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Enhancing Forecast Error Covariances: Insights from Wavelets and Potential Vorticity Projects

This document outlines the goals and progress of two key projects: the "Wavelets" project, motivated by Andrews and Lorenc, and the "Potential Vorticity" project, in collaboration with Mike Cullen. These projects aim to address the multivariate and spatial aspects of forecast/error covariance matrices. The discussions from the DARC PI Meeting on October 17, 2005, highlighted significant gaps in existing methodologies that overlook the multifaceted nature of forecast errors. Both projects seek to improve the accuracy of forecasts by refining error covariance calculations.

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Enhancing Forecast Error Covariances: Insights from Wavelets and Potential Vorticity Projects

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  1. Science Update The “wavelets” project (motivation Andrews/Lorenc) The “potential vorticity” project (collaborator Mike Cullen) Ross Bannister, DARC PI Meeting, Oct. 17th 2005 The ‘parameter’ transform. Deals with multivariate aspects of f/c error covariances. The spatial transform (‘vertical’ and ‘horizontal’) deals with the spatial aspects of f/c error covariances. Implied b/g error covariance matrix Scope for improvement Existing schemes do not consider multi-faceted aspects of f/c errors

  2. The “potential vorticity” project

  3. The “potential vorticity” project

  4. The “wavelets” project

  5. Forecast error covs for T (control)

  6. Forecast error covs for T (MetO)

  7. Forecast error covs for T (WS)

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