The Future of Information Services and their management

1. The Future of Information Services and their management Presentation at the KhTURE 12.9.2000 Kalle Lyytinen University of Jyväskylä

2. Future of Information Services • Fast change in all computing technologies • Networks and distributed computing architectures ubiquitous (internet) • Migration of applications, telecommunications and media • Creates new information services and service channels Kalle Lyytinen

3. Global Information Infrastructure Anytime, Anyplace Global connectivity via an open network On-demand delivery, whenever, wherever Digital Convergence Mass Customization Transformation of physical media into digital format Tailoring of product/service to unique needs of the customer Moore’s Law Computer Literacy Doubling of digital engine capacity every 18 months High penetration of computers and knowledge to use them Open Standards Information Industries For transmission, presentation, interaction, security Value increasingly derived from information content The New Digital Environment Technology Market Kalle Lyytinen

4. Global Information Infrastructure And … Digital Convergence The conversion, processing, movement of all media in binary Documents Film 10011100101 10011100101 10011100101 Video 10011100101 10011100101 Voice 10011100101 10011100101 10011100101 Pictures Books Commercial transactions Kalle Lyytinen

5. Digital Media Equipment expansion New Communication Services / Jorma Havia 27.08.1999

6. The Change in Telecommunication Landscape • From fixed to wireless • From narrow band to broadband • From circuit switched to packet switched Kalle Lyytinen

7. From Fixed to Wireless Kalle Lyytinen

8. Forecast for Mobile Communications in Finland by Finnish Post & Telecom in 1983 Note: Actual number of connections in 1998 was 20 times as many as forecast Subscribers 150.000 Total 100.000 NMT 50.000 GSM ARP 0 1971 -75 -80 -85 -90 -95 2000 Kalle Lyytinen

9. Case: Finnish experiences - Highest Mobile Communications Penetration in the World February 1999 % of population Kalle Lyytinen

10. Related to segment S1 Mobile connections as substitute for wireline - Annual net increase of mobile vs. wireline Annual net increase of connections ’000s 250 Mobile 200 150 Mobile penetration 6.0 % Wireline 100 50 0 x 1980 1985 -90 -91 -92 -93 -94 -95 Kalle Lyytinen

11. Mobile calls as a substitute for wireline calls Calls by origination Calls are Percentage of calls by termination Growth rate terminating to Year 1994 Year 1998 Next 2 years - mobile conns 30 % 50 % Strong - wireline conns 70 % 50 % Slight Mobile originating calls - Internet 15 % 27 % Strong - mobile conns 7 % 20 % Slight - wireline conns 78 % 53 % Zero / declining Wireline originating calls Kalle Lyytinen

12. Mobile penetration rate 1989 -2002 - Realised and forecast development 120 Number of subscriptions 100 80 Number of users 58 % 60 40 Mobile connections equal wireline conns at mobile penetration rate of 58 % 20 0 2002 (est.) 1989 Nov 1998 Kalle Lyytinen

13. The new wireless technology enablers • WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) • UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunication System) and Media Phones Kalle Lyytinen

14. What Is WAP ? The WAP (wireless application protocol) is a specification for a set of communication protocols to standardize the way that wireless devices, such as cellular telephones and radioTransceivers, can be used for internet access, including e-mail, the world wide web, Newsgroups, and internet relay chat (IRC). Kalle Lyytinen

15. What is WAP (2) WAP specifies means for offering mobile internet services: • Vendor independence (open standard) • For mobile terminals • Assumes slower and lower reliability in connections Kalle Lyytinen

16. What is WAP ? (3) • Compatibility is ensured: • all digital mobile networks including: • GSM-900, GSM-1800, GSM-1900 ,CDMA IS-95 TDMA IS-136 • 3G systems - IMT-2000, UMTS, W-CDMA, Wideband IS-95GSM, DCS, DCMA, WCDMA • WWW bases standards and protocols • in future UMTS and other 3G will bring only more bandwitdth, but the service level will remain the same (WAP) Kalle Lyytinen

