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Comportamento Eleitoral

Comportamento Eleitoral. Aula 11 Ciencia Politica CGAE Kurt von Mettenheim. Topics. Behavioral Revolution in political science Frequencies & Typology of Mass Belief Systems Correlations & Issue Voting Regressions & Causal Modeling “The Brazilian Voter” + 15(!) years

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Comportamento Eleitoral

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  1. Comportamento Eleitoral Aula 11 Ciencia Politica CGAE Kurt von Mettenheim

  2. Topics • Behavioral Revolution in political science • Frequencies & Typology of Mass Belief Systems • Correlations & Issue Voting • Regressions & Causal Modeling • “The Brazilian Voter” + 15(!) years • Brazilian Democracy: Critical Elections, Party Realignments, Supercoalitions

  3. 1) Revolução Behavioralista Versus Freudian Psychology * “comportamento observado” * questionário Versus Sociologia Demográfico e dados agregados desde Durkheim: Census  Comparison Para Linz = “Falha Ecológica”  precisa focalizar o indivíduo

  4. History of Public Opinion Studies • 1930s-40s Laswell & Chicago School (problem = fascism/communism & propoganda) • 1950s Stauffer “Communism & Civil Rights” (problem = Senador McCarthy & CPI anti-communist) MARCO de Método e Teoria: P. Converse: “Mass Belief Systems”

  5. 2) “Mass Belief Systems”P. Converse, 1964 Tipologia de ConceitualizaçõesdaPolítica Tipo % 1958 % 1964 --------------------------------------------------------- Ideologue 5 8 Near-Ideologue 8 12 Group Interest 20 23 Nature of Times 40 40 No Content 27 27

  6. 3) Issue VotingRange & Constraint of Mass Belief System Range: NumberofBeliefs Y N NA Privatizar? Mais Policia? Reforma Politica? Aumentar Imposto? BACEN Autonomo?

  7. Constraint If YES Privatize, then NO Tax Increase = CORRELATION If YES BACEN Autonomo, then YES Privatize…

  8. 4) Regressions & Causal Modeling Theory: ECON  Vote Test Theory? Variável = PIB, IPCA?, Gini Coefficient?

  9. Parsimony vs Causal Weight a Party ID b f ECON g Candidate h Vote e c Ideology d

  10. Aumentar Explicação ... 1) Vote = e + econ 2) Vote = e + (g x h) + (a x b) + (c x d) + (c x e x h) + (a x f x h) 1) R2 = 2.0 2) R2 = 9.0

  11. Causal Models Long-Term Short-Term --------------------------------------- ---------------- Demography Political Political --------------------------------------- ---------------- Income  Econ Age  Party ID Region  Policies Vote Race  Pol. Soc. Gender  Candidate Education

  12. 5) The Brazilian Voter Eleições de 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986 Identificou a organização RÁPIDA da Opinião Pública Brasileira vs 1970 Brazil (Eleição em Regime Militar!) vs 1950s EUA (despolitizado: 1960s muda)

  13. Tipologia de Conceitualizações da Politica Tipo EUA BRAZIL ------------------------------------------------------------- Ideologue 8 2 Near-Ideologue 12 3 Group Interest 23 4 Nature of Times 40 45 No Content 27 45

  14. Tipo BRAZIL --------------------------------------------------------- Personalist 23 Immediate 32 Problem: “Master Coding” of Open Question Content? Via: Corr? Issue? Ed?

  15. The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 6 = Party Identification in 1982 Rsq = 0.85 – 0.95 !!!! 3 Teoriassobrecomo se forma “IDENTIFICAÇÃO PARTIDÁRIA” 1) Political Socialization  PID 2) Civil Society  PID 3) Elections  PID (Weber/Keys/Burnham: Plebiscitary Vote & Political Machines)

  16. The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 7 = Issue Voting (lembra 2o marcometodológico… correlações) Rsq = 0.24 SE = Local < & National > NE / Rural = Local > & National <

  17. The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 8 : Accountability * Old, Contested Concept in Political Theory (para cima, horizontal, ? ) * New Concept: Causal Logic of Public Opinion PIB/Employment  Vote pro-contra GOV Q: Individual (US) vs Society (FR/Brazil) Q: Executive? Leg? Fed/State/Mun?

