Dave Bouwer and Kent Tobiska, Federal Data Corporation

1. Applications of SOLAR2000 The FDC & SEC CRADA SOLAR2000 Characteristics and Heritage • Reduced uncertainties in solar irradiances for GPS, spacecraft, and RF applications including: • Post-analysis • anomaly resolution • trend analysis • Real-time operations • RF max usable frequencies, propagation paths; GPS scintillation perturbations • vehicle reentry, next-orbit maneuvers, docking events • Scheduling and mission planning • operational staffing and schedules • extra-project resource negotiation and scheduling • satellite communication link estimation; lifetime estimation • mission requirement specifications • planetary gravity assists, maneuvering, and aerobraking • Federal Data Corporation's Space Weather Division (FDC/SpaceWx) and SEC officially signed a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement April 21, 2000. • SEC fosters a space weather industry by providing data and access to SEC research and forecast operations. • FDC develops products and services available to SEC research and operations • The world's first self-consistent empirical full-solar spectrum. • Spectrally resolved from the X-rays to the IR at 1 nm resolution and temporally from minutes to solar cycles • ISO draft solar standard compliant • Heritage from SERF2 (1989), EUV91 (1991), EUV97 (1998) solar models and UARS, ASTM • The commercial version of S2K is modular (Java packages, web-served GUI operations), is coupled with other models to produce improved ionospheric and thermospheric densities, and is displayed using 3-D visualization (MUSE) systems. SOLAR2000 Objectives • , and 3-D visualization (MUSE) • Provide the world’s premier empirical solar irradiance specification • Provide daily historical, nowcast, and forecast irradiances • Link with other space physics models for a space weather nowcasting and forecasting capability SOLAR2000 Algorithm SOLAR2000's E10.7 EUV Proxy SOLAR2000 Overview • SOLAR2000 models solar irradiance variations input into the Earth's thermosphere and upper atmosphere. • The traditional substitute proxy for solar variability, F10.7, has no physical effect on the Earth's atmosphere; EUV/UV does. • The SOLAR UV/EUV irradiance varies by a factor of about 10 over a solar rotation and over the 11-year solar cycle. • Autonomous SOLAR2000 Inputs: • F10.7, NOAA MgII Index, GOES EUV, SOHO EIT and SEM, TIMED • Daily SOLAR2000 Outputs: • A real-time model of the disk-integrated solar spectrum from 1-10,000 nm • A real-time model of disk-integrated solar irradiance • E10.7 (a proxy for solar EUV in units of F10.7) • E10.7 and F10.7 daily values are compared via the LOP orbit propagator, using a J71 model atmosphere. E10.7 unambiguously replicates the solar component of atmospheric heating and is contrasted with F10.7. Non-solar effects are not included in this modeled comparison with the actual SME altitudes • E10.7 advantages over F10.7: • Up to 17% differences in daily variations. • E10.7 is available immediately; F10.7 is an adjusted value available in days to months. • We have a forecasting architecture for 5 distinct time regimes ranging from days to years; F10.7 is only forecast on climatological timescales. • Nowcast: E10.7 will utilize high time resolution data for realtime operations; F10.7 will always be daily averages. • Forecast: E10.7 will improve its forecast accuracy based on new data; F10.7 will remain the same. • Physics: E10.7 is THE solar energy deposition in the upper atmosphere; F10.7 has no physical connection to the atmosphere. • Solar spectrum: E10.7 is a subset of a broader, self-consistent solar spectrum from 1-10,000 nm (self-consistency important for high precision, coupled satellite drag and solar radiation pressure modeling); F10.7 is the single emission from one solar atmosphere layer. SEC Concept of Operations • Model runs in automatic mode • Screen displays input data and model output. • May be reviewed, validated, and issued by forecasters via a GUI screen • Forecasters may enter revised input parameters and reissue current or past model runs. • Forecasters shall be capable of issuing qualifiers (estimated, bad, flare enhanced, etc.) to model runs. • Input data and model output tested internally. • Out of bounds conditions included on SWO GUI and emailed to project personnel. • Status monitor indicates when: • No input data • Model run failure • OUS delivery failure • Out of bounds conditions • Emails on these conditions shall be sent to project personnel. • Low maintenance: Robust, extensible, documented. • Public OUS pages allow viewing model output • Current and past data in graphical and tabular forms. • Internally documenting the addresses of the accessing parties. SOLAR2000 Spectral Components Why Use SOLAR2000? Photospheric, Coronal, and Chromospheric emission lines reflect different components of solar irradiance, and SOLA2000 accounts for this. • SOLAR2000 is the first model for specifying solar irradiances and associated space weather effects from the Sun to the Earth • The new formulation of an SOLAR2000 EUV proxy, E10.7 • E10.7 is in same units as F10.7 • E10.7 replaces F10.7 in IRI, MSIS, MET, J71 • E10.7 is the total solar EUV energy input • Verified as representative of each wavelength weighted by its unit optical depth, species’ absorption cross section, and heating efficiency for thermospheric energy deposition (i.e., the volume mass heating rate above 120 km) • Results in significant improvements in other coupled models for thermospheric and ionospheric applications that effect communications and satellites. SOLAR2000: The FDC/SpaceWx and NOAA/SEC CRADA Dave Bouwer and Kent Tobiska, Federal Data Corporation