17. WAP HTTP WAP-gateway Päätelaite WWW-palvelin Kalle Lyytinen

18. Comparison between Internet and WAP Technologies Wireless Application Protocol Wireless ApplicationEnvironment (WAE) Other Services and Applications HTML JavaScript Transaction Layer (WTP) Session Layer (WSP) HTTP TLS - SSL Security Layer (WTLS) Transport Layer (WDP) TCP/IP UDP/IP Bearers: IS-136 CDPD PDC-P CDMA Etc.. SMS USSD CSD Internet Kalle Lyytinen

19. <?xml version="1.0"?> <!DOCTYPE wml PUBLIC "-//WAPFORUM//DTD WML 1.1//EN" "http://www.wapforum.org/DTD/wml_1.1.xml"> <wml> <card id="get" title="Germany"> <p>City: $(lVar)<br/> Select the time period: <select name="tVar"> <option value="1day" onpick="#get2">1 day</option> <option value="3day" onpick="#get2">3 days</option> </select> </p> </card> <card id="get2" title="Germany"> <p><anchor>Get the forecast<go href="fetch.asp?Tyyppi=weather+$(tVar:e)&amp;text=$(lVar:e)"/></anchor></p> <p><anchor>Change the city<go href="#city"/></anchor></p> </card> </wml> Kalle Lyytinen

20. Client WML WML Encoder WML-Script WMLScript Compiler WTAI Protocol Adapters Content Etc. WAP Application Server WAP Application Server Application Logic WSP/WTP WML Decks with WML-Script Kalle Lyytinen

21. WAP server • platform on which software houses can develop WAP based services • creates a new channel for any type of internet based access • can be used for extranet, intranet and internet based services (connections to Lotus Notes, R3 etc) • generates service requests to a WWW-server or includes itself a MMM-server • Nokia Beta release of the servers available at www.nokia.com/corporate/wap/gateway.html Kalle Lyytinen

22. Features of WAP service • closer to browsing but services more limited due to narrow keyboard and display • user does not have to remember keywords or passwords- can be merged into service portals (ZED) • outlook weblike • both push and pull on demand like in SMS • can utilize forms, icons and pictures • use of hyperslinks possible • WAP services can utilize phone control features that can be found in GSM Kalle Lyytinen

23. Technology enablers: mobile terminals Kalle Lyytinen

24. Mobile Media Time Line NMT GSM HSCSD GPRS UMTS 1981 1992 1999 2000 200x 1st G 2nd G 3rd G Generations of Mobile Telephones (NOKIA) WAP (Wireless Access Protocol) Data: 9.6 kbit/s 14.4 kbit/s 64 kbit/s 2Mbit/s New Communication Services / Jorma Havia 27.08.1999

25. Types of mobile terminals • Portable computers • Communicators • Personal Digital Assistant+mobile phone (or a PCMCIA card able to transmit data) • WAP phones • like Nokia 7110 • Normal GSM phones with text messages Kalle Lyytinen

26. Characteristics of the Communicator • (Nokia 9000, 9110i) • free memory 2 (+10) MB • Internet protocol stack (TCP/IP) run over GSM data circuits (modem access to Internet service provider) • a simple WWW browser • HTTP, Telnet, SMTP, Terminal protocols • business cards, clock, etc • displays are fairly small (120 x 35 mm) Kalle Lyytinen

27. WAP-phones • Wireless Application Protocol environment • microbrowser interpreting Wireless Mark-Up Language (WML) • applications can be written with WML • WAP protocol stack support (not directly IP-support) • small displays (almost like in a voice phone) • memory: ca 1 MB Kalle Lyytinen

28. Mobile Media (Vision) Camera - Mobile phone Prototype MX-1 (Canon) New Communication Services / Jorma Havia 27.08.1999

29. Example: Mobile Virtual Meeting Kalle Lyytinen

30. What is enabled with WAP? • Banking • Timetables • Customer information, phone (connection) books • Customer databases, ordering, • Logistics, production planning, scheduling • maintenance, transportation services Kalle Lyytinen

31. Current media phone services On Demand Information Services Pay by Mobile Train timetables Car wash Weather forecast Drink vending machine Person to Person SMS GSM e-mail Telebanking Kalle Lyytinen

