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National Centers for Environmental Prediction Development/Status Update. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. July 11, 2011. Goals for Today’s Meeting.

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national centers for environmental prediction development status update

National Centers for Environmental PredictionDevelopment/Status Update

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

July 11, 2011

goals for today s meeting
Goals for Today’s Meeting
  • Provide overview of NCEP
  • Review current ongoing NOS/NCEP interactions since last NOS visit (July 2010)
  • Start the process – future strategic goals and related steps in attaining those goals
outline
Outline
  • NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services
  • NOAA’s Model Production Suite
  • Computer Capability
  • Update Status from Last Meeting (July, 2010)
  • Enabling “Operational” Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities
  • Summary
ncep s role in noaa s seamless suite of products and forecast services
NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

Observe

To Serve Diverse

Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…)

- Process

- Assimilate

- Predict

Products & Forecast Services

Central

Guidance

Local

Offices

Respond & Feedback

NCEP

Distribute

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Feedback

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

ncep supports the noaa seamless suite of climate weather and ocean products
NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Aviation Weather Center

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

test beds service science linkage with the outside community
EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

CPC Climate Test Bed

NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with

AFWA

AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed

OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch; working with IOOS/SURA on possible test bed

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

6

what does ncep do
Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

Climate Seasonal Forecasts

El Nino – La Nina Forecast

Weather Forecasts to Day 7

Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

Aviation Forecasts and Warnings

High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

What Does NCEP Do?

“From the Sun to the Sea”

  • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather
  • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts
  • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
  • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

7

noaa s model production suite nws seamless suite of forecasts
NOAA’s Model Production SuiteNWS Seamless Suite of Forecasts

Outlook

Guidance

Threats Assessments

Forecast Lead Time

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Forecast

Uncertainty

Years

Seasons

Months

Climate Forecast System

2 Week

North American Ensemble

Forecast System

Climate/Weather

Linkage

1 Week

Ocean Model

Great Lakes/ Coastal/Bay Models

Hurricane Models

Global Forecast System

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Days

North American Forecast

Hours

Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

  • GFDL
  • WRF

Dispersion Models for DHS

Minutes

Health

Maritime

Aviation

Agriculture

Recreation

Commerce

Ecosystem

Hydropower

Environment

Fire Weather

Life & Property

Emergency Mgmt

Energy Planning

Space Operations

Reservoir Control

noaa s nws model production suite
NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch

III

Forecast

Climate

NOS

PORTS

GLOFS

Chesapeake

Tampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

CFS

MOM4

NOAH

Sea Ice

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF

Coupled

Coupled

(Future)

3.5B Obs/Day

Satellites + Radar

99.9%

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

Regional

DA

Global

Forecast

System

Global Data

Assimilation

Severe Weather

WRF NMM/ARW

Workstation WRF

Short-Range

Ensemble Forecast

Space

Weather

(Future)

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Regional DA

WRF: ARW, NMM

ETA, RSM

Air Quality

GFS, Canadian Global Model

ENLIL

NAM/CMAQ

Rapid Update

for Aviation

9

9

NOAH Land Surface Model

activities timeline for nos interaction
Activities Timeline for NOS Interaction
  • Computer “backbone” agreement - 2005
  • NOS/NCEP MOU – September 2008
  • Modeling CONOPS completed – May 2010
  • NOS/NCEP Leadership meeting – July 2010
  • Great Lakes Operational Forecast System Implementation – December 7, 2010
  • SURA meeting at NCEP – March 2, 2011
  • Implementation of Chesapeake Bay, Tampa Bay and Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System – March 29, 2011
  • IOOS/OPC working toward support for Ocean/Coastal test bed (ongoing)
current status
Current Status
  • NCO now supports NOS models in operational mode
    • Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay
  • Other models now being assessed by NOS for implementation (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Columbia River,…)
  • Global HYCOM running in parallel; to be implemented by September 30, 2011
  • 4 km NMMB to be implemented August 9
    • 4km winds for bay models
  • Actively enabling (providing O2R support for) ecosystem forecasts (report out on July 5-6 workshop)
  • NWS/NCEP working with IOOS to support SURA/Test bed
computing capability applied to nws and now nos model services
Transition to IBM Power 6 complete

