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Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile. A Description and Analysis of the IFPRI Farm Survey on Climate Change. Noémie Defourny Ms. in Economics , UCL ( Belgium ). Internship Timeline. ILRI: Static Bio Physical Household level Model

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Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile

A Description and Analysis of

the IFPRI Farm Survey on Climate Change

Noémie Defourny

Ms. in Economics , UCL (Belgium)

internship timeline
Internship Timeline
  • ILRI:

Static Bio PhysicalHouseholdlevel Model

Cikeda (Cirad) - IAT (CSIRO)

Solutions Feasability in Boneya


NBDC Data set 2005-IFPRI

nile basin development challenge
Nile Basin Development Challenge

Objective: to improve the resilience of rural livelihoods in the Ethiopian highlands through a landscape approach to rainwater management.

  • Water scarcity and land degradation – concerns livelihoods of millions households in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Water for agriculture – crop production to feed population and Animal

70 to 90% of the all water used in the region.

  • Growing populations
  • Need - to reverse land degradation

- to improve water productivity.

  • Landscape (watershed) approach to rainwater management

To better target or ‘match’ promising technologies (or whole strategies) with particular environments.

nile basin development challenge1
Nile Basin Development Challenge

N3 : on Targeting and scaling out

Objective : creating feasibility maps for rainwater management strategies that include socio-economic constraints.

One approach : Mapping Willingness of Adoption

Procedure :

Define adoption rules

Based on census data (=data for the whole basin),

simulate “virtual farmers”

Run adoption rules on the simulated farmer

integrating socio economic into feasibility maps
Integrating socio economic into feasibility maps

Bio-physical suitability

Willingness to adopt

Feasibility map

objective of the internship
Objective of the internship
  • Aggregate the IFPRI “Climate Change” survey (phase 1) to farm level
  • Describe the dataset in terms of Water Related and Soil Conservation Practices
  • Compute Variables
  • Run first Adoption Models
ifpri farm s urvey on climate change 2005
IFPRIFarmSurvey on Climate Change (2005)
  • General features:

Geo-referenced (GPS coordinates)

1,000 households (6,168 individuals)

3 Regions: Fogera, Jeldu and Dapo areas.


51.4% of male

48.6% of female

Ethnic 40% Oromo Ethnic group

31% Amhara

15% Tigrayan

15% BeninshangulGumuz

5.00% from SNPP

Religion 86.7% Christian

13% are Islamic.

descriptive statistics
Descriptive Statistics
  • Household level Characteristics

90.10% household heads male

Age: head45 years old

spouse 35 years

Size < 6 persons

Farmer’s experience in agriculture 23 years

Education 5 years of school

household characteristics cont d
Household characteristics (cont’d)

Assets Drought power: 72.2% own oxen

32.4% donkey

12% own horse

Labor Labor intensive: Meher, Livestock, Perennials

Own labor:

Hired labor:

Off-farm jobs: seasonal trends Meher > Belg (trader, paid laborers)

household characteristics cont d1
Household characteristics (cont’d)
  • LandTotal 1.9 ha

3 plots/H, 0.79 Ha

Water Source Rainfed 95.26%, river 2%

Distance to homestead 1.4 km


household characteristics cont d2
Household characteristics (cont’d)
  • Fertility 60% moderately

30% plots highly

  • Use
  • Erosion Exposure
access to water
Access to Water
  • Distance31.7 km
  • Source of Water
  • Pump 2.60 % Hh

Type Diesel ; 23% Manual

Ownership 69.20% HH jointly

Purpose Irrigate the crops; garden

access to water cont d
Access to Water (cont’d)
  • Water Storage 8.50% Hh




access to advice market and credits
Access to Advice, Market and Credits
  • Access to Advice
  • Access to Market
  • Transportation 93.83% On foot

3.34%. Animal

2.43% Motorized vehicle

access to advice market and credits cont d
Access to Advice, Market and Credits (cont’d)
  • Access to Credit

50.00% have at least borrowed money once.




shocks and aid
Shocks and Aid
  • Aid

Reason for aid activity’ implementation


crop level characteristics cont d1
Crop level Characteristics (cont’d)
  • Soil Conservation techniques

74.5% households practices at least one type


  • Type
  • Purpose
perennials cont d
Perennials (cont’d)
  • Irrigation4.10% Hh

Furrow at 48.44% , sprinkle

1 pump

  • FertilizersOnly Manure

4.30% of household

6.20% perennials

  • Share 78.2% perennials - 100% plot

20.81% perennials - ≤50% plot

  • Sell36.9% of household

92.3% of household - 3,576 animals.

17.4% of livestock are lost of disease

  • Type
livestock cont d
Livestock (cont’d)
  • Source of Feed:
  • Source of water:
perception of climate change over last 20 yrs
Perception of Climate Change (over last 20 yrs)
  • Variation of Rainfall Declined according to 61.53% Hh
  • Variation of Temperature # of Hot Days, 67.72% Hh
  • Perceived Cause of rainfall variation Poor vegetation cover (78.98% )
  • Variation of vegetation cover 50% Hh unchanged, for 35% decreasing.
  • Major constraints in changing your farming ways
perception of climate change cont d
Perception of Climate Change (cont’d)
  • Adjustments made to LT shifts

- in temperature

- in rainfalls

willingness to adopt
Willingness to Adopt

Model Specification

  • The framework can be estimated with a multivariate PROBIT estimation. Qualitative depend variable Probit: linear probability model

y= α+ βn,ixn,i+ βn+1,ixn+1,i+εi

y= Pr(PumpT)

  • Coefficient Estimators are not BLUE
  • R² is not a good measure of equation performance.

Pseudo-r² (goodness-of fit, maximum loglikelihood)


First Adoption Models

1. Adoption of Pump as a Water Management Strategy technology


3. Adoption of SC Techniques

(Soil bunds, Stone bunds, Grass Stripes and Plouhging contour)


More productive farmers, closer to market, hiring labour, owning oxen and being informed.


Plot near homestead, middle size farmers


Poorer farmers, further from market & more likely to received Aid


Thank you for

your Attention


Thank you for


me at ILRI/IWMI!