32. Examples of WAP-services(available now in Finland) • General information services • news • traffic announcements • local weather • sports • trading and stocks • Entertainment • jokes • ticket services • gambling Kalle Lyytinen

33. Why WAP is interesting? • WAP combines internet and mobility • power of the installed base • global service • mobile terminals owned by nearly everybody • phones changed by every 18 months • In 2000 c.a. 20 % of sold phones are WAP-phones Kalle Lyytinen

34. Why WAP is interesting ? • SMS has been a phenomenal success: 12 months x 20 msg/subs/month x 0,2 USD/msg x 200.000.000 subs in year 2000= 9.6 B USD • WAP is a way to develop and prepare for next generation (UMTS) services • Will develop a totally new way of thinking Kalle Lyytinen

35. From narrow band to broad band Kalle Lyytinen

36. Transmission speeds for information services PSTN DVB cable Stationary Pedestrian Mobile ISDN xDSL LAN 1990 2001 DVB satellite Bluetooth 2000 1998 GPRS UMTS 2000 2002 DVB terrestrial DAB GSM 1999 2000 1 10 100 1.000 10.000 100.000 Bit rate (kbps) Kalle Lyytinen

37. Edge Routers Kalle Lyytinen

38. From circuit switched to packet switched Kalle Lyytinen

39. How the nature of ’telephony’ is changing State 4. State 3. Delivery of content transactions Next generation mobile service provision ’media phone’ Next generation wireline service provision ’IP MM’ Network connections are used for: Transition 2 Transition 3 Year 1995 - Year 2000 - State 1. State 2. Wireless telephony for voice Traditional voice comms ’Telephony’ Transition 1 Year 1980- Wireline Wireless/Mobile Type of Network connections Kalle Lyytinen

40. Technological infrastructure Horizontal architecture IP Network Application server Community Server

41. Towards New 3G service structures Kalle Lyytinen

42. New access methods to information services Level of interactivity E-commerce, public services E-mail, video- services, voice- mail, chat services Network games WWW information Broad (keyboard) Pay-per-view Netgames Gambling Information brow- sing Broadcast data (super Text TV) Catalogue sales, Simple transactions payments Narrow media phone TV:n watching Direct response advertising Passive digiTV digiTV Entertainment Information services E-commerce, pay- ments, public access Communications Kalle Lyytinen

43. DVB Channels Media Switch Interactive Services Media Switch MUX Service Management DVB-Carousel REMUX Billing Media Switch Media Switch 22 Mbps Internet DVB GSM UMTS WLAN xDSL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Media Screen 3G Internet Services Kalle Lyytinen

44. Billion USD in Europe 25 20 15 10 E-Commerce 5 Audio and Video 0 E-Publishing 1995 2000 2005 2010 3G Internet Services Kalle Lyytinen

45. Main platforms 2000 - DIGITAL TV - more channels; payTV, 24 news, 24 h sports, ... - supertext TV; graphics, hypertext - interactive citizen’s ’information society’ services PC / INTERNET - from passive html-pages to streaming multimedia - from Kb’s to Mb’s - virtual reality MEDIAPHONE / NEW MOBILE NETWORKS - personal device - service adapted to use context (meeting, home, on-the-road) - Serves multiple and changing needs Kalle Lyytinen

46. Digital Television (DVB) Television - Internet Integration (Inet-tv, WEB-tv) New Communication Services / Jorma Havia 27.08.1999

47. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Terrestrial UK Sweden Finland Spain Europe Satellite France, Germany, Italy Cable France UK Germany Terrestrial DTV USA Satellite DirecTV PrimeStar Echostar Cable TCI,Time Open Wamer Cable Terrestrial Japan Satellite PerfectV DirecTV BS Digital Cable Kagoshima Cable Startup of Digital TV Kalle Lyytinen

48. Digital TV Access Million households with dTV Kalle Lyytinen

49. New service combinations and value to the user Kalle Lyytinen

50. VALUE * Total Mobility * Economy of Scope User Satisfaction All devices: Telephone + PC + TV + Mobile+ Digi-TV Few Simple Isolated One Channel Many - All Complex Combined All channels Services Kalle Lyytinen