Declared operational August 12, 2009

73.1 trillion calculations/sec

Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5

156 POWER6 32-way nodes

4,992 processors

20 terabytes of memory

330 terabytes of disk space

3.5 billion observations/day

27.8 Million model fields/day

Primary: Gaithersburg, MD

Backup: Fairmont, WV

Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Approaching capacity limits for existing operational computing (new system, scheduled Sept 2013)

Number of Hits (Millions)

Number of Hits (Millions)

Computing CapabilityApplied to NWS and Now NOS Model Services

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2009

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2009

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

enabling operational ecosystem prediction capabilities

“Enabling” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities

  • A major goal in NWS Strategic Plan
  • Look to partner with NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA components with NOS providing lead
  • Many opportunities to accelerate various regional-local based Ecological Forecasting Systems

14

summary
Summary

NCEP is

Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”

Working with NOAA on opportunities to “enable” and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach

NCEP-NOS ocean-coastal operational working relationship

NCEP-NOS CO-OPS CONOPS agreement

Increasing interactions with SURA through IOOS

A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – working with IOOS on establishing test bed within OPC

Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications

today s meeting agenda
Today’s Meeting Agenda

10:30 a.m. Opening Statements – Objectives for Today

Laura Furgione, NWS DAA, D

Dr.Holly Bamford, NOS DAA

10:50 a.m. Developments/Status Update Since Last Visit to NCEP

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, NCEP Director

11:10 a.m. Collaborative Modeling Efforts: Progress and Lessons

Dr. HendrikTolman, Chief, Ocean Modeling Branch

Mary Erickson, Chief, Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL)

11:35 a.m. Coastal Ecological Forecasting; Vision and Prospects for Operational Services

Dr. Russell Callender, Acting Director, NCCOS/NOS

Ecological Forecasting:Report on July 5-6 Workshop

Dr. David Green, OCWWS/NWS

12:00 p.m. Vision andProspect for an Ocean/Coastal Modling Test bed

Zdenka Willis, Director, IOOS Program

Dr. Ming Ji, Director, Ocean Prediction Center

12:30 p.m. Discussion/Working Lunch

- Review current projects underway

- Identify gaps or projected delays

- Future planned project

- Areas for future growth

- Building logical partnerships (NMFS, USACE, DOE…)

1:15 p.m. Executive Session

Execs Adjourn to NCEP Director’s Office

1:15 p.m. Technical Breakout Discussions

2:30 p.m. Regroup/Report Out/Wrap Up

3:00 p.m. Adjourn

slide20

Record

Values

slide22

NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Major Upgrades in Global and

Hurricane Numerical models

Advances Related

To USWRP

2003-2009

trend line

forces for change
Forces for Change
  • Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite
    • SREF
    • NAEFS
    • Climate Forecast System
  • Entering the NPOESS era
    • More rapid access to hyperspectral data
    • GPS soundings
    • Higher resolution surface radiance data
  • All models run within ESMF
    • Models run concurrently
    • Fully coupled
    • Spanning all scales
  • Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications

ESMF-based System

Global/Regional Model Domain

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

integrated user requirements
Integrated User Requirements

Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit

  • Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions
    • QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply
    • Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety
    • Air/Water temperature ... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness
    • Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support
prototype projects
Prototype Projects

Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs

Chesapeake Bay

Beach/Water Quality

Living Resource Distribution

Dissolved Oxygen Predictions

Harmful Algal Bloom

Disease Pathogen Progression

Gulf Coast

Gulf of Maine

Great Lakes

California Current

Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...

Vibrio...

Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic

Barnacles, Muscles

Algal Blooms and Dead Zones