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Development of MSC Regional PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS

Development of MSC Regional PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS. Mike Moran, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar , Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, and Balbir Pabla Air Quality Modelling & Integration Division Air Quality Research Branch, Downsview Véronique Bouchet, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe

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Development of MSC Regional PM Air Quality Model: AURAMS

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  1. Development of MSC RegionalPM Air Quality Model: AURAMS Mike Moran, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, and Balbir Pabla Air Quality Modelling & Integration Division Air Quality Research Branch, Downsview Véronique Bouchet, Sophie Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Stéphane Gaudreault, andSylvain Ménard Applications en modélisation de la qualité de l'air Centre Météorologique Canadien, Dorval Presentation for 2004 AQRB Midterm Review – Smog Session Downsview, Ontario 26 October 2004

  2. Talk Outline • Status of Deliverables • Other Achievements & Activities • Planned Activities • Results and Findings

  3. Comment: Have Reached A New Stage NOW THEN

  4. Status of FY04/05 Deliverables

  5. Deliverable 1 1.Multi-processor version of AURAMS (May 04) • OpenMP multi-processor version was released 24 May 2004 (AURAMS version 1.0) • New version is a factor of 5 faster on the IBM cluster at Dorval than the previous version of AURAMS • New version was essential to support ICARTT experiment beginning in July 2004 • MSC personnel (A. Kallaur, B. Pabla, B. He) involved in the code speed-up effort directed by P. Makar received an AQRB Instant Award in July

  6. Deliverable 2 2. Submission of 2 AURAMS manuscripts June04 • Delayed to later in FY by preparations for ICARTT field experiment and by work on 2004 Canadian Acid Rain Science Assessment • Relevant to public release of AURAMS code planned for April 2005

  7. Deliverable 3 3. Real-time forecast support for ICARTT July 04 • Experimental AURAMS real-time daily 48-hour forecasts to support both ICARTT field program and real-time AQ model intercomparison started on July 1, ran throughout Cleveland field project period (July 20Aug. 18), and are continuing indefinitely • The Air Quality Model Applications Group provided 24/7 support for the R-T AURAMS forecasts and delivered forecasts to NOAA for R-T intercomparison • 3 AURAMS scientists served (sequentially) in the field as AQ forecasters to support MSC flight operations

  8. ICARTT (http://www.al.noaa.gov/ICARTT) International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation • Large AQ field experiment over eastern North America and north Atlantic Ocean • July-August 2004, eastern North America (mainly) • Over 500 scientists involved • NOAA, NASA, U.S. Dept of Energy, MSC, Caltech, Harvard, U. Maryland, U. New Hampshire, New York State U., York U., Dalhousie U.

  9. MSC ICARTT CAMPAIGN • The Canadian campaign was • designed to address some AQ forecasting shortcomings. There • were two theatres of operation. • Cleveland (85%): • Chemical Transformation and • transport by Clouds (CTC) • Improve the way AQ models represent aerosol and cloud processes; • More comprehensively evaluate the performance of MSC AQ models • Bangor (15%): • Transport Into the Maritimes (TIMs) • Investigate LRTAP from Washington-Boston corridor

  10. Forecasting Product: 6-Panel Animation of AURAMS Sfc SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, H2O2, O3, NOx Concentration Fields

  11. Forecasting Product: 4-Sided Vertical Cross Section Animation of SO2, p-SO4, p-NO3, O3, and NOx Conc. Fields

  12. Forecast Product: 4-Panel Animation of Selected AURAMS Cloud and Aqueous-Phase Chemistry Fields Vertically-integrated p-SO42- production in cloud Vertically-integrated p-SO42- production in clear air Cloud fraction at 1225 m Cloud liquid water content at 1225 m

  13. ICARTT Real-Time Model Intercomparison • Model intercomparison (O3 at • AIRMAP & AIRNOW stations) • Baron/MCNC MAQSIP (45, 15km) • MSC CHRONOS (21 km) • MSC AURAMS (42 km) • NOAA WRF-CHEM (27, 12 km) • NOAA/EPA CMAQ-ETA (12 km) • U of Iowa STEM (60, 12, 4km) And ensemble AQ forecasts! Example for Chebogue Point on July 21, 2004 during an episode in the Maritimes (aloft)

  14. Other Achievements & Activities • Completion of final version of the section on AURAMS results for 2 case studies and 5 scenarios for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report; this study represents the first policy application of AURAMS (cf. Results and Findings) • Implementation of a plume-rise algorithm for major point sources & an improved SOA formation algorithm • Development of AURAMS modelling plans as part of the draft science plans for two proposed field experiments (Prairie 2005, SwOn/SeMi 2006); • Delivery of AURAMS-related presentations at 7 conference/workshops , 2 seminars, and 1 media briefing in first 6 months of FY

  15. Prairie 2005 • What are the measured advective mass fluxes of PM, O3 and precursors across arbitrary (e.g., politically defined) boundaries (focus on Alberta)? • What are the modelled advective mass fluxes… …across the same boundaries? • How well does (b) match (a)? • Air-quality model forecasts (AURAMS, CHRONOS) used to deploy mobile measurement platforms. • Platforms to measure PM, O3 and precursor concentrations and concentration fluxes. • Post-campaign simulations (AURAMS, CHRONOS, CMAQ) PIs: Brian Wiens, Paul Makar - MSC

  16. BAQSmet 2006 Ontario Region project advised by AQRB measurement and modelling science: • Are AQ and meteorological estimates of boundary layer height • consistent? • (2) How does the Detroit urban boundary layer affect AQ in Windsor? • Are current weather forecast and air quality models capable of • predicting the existence of this region? • (3) Characterization of lake breezes, met and AQ: • how may the measurements and modelling be used to distinguish • between local and long-range transport impacts on the airshed? • (4) What is the impact of lake-breeze generated convection on • local air-quality? How well do meteorological and air-quality • models simulate this convection, and the associated vertical • transport of pollutants?  Again, AURAMS forecasts to be used to deploy aircraft and ground-based measurement platforms.

  17. Planned Activities (1) • Preparation of 2 manuscripts (cf. Deliverable 2) • Delivery of at least one more new model version • Continuing work on AURAMS performance eval’n: • Pacific2001 • CMAQ-AURAMS intercomparison for two cases (joint with OME) • ICARTT real-time model intercomparison • ICARTT field data eval’n (Convair, ozonesondes) • other periods

  18. Planned Activities (2) Continuing work on further improvements to AURAMS, including • “on-the-fly” Aeolian dust and biogenic emissions • wildfire emissions • nested chemical lateral boundary conditions • subgrid-scale vertical transport by convective clouds • inclusion of sea salt in heterogeneous chemistry • faster CAM

  19. Results and Findings Two significant findings from the AURAMS simulations performed for the EC/EPA PM Transboundary Transport Assessment report are that changes in atmospheric PM in ENA in response to emission changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected • to vary strongly by season and • in some areas to vary non-proportionally and even non-directionally

  20. 2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx Emission Reductions, July ‘95 & Feb. ‘98 Cases PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PM2.5 NH4 July 8-18 Feb. 7-15

  21. Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls

  22. Manitoba Smelters - AURAMS simulations in use for Policy on Emissions Controls

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