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Updated baseline projections for the Revision of the NEC directive NEC Report #4

Updated baseline projections for the Revision of the NEC directive NEC Report #4. M. Amann, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, W. Schöpp International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Contents. Changes since NEC Report #3 The “Coherent scenario” Baseline projections

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Updated baseline projections for the Revision of the NEC directive NEC Report #4

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  1. Updated baseline projections for the Revision of the NEC directiveNEC Report #4 M. Amann, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, W. SchöppInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  2. Contents • Changes since NEC Report #3 • The “Coherent scenario” • Baseline projections • Emissions • Costs • Impacts

  3. Changes since NEC Report #3 • Revised national energy projections for HU, GR, NO, NL, BE • Revised national agricultural projections for BE, ES, UK • New age-specific population projections from EUROSTAT • “Coherent energy scenario” developed by PRIMES

  4. The “Coherent scenario” • Developed by NTUA in 2006 before the decision of the Heads of States • Based on the PRIMES 2003 baseline assumptions • Targets on GHG emissions and renewable energy • Targets for 2030: -35% CO2, 20% renewables, 20-30% increase in energy efficiency • For 2020 these targets come closest to the recent decisions, but they do not meet them exactly: • GDP +53% • total primary energy +6% (+16% in the national projections) • CO2: -22% compared to 1990 (-24% compared to UNFCCC base year) • 17% share of renewable energy • 32% reduction in energy intensity of GDP

  5. Energy consumption EU-272000, National projections and Coherent scenario 2020

  6. Baseline emission projectionsEU-27 Current legislation

  7. SO2 baseline projections for 2010 and 2020 relative to the 2010 NECs

  8. NOx baseline projections for 2010 and 2020 relative to the 2010 NECs

  9. NH3 emission projections for 2010 and 2020 relative to the 2010 NECs

  10. VOC emission projections for 2010 and 2020 relative to the 2010 NECs

  11. Baseline air pollution control costs by SNAP sectorEU-27, 2020

  12. Impact indicators for the baseline projections

  13. Loss in statistical life expectancyattributable to PM2.5 [months] 2000 “Current legislation” baselines National projections Coherent scenario 2020 2020

  14. EutrophicationPercent of ecosystems area with excess nitrogen deposition 2000 “Current legislation” baselines National projections Coherent scenario 2020 2020

  15. Forest acidificationPercent of forest area with excess acid deposition 2000 “Current legislation” baselines National projections Coherent scenario 2020 2020

  16. Conclusion The current uncertainties on the future development of energy and agricultural policies result for 2020 large differences between the National projections +3% CO2) and the Coherent scenario (-22% CO2): • CO2 emissions: 31% higher in NAT than in Coh.Scen. • SO2 emissions: 68% • NOx emissions: 19% • PM2.5 emissions: 14% • NH3 emissions: 1% • VOC emissions: 1% • Control costs: 16% • YOLLs: 20% • Eutrophication area: 5% • Acidifying forest area: 72%

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