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Finnish Shipping requirements in 2025 -a megatrend approach. Eero Pyhäranta 29.8.2013. Agenda. Research question Methodology Megatrends Industry summaries & shipping requirements Conclusions Q&A. Research Question.

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agenda
Agenda
  • Research question
  • Methodology
  • Megatrends
  • Industry summaries & shipping requirements
  • Conclusions
  • Q&A

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

research question
ResearchQuestion
  • To analyze the current megatrends and their affects to ship transportation in Finland.
  • To analyze industry trends to determine the transportation needs in 2025
    • What type of cargo?
    • What will be the volume?

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

methodology
Methodology

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

gigatrend review
Gigatrend review
  • Gigatrend = globalphenomenabehind the megatrends
  • Gigatrends
    • Populationgrowth
    • Economicalgrowth
    • Technologicaldevelopment
    • ”Speedup”

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

megatrend review
Megatrendreview

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary metal and mineral industry 1 2
Industry Summary: Metal And Mineral Industry (1/2)

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary metal and mineral industry 2 2
Industry Summary: Metal And Mineral Industry (2/2)
  • Possible development
    • Export of late and mid-cycle minerals is expected to increase.
      • Transportation volumes will increase
      • Alternative transportation routes?
    • Volatility in the mineral markets will increase
      • Transportation needs to adapt to the situation

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary chemical industry 1 3
Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (1/3)
  • Chemical industry has invested the most in Finland during the last few years.
  • EU is and will remain as the most important market for the industry.
  • Bulky chemicals are expected to flow from Asia to Europe.

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary chemical industry 2 3
Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (2/3)

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary chemical industry 3 3
Industry Summary: Chemical Industry (3/3)
  • Open questions
    • Despite chemical industry has invested the most, tanker capacity is not increased!
    • Some studies estimate oil volumes to decline?
    • Solid chemicals (fertilizers, etc.)
    • Rail road cargo?

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary forest pulp paper 1 2
Industry Summary: Forest, Pulp & Paper (1/2)
  • Structural change in the industry
  • Wood product industry focus on more specialized and more processed materials
    • Transportation requirements might differ
  • No major changes in the wood product cargo.

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary forest pulp paper 2 2
Industry Summary: Forest, Pulp & Paper (2/2)
  • Pulp & paper cargo will decrease
    • How to balance the import / export?
  • Generally, pulp and paper companies are still focusing on operational improvements not in new investments.
    • ”Bio-economy” takes time

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary technology industry 1 3
Industry Summary: Technology Industry (1/3)

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

R&D expenses, investments

industry summary technology industry 2 3
Industry Summary: Technology Industry (2/3)
  • Focus on high value investment goods
    • Adjustable production and on time deliveries
  • Volumes might decrease in the future
    • Investments in R&D, sales and other supporting functions
    • Real investments have been decreasing
    • Focus on niche markets
  • Value of the cargo will increase

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary technology industry 3 3
Industry Summary: Technology Industry (3/3)
  • Cargo will be more volatile
  • Technological trends and product cycles even shorter
    • Cargo predictability is likely to decrease
  • Customer requirements are individual and they will change in time.
  • New solutions to transportation offering?

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

industry summary commerce sector
Industry Summary: Commerce Sector
  • Consumer trade will become more complex in the future.
  • Fierce competition in the industry.
  • Challenging equation:
    • Individual requirements + technology development = low cost?
  • Commerce industry is import intensive
    • Could this be utilized when maximizing the capacity usage?
  • Succees in commerce = superb business modes + operational excellence!

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

part 2 conclusions
PART 2: Conclusions

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Four crucial megatrends
    • Economic growth in emerging countries
    • Multipolarization
    • Speed-up
    • Environmental awareness
  • Cargo outlook
    • Metals mineral ↗
    • Pulp & paper ↘
    • Technology →
    • Chemical industry ↗?
    • Commerce →

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

conclusions1
Conclusions
  • Vessel requirements
    • Energy efficiency
      • Cost reduction
    • Agile, flexibility
      • Frequently changing customer requirements
      • More specific customer requirements within the industry
    • Business model?

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

slide21
Q&A?

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

backup slides
BackupSlides

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach

backup slides1
BackupSlides

Finnish Shipping requirements - A megatrend approach