Climate Change – Effects Sea Level Rise Warming  Ice Melt  Sea Level Rise

1. Climate Change – Effects • Sea Level Rise • Warming  Ice Melt  Sea Level Rise • Increased conversion of ice to water • Thermal expansion • Since 1880, sea level rising ~15 cm century-1 • Accelerated since 1940s • Melting of all ice should lead to sea level rise of ~70 m • Lomborg – More affluent world should lead to more protection against effects of sea level rise

2. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/19.htm

4. Climate Change – Effects • Reduced Ice/Snow Cover • Temperate/Tropical glaciers • Polar ice caps

5. Holgate Glacier, AK Muir Glacier, AK 1909 vs. 2004 1941 vs. 2004

6. After Dyurgerov and Meier (2005)

7. SAHFOS

8. European Space Agency

9. Climate Change – Effects • Extreme Weather • More and more severe • Tropical storms • Tornadoes • Increasing economic losses • Lomborg – Changing population patterns, demography, economic prosperity

10. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html

12. www.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/US-tornadoes-1953to-present-bar.htmlwww.hprcc.unl.edu/nebraska/US-tornadoes-1953to-present-bar.html

13. Climate Change – Effects • Precipitation Patterns • Warming should lead to • Reduced precipitation at low latitudes • Increased precipitation at high latitudes • Examples • Drought in many parts of the world • Reduced snowpack in Sierra Nevada Mountains due to rainfall instead of snow • Increased agricultural production in some areas • Combined with higher temperatures and [CO2]

15. 20th Century Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program

16. Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program

17. Climate Change – Effects • Ozone Holes • Global warming of the atmosphere translates to stratospheric cooling • Stratospheric cooling may enhance ozone destruction in Antarctic and make phenomenon more common in Arctic (Waibel et al. 1999)

18. Climate Change – Effects • Ecosystem Effects • Expand ranges of warmth-tolerant species and contract ranges of warmth-intolerant species • Colder-living species might be displaced poleward as well as upward in elevation • Species unable to adapt or move would go extinct • Within an ecosystem, some species more sensitive to climate change than others • Species composition of communities almost certainly will change • Ex: Intertidal (Pacific Grove – Central CA) • Significant abundance changes in 32/45 species between 1931 and 1994 • 8/9 southern species increased significantly • 5/8 northern species decreased significantly • Changes in CO2 concentration  lower pH of ocean • Behavioral changes (Ex: Sockeye salmon)

20. Climate Change – Effects • Health • Consistently elevated temperatures can lead to immunosuppression • Exacerbated by elevated levels of UV-B • Allergies could worsen due to increased pollen production (heat), dust (drought), mold (humidity) • Additional human mortality from severe summer heat

21. U.S. Global Change Research Program

22. Climate Change – Effects • Tropical Pests and Diseases • Many tropical diseases transmitted by animal vectors – insects, rodents • Concern that global warming could increase geographic ranges of vectors • Dengue fever • Ex: 1995 – Rising temperatures allowed a coastal mosquito species to cross mountains and spread across Costa Rica, carrying dengue fever • Reached as far north as Texas border • 140,000+ people infected; 4000+ died

23. Climate Change – Effects • Tropical Pests and Diseases • Malaria • Most prevalent vector-borne disease (1-2 million cases/year) • Transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes • Warming could lead to • Broader geographic range (estimate that +2oC could expand range from 42 to 60% of land area) • Higher metabolic rate  More food • Faster maturation  More rapid reproduction • Faster parasite life cycle • Potential spread into large urban areas (Nairobi, Kenya; Harare, Zimbabwe) with immunologically naïve pop’ns • Projections are controversial and highly variable

24. Climate Change – Effects