To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
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The Land of Uncommon Sense. To: GFOAZ By: Jim Rounds, Senior Vice President Elliott D. Pollack & Company January 10 th , 2013. Context. The economy we wanted…. What we got…. US New Job Data Change from Prior Month (S/A) June 2010 – December 2012 Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics.

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To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

The Land of Uncommon Sense

To:

GFOAZ

By:

Jim Rounds, Senior Vice President

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

January 10th, 2013





To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
US New Job Data Change from Prior Month (S/A)June 2010 – December 2012Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics

(000’s)


U s unemployment rate 1976 2012 source bureau of labor statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recession Periods

*Data through November 2012


U s underemployment rate 1994 2012 source bureau of labor statistics
U.S. Underemployment Rate1994 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recession Periods

Beaten down by life.

Unemployment Rate

*Data through August 2012


Financial obligation ratio 1980 2012 source federal reserve
Financial Obligation Ratio**1980 – 2012* Source: Federal Reserve

Recession Periods

Paying less for past purchases!

*Data through second quarter 2012

**Ratio of mortgage and consumer debt (including auto, rent and tax payments) to disposable income.


Consumer confidence 1978 2012 source the dismal scientist
Consumer Confidence1978 – 2012* Source: The Dismal Scientist

Recession Periods

Normal

Normal

Normal

New Normal?

Approval of medical marijuana...

*Data through December 2012


Real retail sales u s percent change year ago 1973 2012 source federal reserve
Real Retail Sales U.S. Percent Change Year Ago1973 – 2012* Source: Federal Reserve

Recession Periods

*Data through November 2012

**Three-month moving average


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Real Disposable Personal IncomePercent Change Year Ago1971 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Recession Periods

* Data through second quarter 2012


Hours worked percent change from year ago 1976 2012 source bureau of labor statistics
Hours WorkedPercent Change from Year Ago1976 – 2012* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recession Periods

*Data through third quarter 2012


Capacity utilization rate 1970 2012 source the federal reserve bank of st louis
Capacity Utilization Rate1970 – 2012* Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Recession Periods

*Data through November 2012


U s leading indicators 1971 2012 source the conference board

Recession Periods

U.S. Leading Indicators1971 – 2012* Source: The Conference Board

*Data through November 2012



Recession no slow growth yes kicking the can yes
Recession? No. Slow growth?Yes.Kicking the can…Yes.



To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Alaska

Hawaii

Jobs growing

Top 10

Jobs declining

Job Growth 2006

Source: US BLS

10

7

9

5

1

4

3

15

22

8

2

11

6

13


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Hawaii

Jobs growing

Top 10

Jobs declining

Job Growth 2009

Alaska 2

Source: US BLS

34

20

1

46

44

7

3

24

5

10

50

9

36

6

30

45

49

25

8

4


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Hawaii

Jobs growing

Top 10

Jobs declining

Job Growth 2012

YTD November 2012 vs YTD November 2011

Source: US BLS

Alaska

43

11

26

1

33

12

31

50

34

7

4

10

9

14

5

2

6

47

3

8


Srp residential utility hookup percentage growth greater phoenix 2003 2012 source srp
SRP Residential Utility Hookup Percentage Growth Greater Phoenix 2003 – 2012* Source: SRP

POP

*Data through July 2012.


Aps slowest growth in over 50 years 1954 2012
APS: Slowest Growth in over 50 years1954 – 2012*

POP

*Data through third quarter 2012

Source: APS


Arizona retail sales percent change year ago 1999 2012 source arizona department of revenue
Arizona Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago*1999 – 2012**Source: Arizona Department of Revenue

Recession Periods

9.2% October?

*Data through October 2012

**3-month moving average


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?

Projected Net Job Growth:

2013 = 73,600

2014 = 88,500

= 162,100


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

FISCAL CLIFF IN ARIZONA?

If the mandated spending cuts take place, total loss to Arizona is projected at: 45,000 to 50,000 jobs.

(This does not take into account any slowdown caused by tax increases SO DOUBLE THIS NUMBER????)

We will still grow, but very slowly.

Remember, the “worst case” is not the most likely scenario.


Addl detail greater phoenix
Addl. Detail:Greater Phoenix


Arizona employment source bureau of labor statistics
Arizona Employment*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

*November 2012/ November 2011


Employment levels greater phoenix back to peak in 2015 source adoa
Employment Levels: Greater Phoenix back to Peak in 2015?Source: ADOA

Recession Periods

Peak


Maricopa county retail sales percent change year ago 1999 2012 source arizona department of revenue
Maricopa County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago*1999 – 2012**Source: Arizona Department of Revenue

Recession Periods

*Data through October 2012

**3-month moving average


U s single family starts 1978 2012 1 source census bureau
U.S. Single-Family Starts1978–20121/Source: Census Bureau

Recession Periods

(Millions)

Over-

supply

LTA: 1.2

Under-

supply

1/ Through November 2012


Single family permits greater phoenix 1975 2016 source rl brown elliott d pollack company
Single Family Permits Greater Phoenix 1975–2016*Source: RL Brown & Elliott D. Pollack & company

# Permits

(000)

But population growth also slid…

*2012 – 2016 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Company


Greater phoenix percentage of homes purchased with cash 2003 2012 source cromford report
Greater Phoenix Percentage of Homes Purchased with$$$ Cash $$$2003 – 2012*Source: Cromford Report

*Data through November 2012


Greater phoenix permits source r l brown

Greater Phoenix PermitsSource: R.L. Brown

*Data through YTD November 2012 vs. YTD November 2011


Home prices indices greater phoenix 1989 2012 source macro markets llc amls
Home Prices IndicesGreater Phoenix1989 – 2012* Source: Macro Markets, LLC; AMLS

Recession Periods

?

