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Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile. A Description and Analysis of the IFPRI Farm Survey on Climate Change. Noémie Defourny Ms. in Economics , UCL ( Belgium ). Internship Timeline. ILRI: Static Bio Physical Household level Model

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slide1

Adoption of Rainwater Management Practice in the Blue Nile

A Description and Analysis of

the IFPRI Farm Survey on Climate Change

Noémie Defourny

Ms. in Economics , UCL (Belgium)

internship timeline
Internship Timeline
  • ILRI:

Static Bio PhysicalHouseholdlevel Model

Cikeda (Cirad) - IAT (CSIRO)

Solutions Feasability in Boneya

  • ILRI-IWMI:

NBDC Data set 2005-IFPRI

nile basin development challenge
Nile Basin Development Challenge

Objective: to improve the resilience of rural livelihoods in the Ethiopian highlands through a landscape approach to rainwater management.

  • Water scarcity and land degradation – concerns livelihoods of millions households in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Water for agriculture – crop production to feed population and Animal

70 to 90% of the all water used in the region.

  • Growing populations
  • Need - to reverse land degradation

- to improve water productivity.

  • Landscape (watershed) approach to rainwater management

To better target or ‘match’ promising technologies (or whole strategies) with particular environments.

nile basin development challenge1
Nile Basin Development Challenge

N3 : on Targeting and scaling out

Objective : creating feasibility maps for rainwater management strategies that include socio-economic constraints.

One approach : Mapping Willingness of Adoption

Procedure :

Define adoption rules

Based on census data (=data for the whole basin),

simulate “virtual farmers”

Run adoption rules on the simulated farmer

integrating socio economic into feasibility maps
Integrating socio economic into feasibility maps

Bio-physical suitability

Willingness to adopt

Feasibility map

objective of the internship
Objective of the internship
  • Aggregate the IFPRI “Climate Change” survey (phase 1) to farm level
  • Describe the dataset in terms of Water Related and Soil Conservation Practices
  • Compute Variables
  • Run first Adoption Models
ifpri farm s urvey on climate change 2005
IFPRIFarmSurvey on Climate Change (2005)
  • General features:

Geo-referenced (GPS coordinates)

1,000 households (6,168 individuals)

3 Regions: Fogera, Jeldu and Dapo areas.

Gender

51.4% of male

48.6% of female

Ethnic 40% Oromo Ethnic group

31% Amhara

15% Tigrayan

15% BeninshangulGumuz

5.00% from SNPP

Religion 86.7% Christian

13% are Islamic.

descriptive statistics
Descriptive Statistics
  • Household level Characteristics

90.10% household heads male

Age: head45 years old

spouse 35 years

Size < 6 persons

Farmer’s experience in agriculture 23 years

Education 5 years of school

household characteristics cont d
Household characteristics (cont’d)

Assets Drought power: 72.2% own oxen

32.4% donkey

12% own horse

Labor Labor intensive: Meher, Livestock, Perennials

Own labor:

Hired labor:

Off-farm jobs: seasonal trends Meher > Belg (trader, paid laborers)

household characteristics cont d1
Household characteristics (cont’d)
  • LandTotal 1.9 ha

3 plots/H, 0.79 Ha

Water Source Rainfed 95.26%, river 2%

Distance to homestead 1.4 km

Certification

household characteristics cont d2
Household characteristics (cont’d)
  • Fertility 60% moderately

30% plots highly

  • Use
  • Erosion Exposure
access to water
Access to Water
  • Distance31.7 km
  • Source of Water
  • Pump 2.60 % Hh

Type Diesel ; 23% Manual

Ownership 69.20% HH jointly

Purpose Irrigate the crops; garden

access to water cont d
Access to Water (cont’d)
  • Water Storage 8.50% Hh

Type

Ownership

Purpose

access to advice market and credits
Access to Advice, Market and Credits
  • Access to Advice
  • Access to Market
  • Transportation 93.83% On foot

3.34%. Animal

2.43% Motorized vehicle

access to advice market and credits cont d
Access to Advice, Market and Credits (cont’d)
  • Access to Credit

50.00% have at least borrowed money once.

Purpose

Source

Frequency

shocks and aid
Shocks and Aid
  • Aid

Reason for aid activity’ implementation

Type

crop level characteristics cont d1
Crop level Characteristics (cont’d)
  • Soil Conservation techniques

74.5% households practices at least one type

Type

perennials
Perennials
  • Type
  • Purpose
perennials cont d
Perennials (cont’d)
  • Irrigation4.10% Hh

Furrow at 48.44% , sprinkle

1 pump

  • FertilizersOnly Manure

4.30% of household

6.20% perennials

  • Share 78.2% perennials - 100% plot

20.81% perennials - ≤50% plot

  • Sell36.9% of household
livestock
Livestock

92.3% of household - 3,576 animals.

17.4% of livestock are lost of disease

  • Type
livestock cont d
Livestock (cont’d)
  • Source of Feed:
  • Source of water:
perception of climate change over last 20 yrs
Perception of Climate Change (over last 20 yrs)
  • Variation of Rainfall Declined according to 61.53% Hh
  • Variation of Temperature # of Hot Days, 67.72% Hh
  • Perceived Cause of rainfall variation Poor vegetation cover (78.98% )
  • Variation of vegetation cover 50% Hh unchanged, for 35% decreasing.
  • Major constraints in changing your farming ways
perception of climate change cont d
Perception of Climate Change (cont’d)
  • Adjustments made to LT shifts

- in temperature

- in rainfalls

willingness to adopt
Willingness to Adopt

Model Specification

  • The framework can be estimated with a multivariate PROBIT estimation. Qualitative depend variable Probit: linear probability model

y= α+ βn,ixn,i+ βn+1,ixn+1,i+εi

y= Pr(PumpT)

  • Coefficient Estimators are not BLUE
  • R² is not a good measure of equation performance.

Pseudo-r² (goodness-of fit, maximum loglikelihood)

results
Results:

First Adoption Models

1. Adoption of Pump as a Water Management Strategy technology

slide29

3. Adoption of SC Techniques

(Soil bunds, Stone bunds, Grass Stripes and Plouhging contour)

results1
Results
  • PUMPS

More productive farmers, closer to market, hiring labour, owning oxen and being informed.

  • TREE PLANTING

Plot near homestead, middle size farmers

  • SC TECHNIQUES

Poorer farmers, further from market & more likely to received Aid

slide31

Thank you for

your Attention

&

Thank you for

welcoming

me at ILRI/IWMI!