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2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. 11 May 2011. Ronnie Johnson Strategic Planning United Launch Alliance [email protected] Cover art by Phil Smith, The Tauri Group. Agenda. Membership and Methodology Statistics Market Assessment and Trends Summary.

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2011 commercial gso demand forecast

2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

11 May 2011

Ronnie Johnson

Strategic Planning

United Launch Alliance

[email protected]

Cover art by Phil Smith, The Tauri Group

agenda
Agenda
  • Membership and Methodology
  • Statistics
  • Market Assessment and Trends
  • Summary
working group members
Working Group Members

Ronnie Johnson (2011 GSO Forecast Chair) United Launch Alliance

John Sloan FAA AST

Ken Davidian FAA AST

Eric Laursen Lockheed Martin

Tom Martin Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne

Peter Stier Sea Launch

Tom Monroe Space Systems/Loral

Alan Keisner SpaceX

Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance

forecast methodology
Forecast Methodology
  • Purpose
    • To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general
  • Requested information from ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers,
    • Received responses from 22 companies in 2011 (14 in 2010; 21 in 2009)
      • Individual and comprehensive responses
      • International competitive procurements only
  • Used US inputs only for forecast
    • International inputs used for validation
forecast methodology cont d
Forecast Methodology (cont’d)
  • Sorted satellites by mass categories
    • Small < 2,500 kg
    • Medium 2,500 to 4,200 kg
    • Large 4,200 to 5,400 kg
    • Extra Large > 5,400 kg
  • Determined satellite/launch vehicle demand
    • Near-term manifest (2011-2013)
    • Long-term forecast (2014-2020)
  • Summarized responses to questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans
    • 14 satellite operators responded in 2011 (11 in 2010; 13 in 2009)
      • 12 new responders in 2010
      • 2 operators responded in both 2010 and 2011
2010 commercial gso satellites and launches
2010 Commercial GSO Satellites and Launches

Number of Launches in 2010

Ariane:

6 launches

Proton:

8 launches

Number of Satellites Launched in 2010

Proton:

8 satellites

Ariane:

12 satellites

* = Dual Manifest Launch

slide7
2011 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast Summary

Average 20.5 satellites per year

Average 15.6 launches per year

2011 forecast essentially unchanged from 2010 forecast

forecast sensitivities
Forecast Sensitivities
  • Numerous factors impact launch forecast
    • Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues
    • Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather)
    • New launch vehicles
    • Business planning / financing
    • Regulatory / licensing issues
    • Hosted payloads
    • ITAR-free satellites
  • Realization factor assesses previous forecasts
    • Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted demand over 5-year rolling period
    • Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity
realization factor
Realization Factor

In 2010 the Forecast and the Actual Number of Satellites Launched Were Identical

comparison of last 10 years forecasts
Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts

Last four reports show consistent results

forecast trends
Forecast Trends
  • Near term (Years 1 to 3)
    • Satellites – stable
    • Launch demand – slight increase from 2011 to 2013 reflecting lower pace in 2010
      • Natural “bow wave”
    • Satellite mass – some redistribution toward heavier mass classes
    • Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease
  • Long term (Years 4 to 10)
    • Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year)
    • Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year)
      • Natural decrease over time with lack of information
forecast summary
Forecast Summary
  • Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.5 satellites on 15.6 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years
  • Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market
  • New markets and new applications continue to emerge
  • Forecast methodology is robust, but need to reinforce responsiveness from industry
  • GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information
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