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Addressing Export Undercoverage and Misallocation: A Comprehensive Analysis

This study delves into the critical issue of export undercoverage and misallocation in trade statistics, exploring measurement efforts and challenges in Canada and the U.S. It examines the implications, methods, and adjustments to improve data accuracy.

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Addressing Export Undercoverage and Misallocation: A Comprehensive Analysis

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  1. EXPORTSUNDERCOVERAGE & MISALLOCATION

  2. INTRODUCTION • Important Quality Issue • Universal and Persistent Problem • Efforts to Measure the Problem • Questions

  3. BACKGROUND • Undercoverage • Misallocation • Canada/U.S. Data Exchange

  4. PROBLEMS WITH TRADE STATISTICS* • Export Undercoverage • Misallocated Trade • Timeliness • Valuation • Detailed commodity classification

  5. * CANADIAN TRADE STATISTICS Imports and Exports What they are-How to use them By R.H. COATS, F.S.S. (Hon) Dominion Statistician Ottawa, Canada Journal of the Canadian Bankers’ Association July, 1926

  6. CANADIAN EXPORTS TO MEXICO:CANADIAN STATISTICS VS. MEXICAN STATISTICS

  7. MISALLOCATION • Less Serious as a Problem • Coordinated Conceptual Work Required • Coordinated Measurement Required

  8. INDICATIONS OF THE PROBLEM • Reconciliation Studies • Ad Hoc Port Studies • SNA Balancing Issues • “Best Estimate” for 2000

  9. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENT • A BoP adjustment is made for trade to Non-U.S. countries for which export customs documents have not been received.

  10. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 1 • Sound Methodology • Measure Level and Change • Steps to Eliminate the Problem

  11. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 2 • Marine Ports – Sample Ship Movements • Airports – Sample Days • Highway Border Crossings – Sample Days • Reconcile Transportation and Trade Documents

  12. UNDERCOVERAGE MEASUREMENT - 3 • Marine and Air Estimates for 2002 • Marine Estimates for 2003/2004 • Air Estimates for 2004 • Highway Estimates

  13. CHANGING CUSTOMS ENVIRONMENT • AMPS Penalties Implemented in Oct. 2002 • No-Load MOUs Being Negotiated with Carriers • Earlier Reporting, More Automation, New Security Measures • CAED Popularity with Exporters

  14. CAED PARTICIPANTS

  15. QUESTIONS: • Is Canada an anomaly because of trading patterns, NAFTA and the data exchange? • Do other OECD countries consider coverage to be a significant quality issue? • Are any other countries attempting to measure the problem? • Are any other countries making a coverage adjustment to BoP or Customs based estimates? • At what stage should coverage adjustments be made - Customs basis, BoP basis, another trade series?

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