4 years SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  5. Early Warning Systems -- MA In the current system risk levels assigned are based on five data elements: • Spring 2011 grade 8 MCAS mathematics scores • Spring 2011 grade 8 English language arts (ELA) scores • 2010-11 grade 8 attendance rate • Number of 2009-10 and 2010-11 suspensions (in or out of school) • Age as of September 1, 2011 SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  6. Early Warning Systems -- MA In Process – Expanded EWIS The development of the new system will focus on PK-12 – and will look more broadly at the likelihood of a child/student “falling off track” American Institutes for Research is developing the new risk model based on national research and our local data and needs We are also garnering multiple stakeholder input: • Diverse EWIS Advisory Group at the state level • Focus groups and interviews with district and school leaders SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  7. Early Warning Systems -- MA New Risk Model Key Concepts Age Groups • Focus on the birth through 12th grade continuum • Groups are developmentally appropriate and relevant Indicators • Monitoring, end of year, and transition Outcome Variables • Relevant to age group • Actionable by adults responsible for age group Indicator Risk Thresholds (low, moderate, and high risk) SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  8. Early Warning Systems -- MA Age Groupings and Outcome Variables SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  9. Early Warning Systems -- MA Next Steps for Expanded EWIS This project also includes the development of a technical solution to provide EWIS data to educators Training will be provided to assist districts in the technical use of the data, as well as best practice for using the data to inform interventions • EWIS can be used as a trigger for further investigation on student needs (root cause analysis) – EWIS is not a diagnostic tool SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  10. Early Warning Systems -- MA Advice for Other States Rely on stakeholder (internal and external) input throughout the process There is a constantly changing “data landscape” • Be open to including data that is newly collected or expected to be collected in the near future • Consider creating a plan to revisit the risk model(s) regularly to refine and improve SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  11. Early Warning Systems -- MA MA EWIS information: MA Commissioner’s Updates related to the EWIS: SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  12. Early Warning Systems Maine Maine At-Risk Data Mart SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  13. Early Warning Systems -- ME SLDS data warehouse module that educators use to identify, address and manage a problem, opportunity or strategy. • Uses SLDS data to identify students at risk • Allow educators to create, assign and manage programs and interventions for at-risk students and track student progress • Provide reports and data for analysis of model results as well as analysis to improve the model and programming SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  14. Early Warning Systems -- ME At-Risk Drop-out Model • The initial model was designed as a high school dropout early warning and management system • Students are initially evaluated as they enter 9th grade using research-based indicators from SLDS data • Educators can assign learning strategies, programs and interventions and track progress during school year SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  15. Early Warning Systems -- ME SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  16. Early Warning Systems -- ME College Readiness Model • Requested by the Maine Community College System Presidents Council Identify high school students at risk of needing postsecondary remedial or developmental courses Deliver the courses during in high school Improve student performance on ACCUPLACER and other measures SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  17. Early Warning Systems -- ME College Readiness Model Goals Reduce need for remedial or developmental courses in college Reduce need for students to pay for a non-credit course Indicate to students not considering postsecondary education that they may be college ready Provide feedback on readiness and success for high schools SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  18. Early Warning Systems -- ME College Readiness Indicators* SAT Participation Rates SAT Scores/State Assessment Results High School GPA Completion of Algebra II Attendance Completion of FAFSA Completion of 4 Years of Mathematics Course Completion/Scores in Dual Enrollment/Early College, Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate * New England Secondary School Consortium (CT/ME/NH/RI/VT) SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  19. Early Warning Systems -- ME Considerations Validate early warning system measures and weights with qualified research Establish processes to measure student progress and the effectiveness of programs and interventions Provide the ability for educators to input school level data and programs Soft influences access and security SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  20. Early Warning Systems South Carolina Student Potential Performance Snapshot SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  21. Early Warning Systems -- SC • Socio-Economic Indicators • Overage • Homeless • Single Parent • Displaced Homemaker • English as a Second Language • Disability • Migrant • SEI (Socio-Economic Indicator Flag = Free/Reduced Lunch, Medicaid and TANF) • Justice System • Foster • Credits Earned Indicators: • 11. Total Credits Earned At-Risk • Assessment Indicators: • 12. Total PACT/Pass(Not Met 1 or 2) SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  22. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  23. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  24. Early Warning Systems -- SC SC Weighted At-Risk Index SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  25. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  26. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  27. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  28. Early Warning Systems -- SC SLDS Webinar 1-27-12

  29. Early Warning Systems Questions? Contact Info and Resources: Requests from State Support Team or SLDS Team: Rosemary Collins, (202) 502-7354 Robin Taylor, (302) 236-2651 Panelists: Jenny Curtin, Massachusetts Department of Education Bill Hurwitch, Maine Department of Education Tom Olson, South Carolina Department of Education SLDS Webinar 1-27-12