Chen Ying (cycass@163bj) Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD),

1. A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database Chen Ying (cycass@163bj.com) Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006

2. Outline • Overview of Emissions Scenarios Database • Analysis on Reference Scenarios • Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios • Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged

3. I. Overview of Emission Scenarios Database • Structure • Sources: 256 • Scenarios: 734 • Regions: • Variables: • Results: 1990-2100, every 10 years 93668 records in total

4. China in the Countries Groupings • China • CPA= China+HK and other 5 countries • ASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19), 34 countries and regions China is 90%-95% of CPA, 50%-60% of ASIAP CPA China ASIAP

5. Models related to China • 13 models developed since 1998 • China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99, • CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98 • ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001 AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN • Categories of models • Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN • Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and MESSAGE • Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM • Scenarios developed: • 85 reference + 111 policy

6. II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios • 85 reference scenarios related to China • China: 3 developed with 3 models • CPA: 5 developed with 2 models • ASIAP: 40 of SRES standardized and 37 of pSRES without standardization

7. Reference Scenarios for China

8. Reference Scenarios for CPA and China/0.95 A2-5.2 SGM99 B A1 RICE99& AIM/EMF16 A3-0.6

9. Reference Scenarios for ASIAP(6 Markers from SRES) A2-10.74 CPA/0.5 B1-0.93

10. What makes the differences?

11. Assumptions of Driving Forces for 6 SRES Markers

12. Which Gives the Right Prediction? • Possible sources for actual data

13. Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data (CPA and China/0.95) Actual data

14. Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data of ASIAP Standardization 1990-2000 Actual data

15. Modeling Results Tends to Overestimate Growth of Developing Countries

16. A Explanation from Driving Forces

17. III. Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios • 111 policy scenarios related to China • 103 with stabilization targets from 450-750ppm • China(14): RICE99 and SGM99 • CPA( 1): DNE21/98 • ASIAP( 88): 72 of pSRES and 16 of pSRES2001 • Some scenarios compare different emissions pathways (WRE ,WGI or MID) with same stabilization targets, or • The impacts of ET (no trade, partial trade or trade)

18. Insights to Stabilization Scenarios • Policy scenarios with different stabilization targets base on same reference • Policy scenarios based on different reference is pursuit of same stabilization targets • Different emissions pathways and the impact of trade conditions • Burden-sharing scheme • Other possible information on mitigation costs

19. More Reductions Required to Achieve Lower Targets Ref 650 550 450

20. More Reductions Required based on Higher Reference Ref-high Ref-low sta-550

21. Burden-sharing Scheme

22. Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for Developing Countries • Analysis on the driving forces

23. IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged • Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be fluctuated with high uncertainty. • The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies in developing countries have clear implications on climate change mitigation. • The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need to be clarified. • The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and basic needs.

24. Thank you!