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The Future (of IT). Steve Prentice GVP & Chief of Research Hardware & Systems. Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — quote.requests@gartner.com.

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the future of it

The Future (of IT)

Steve Prentice

GVP & Chief of Research

Hardware & Systems

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.

These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — quote.requests@gartner.com.

the paperless office
The Paperless Office …….?

Not yet!

But introducing ….

semiconductor technology creating the perfect digital storm
Semiconductor Technology — Creating the 'Perfect (Digital) Storm'

2006> 10 billion processorsshipped p.a.

2009Disk shipments exceed 200 ExaBytes per annum

2012Installed base of processors > 200 billion

??'s Law (More Storage Capacity)

Moore's Law (More Computing Power)

Increasing Integration Chips become more complex and more general purpose ("system on a chip")

Gilder's Law

(More Bandwidth)

Metcalfe's Law(More Valuable Networks)

Note: 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabytes

slide5

Technology:

Defining what is AVAILABLE —

Increasing price performance

Commoditisation/Consumerisation

Societal:

Describing what we DESIRE —

IT-enabled lifestyle, growing automation,

Knowledge work,rise of individualism

The

Problem

with

Infrastructure

Organisation:

Dictating what is REQUIRED — Flexibility and agility become paramount

  • "organisation" to "organism"
  • "local suppliers" to "globally sourced"
  • "command and control" to "sense and respond"
  • "internal control" to "transparency and regulation"
technology trend 2 virtualisation of infrastructure

IT virtualizationis the pooling of IT resources in a way that masks the physical nature and boundaries of those resources from resource users.

Technology Trend #2:Virtualisation of Infrastructure

Scale Up

Scale Out

technology trend 3 from products to services

IT’S All OVER !

Demand

Increasing

Abstraction via

Virtualisation and

Wrapping virtual

Systems with

System governors

And increased

Automation

- Policy-based

- Service Oriented

- Active Management

Service Governor

Financial Abstraction

Optimization

App.

App.

App.

App.

Policies

  • IT service definitions
  • Service agreements
  • Business priorities

Services

  • That meet business requirements

Ownership was the only option

Virtualization

Meta OS

Network

Real-Time Infrastructure

Provisioning

Workloads/Data

OS

OS

I/O

I/O

HW

I/O

HW

I/O

Automation

Resources

Availability

Identities/Security

Resources

Technology Trend #3:From Products to Services
technology trend 4 it s software jim but not as we know it

Service Portfolio

Management

Integration Platform

Web Services

Other Services

Invoice

Billing

Price

NewServices

Packaged Services,

Wrapped Legacy

Orchestration Services

Business Process Portfolio

SOBA – Service-Oriented (and Event-Driven) Business Applications

BPM

BAM

ProcessMaps

Process View

SES

APS

CEP

SODA – Service-Oriented Development of Applications

?

App. View

ISE

BPA

WS*

WSM

Construction View

Technology Trend #4:It’s Software Jim, but not as we know it!

The Coming Ecosystem Wars!

The emergence of an

Adaptive Business Process

Platform

technology trend 5 welcome to the wireless world

I’m Here!

Technology Trend #5:Welcome to the Wireless World!
  • Enabling wireless technologies
    • Zigbee, Bluetooth for nodes now, UWB and NFC later (with autolocation)
    • 802.11 for “edges”
    • WiMAX backbone
  • Shrinking “Smart” Objects
    • Cheap, small devices
    • Everything gets a radio
    • Self-assembling mesh networks
    • Location aware (lat., long., alt., time)
    • Plum size >>>>> Smart Pills
  • Delivering an “Always On” Society
technology trend 6 7 8 9 the next big thing
Quantum Science

Nanotechnology

Peer-to-Peer communications

……?

Rat Brain Flys Jet!

Crossbar Latch set to replace

Transistor

Sony takes 3-D cinemadirectly to the brain

Technology Trend #6,7,8,9,…..The Next Big Thing?

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from Magic!

Arthur C. Clarke (1962)

the hype cycle of emerging technologies

Visibility

Peak of Inflated

Trough of

Slope of

Plateau of

Technology

Expectations

Disillusionment

Enlightenment

Productivity

Trigger

Maturity

The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies

Key: Time to Plateau

802.16d WiMAX

Unified Communications

Less than two years

Semantic Web

UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia

Linux on Desktop for

Two to five years

Mainstream Business

Users

Five to 10 years

External MPP Grids

More than 10 years

Inkjet Processes

LEPs/OLEDs

Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices

Service-Oriented Architecture

Micro Fuel Cells

Electronic Ink/Digital Paper

Really Simple Syndication

Social Network Analysis

Speech

Web-Services-Enabled Business Models

Recognition for

Wikis

Telephony and

Information Extraction

Internal

Mesh Networks — Sensor

Call Center

MPP

Mesh Networks — Wide Area

Grids

Augmented Reality

Trusted Computing Group

Instant Messaging

RFID (Case/Pallet)

RFID (Item)

VoIP

Internal Web Services

Tablet PC

Smartphone

Location

Truth Verification

"Aware"

Services

Wi-Fi

Molecular

Hot

Transistors

Computer-Brain Interface/

Spots

Thought Recognition

Protein-DNA Logic

As of July 2004

slide12

Technology:

  • Defining what is AVAILABLE —
  • Commoditisation/Consumerisation
  • Virtualisation
  • Pervasive Connectivity
  • APPLIANCES
  • Societal:
  • Describing what we DESIRE
  • Individualism/Collaboration
  • “Do it Myself” - Personal
  • Work/leisure
  • CONTROL

Organisation:

Dictating what is REQUIRED

  • "command and control" to "sense and respond"
  • Process, Standardisation, Repeatabilty
  • Externalisation & Services
  • AGILITY

The WayThings Work!

the future of it13

The Future (of IT)

Steve Prentice

GVP & Chief of Research

Hardware & Systems

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.

These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — quote.requests@gartner.com.