*Data through October 2012.


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Total Single Family Units Occupied by Renters2000-2011 Greater PhoenixSource: American Community Survey

?




To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Greater Tucson MSA Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012**Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration

Recession Periods

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

**Data through November 2012


Greater tucson employment source arizona department of commerce research administration
Greater Tucson Employment*Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration

?

*Nov 2012/Nov 2011


Pima county retail sales percent change year ago 2000 2012 source arizona department of revenue
Pima County Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue

Recession Periods

*Data through September 2012


Greater tucson single family permits 2000 2012 source southern arizona housing market letter
Greater Tucson Single Family Permits2000–2012*Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter

Recession Periods

*Data through September 2012


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Single Family Resale Median PriceGreater Tucson2000 – 2012* Source: Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter

Recession Periods

*Data through November 2012



To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Balance of State Employment* Annual Percent Change 1975–2012**Source: Department of Commerce, Research Administration

Recession Periods

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

**Data through September 2012


Balance of state employment source arizona department of commerce research administration
Balance of State Employment*Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration

*November 2012/November 2011


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013
Balance of State Retail Sales Percent Change Year Ago2000 – 2012* Source: Arizona Department of Revenue

Recession Periods

*Data through September 2012


Balance of state single family permits 1976 2013 source university of arizona
Balance of State Single Family Permits1976–2013*Source: University of Arizona

Recession Periods

*2012 & 2013 are forecasts from the University of Arizona




To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Many renting will buy.Many doubled-up will buy. Some population growth is back. Employment growth is occurring. Retirees less bound to crappy states. Investors will not suddenly dump and run. Still producing less than “normal.” Fundamentals remain in place. “Normal” returns in 2015-ish. Growth rates will be strong now though.



To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

How Arizona Ranks Among the States in Percentage GrowthSource: U.S. Bureau of Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis

PERSONAL

DECADEPOPULATIONEMPLOYMENTINCOME

1950 - 1960 4TH 3RD 2ND

1960 - 1970 3RD 3RD 4TH

1970 - 1980 2ND 3RD 4TH

1980 - 1990 3RD 3RD 5TH

1990 - 2000 2ND 2ND 3RD

2000 – 2010 2ND 12th 8TH


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Recession Periods

Arizona Outperforms the U.S.*(Non-farm Emp. Percent Change 1980 – August 2012)

*As long as population flows continue!


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Greater Phoenix Population Annual Percent Change 1976–2013*Source: Arizona State University & Department of Commerce, Research Administration

Recession Periods

The Exception…

.

* 2012 & 2013 forecast is from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.


Growth factors still intact

Growth Factors Still Intact?

  • Climate

  • Lifestyle

  • Geographic Location

  • Pro-Growth Attitude

  • Competitive Tax Structure

  • Focused Incentives/Investment (i.e. transportation)

  • Leadership with Common Sense

  • Low Cost of Living

  • Congressional Delegation Working for State

  • Business & Government in Same Direction

  • ETC, ETC, ETC.


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Competitiveness Map – 2012(2013?)

Source : CBRE

Source: CBRE


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

Benefits of the “SUNBELT”

Industrial Northwest

9

10

5

Hawaii

Alaska


Where do they come from
Where do they come from?

California – Complete disaster.

Northeast – Too damn cold.

Rust Belt – No jobs.

Florida – Need help finding their luggage though.

Others…


Top 10 states percent of homes with mortgages with negative equity source core logic
Top 10 StatesPercent of Homes with Mortgages with Negative EquitySource: Core Logic

U.S.= 22.3%


Closing points

AZ will still be a top 5 economy.

The economy has multiple gears.

2015/2016 is FULL recovery for AZ.

The long term potential remains intact!

Closing Points:


What do you think still needs to be done
What do you think still needsto be done?

Tourism coordination and enhancement?

Addl. economic development tools?

Others?

Your thoughts?


To gfoaz by jim rounds senior vice president elliott d pollack company january 10 th 2013

ELLIOTT D. POLLACK

& Company

  • Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis/Modeling

  • Real Estate Market and Feasibility Studies

  • Litigation Support

  • Revenue Forecasting

  • Keynote Speaking

  • Public Finance and Policy Development

  • Land Use Economics

  • Economic Development

7505 East Sixth Avenue, Suite 100 Scottsdale, Arizona 85251

480-423-9200 P / 480-423-5942 F / www.arizonaeconomy.com / info@edpco.com