  18. The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 9 Participation W. Gallie: “Essentially Contested Concepts” Outro marco metodológico: Análise Fatorial (1=mídia, 2=sociedade civil, 3= processo eleitoral em si) Como se cria, qual é o impacto de PARTICIPAÇÃO? Corporativismo: hierarquias Sociedade Civil: mobilização de baixo Política Partidária-Eleitoral: “Nível de Análise>”

  19. The Brazilian Voter cont. Value of Democracy * Psychology: “Cognitive Dissonance” Vote  Believe (Rustow, Luxemburg) * Tolerance: Petition/Strike/Occupy Building* Q Method: Factor Analysis: Actions/Beliefs

  20. 6) New Concepts for Brazilian Democracy 1) 1994 = Critical Election (Eleição Crítica) US = 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1964 2) Toucan & PT Supercoalitions (Presidencialismo de Coalizão) 3) Multi-Party Realignment (Realinhamento Partidário) National  Local Change Separation of powers Presidential & federal institutions

  21. Classics: Max Weber & V.O. Key US Political Development "That the plebiscitary 'machine' has developed so early in America is due to the fact that there, and there alone, the executive -- this is what mattered -- the chief office of patronage, was a president elected by plebiscite." (Weber, 1946, p. 108). Critical Elections and Realignment “in which voters are … unusually deeply concerned, in which the extent of electoral involvement is relatively quite high, and in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate. Moreover, and perhaps this is the truly differentiating characteristic of this election, the realignment made manifest in such elections seems to persist for several succeeding elections.” (Key, 1955, p. 4)

  22. Example: 1932 Key focuses on the persistence of votes shifting to democrats in New England in 1924 and 1928 thereafter, Followers focus on 1932 as the critical election: one with (just under) a 20 percent drop for republicans and (just under) a 20 percent increase for democrats:

  23. Critical Elections in US History 1) Jacksonian democrats (1828 election), 2) Republican ascendancy after civil war and the end of slavery (1860 election) 3) The rise of corporate capitalism and republican defeat of populism (1896 election), 4) The depression and New Deal (1932 election), 5) Decline of the democratic south as either a 1948+ secular realignment or a critical election in 1964 or 1994.

  24. 1994 = Critical ElectionPresidential Vote by Party, 1945-2006

  25. Critical Election  Realignment

  26. Presidential Critical Election  Congressional Realignment

  27. Prefeituras por partido, 1982-2004

  28. “Supercoalitions” Social Security Reform(6 August 2003)

  29. Supercoalition Votes:Tax Reform9 Sept 2003

  30. Total Vote by Party Mayoral Elections, 1996-2004 1996 2000 2004 1994-00 2000-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PT 7,893,509 11,938,734 16,314,314 51.2 36.6 PSDB 13,065,103 13,518,346 15,726,415 3.4 16.3 PMDB 12,716,976 13,257,675 14,231,192 4.2 5.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PFL 10,072,522 12,973,437 11,253,898 28.8 -13.2 PDT 6,956,642 5,611,888 5,576,508 -19.3 -0.6 PP 9,776,752 6,812,742 6,092,683 -30.3 -10.5 PTB 4,354,264 5,804,047 5,257,528 33.3 -9.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PL 1,971,267 2,541,572 5,040,885 28.9 98.3 PPS 496,150 3,509,922 4,984,431 607.4 40.9 PSB 2,816,484 3,861,987 4,465,048 37.1 15.6 PCdoB 191,175 382,827 887,478 100.2 131.8 Other 3,801,025 4,307,056 5,317,244 13.3 23.4 Total 74,111,896 84,520,333 95,111,624 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Source: Superior Electoral Court, available at www.tse.gov.br

  31. Number of MayorsBy Party, 1988-2004

  32. Mayorships, 1996-2004

  33. From 2004 to 2006 PT Supercoalition, Lula 2nd Term 2006-2010 PSDB Opposition SP Gov Alckimin, MG Gov Neves? PMDB: Machine Bases PFL: Regional & Machine Bases Minor Parties: PL, PDT, PP, PTB, PPS, PSB

  34. 7) Political Scenarios for 2006 Elections and 2007-2010 Coalition Government in Brazil Material prepared for consultancy Kurt von Mettenheim GLG & FGV-EAESP 21 June 2006

  35. Political Scenarios Scenarios turn on October 2006 Elections: Most likely scenario = President Lula reelected and PT Coalition Government formed 2007-2010. Next most likely scenario = PSDB candidate Alkimin elected and PSDB-PFL coalition government formed.

  36. Voter Preference, 2005-2006

  37. Voter Preference, by Gender, Education, Income

  38. Voter Preference, 2nd Round(if no candidate> 50% valid votes, held four weeks after 1st Round)

  39. Rejection Levels of Major Candidates

  40. Corruption in Lula´s Government?

  41. Voter Perceptions of Congress

  42. Explore Electoral Behavior www.marketingpolitico.com.br www.apsanet.org Browse “PROceedings” electoral behavior sections

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