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Australian PV Market in 2015 ATRAA, August 2010. The scene. Where have we come from? What’s recently happened? What will our customers look like? What will our industry look like? What will our offers look like? What will the market look like? What will our industry look like?.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Australian PV Market

in 2015

ATRAA,

August 2010

the scene
The scene
  • Where have we come from?
  • What’s recently happened?
  • What will our customers look like?
  • What will our industry look like?
  • What will our offers look like?
  • What will the market look like?
  • What will our industry look like?
quick market history
Quick market history
  • Growing: 250%+ in some years
  • Neurotic: consistently
  • Changing: buyers, sellers, suppliers
  • Grid Connected: 90% plus
  • Valuable: $1B at Retail level
recent changes
Recent changes
  • Player numbers; 200-2000
  • PV Brands; 10-150
  • PV Products; 150-2300
  • Big programs; Flagships, Vic FIT
  • Big projects; QUT, Mildura
  • Australian made; On, Off, On
trends and directions
Trends and directions
  • Market trends; residential to plants?
  • Policy directions; FIT’s, LRET, SRET
  • Guarantees; political uncertainty!
  • Aging population; >Res. Buyers?

Retail market value in 2015?

A$2.7 - $4.3 Billion

2015 customers
2015 customers
  • Residential?; much broader demographic, changing drivers
  • Commercial?; ROI rules
  • Industrial?; Victorians
  • Utility?; Residential so far

“The mid-range price band is increasingly loaded with value for customers and sellers; and its where the majority want to be”

VirginBlue

Head of Strategy July 2010

2015 channels to market
2015 channels to market
  • Dramatic change; value chain splitting
  • Maturing; divergent approaches
  • Changing; buyers, sellers, suppliers and customers all churning

2015 prediction ?

50% less players, all upsized

2015 offers
2015 offers
  • Innovation to sell!; distinctiveness will become key
  • Economic!; you will increasingly selling and economic proposition (not panels and inverters)
  • New technologies; targeted at specific solutions

Retail market value in 2015?

A$2.9 - $4.8 Billion

2015 market forecast
2015 market forecast
  • 3 scenarios; bau, med and hi
  • Entirely possible; driven to a large degree by flagships
  • Upside?: more G FIT’s, REC value, or new programs, healthy competition
  • Downside?; Declining REC multiplier, uncertainty, irrational competition

Retail market size in 2015?

475–829MW p/a

Up to:

30MW Off grid

426MW On grid res

373MW On Grid central

2015 industry
2015 industry
  • Sponsored by? Mega corps
  • ATRAA growth to?; 1200+
  • Show bag? ; fitting to the crowd
    • walking cane
    • Hearing aids
    • Iphone7 app
close
Close

“Thanks and goodbye”