ETUI Conference Climate Change Opportunity for Social Cooperation 29 March 2011 Brussels

1. Impact of climate change onpublic services in Europe Jan Willem GoudriaanEuropean Federation of Public Service Trade Unions ETUI Conference Climate Change Opportunity for Social Cooperation 29 March 2011 Brussels

2. Combatingclimate change requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies • Addressingclimate change couldbe an opportunity for public services’ unions • EU climate change policies are biaisedtowardsmarket-basedapproaches • EPSU strategy

3. Combating climate change requires a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies

4. Linking mitigation and adaptation • Overwhelmingscientific proof of climate change, (estimates conservative?) humanactivities are crucial factors, and thiscanbecatastrophic, particularly for public infrastructure and services • Mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) is essential to prevent the avoidable…Adaptation is essential to cope with the unavoidable.

5. Water stress and droughts Changes in severity of water stress and drought frequencies by 2070 Source: Centers for environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. June 2001

6. Coastal flooding People actually flooded (thousands/year) across Europe by 2080s– Optimistic scenario Source: PESETA project. Coastal systems assessment

7. Each of the last 13 yearswasamong the 14 warmestyears on record 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

8. Climate change couldbe an • opportunity for public services’ unions

9. Public services are at the fore front of climate action • Adaptation and mitigation bringopportunities for the creation of secure, quality jobs in all public services and utilities : • Energysupply and distribution • Waste and Water management • Health care, social services • Central, local and regionalgovernments • Prevention, disaster, planning • Public-Public Partnershipswithdeveloping countries • However, adaptation will require a major departure from business as usual in terms of skills and practices

10. Environmental Services in EPSU • Four sectors of public service character (solid waste management, waste water treatment, general public administration related to environment, and nature protection) make up almost 90% of total employment in pollution management industries. • And many other services will see change

11. Central Government • Environmental protection agencies • Meteorological services • Public buildings and infrastructure • Insurance, financial, economicregulation • Research • Security/ defence

12. Social Services • Impact on lowincomehouseholds • Advisory services - energy • Emergency situations • Migration (EU COM  » displaced populations »

13. Municipal and Local Government • Tasks and responsibilities for disaster risk reduction and most of the mitigation, preparedness, planning and recovery efforts have been transferred to this level • Responsible for key local infrastructures – urban transport, health care, refuse, water, energy, planning, coordination of emergency services (firefighting, police, ambulance, civil protecion..) • But - sufficient human and financial resources (local budgets)

14. Health • Diseases – differentregional impacts • Consumer of energy- CO2 producing • Adaptation • Surveillance • Beingprepared for extreme conditions (cold, heatwaves) • Longer term perspectives…

15. Utilities • Water and Waste Water Treatment • Electricity and Gas • Shifts in employmentacrosssectors • Challenges – smart grids, smart meters • Waste • Collection, sorting, recycling • Investmentneedsenormous • Risk of marketbased solutions

16. Box 3: Report from the UK electricity and gas regulator (OFGEM) - Options for delivering secure and sustainable energy supplies • The UK regulator OFGEM published a report in February 2010. It examines if the “current arrangements in GB are adequate for delivering secure and sustainable electricity and gas supplies over the next 10-15 years. The key issues are: • There is a need for unprecedented levels of investment to be sustained over many years in difficult financial conditions and against a background of increased risk and uncertainty • The uncertainty in future carbon prices is likely to delay or deter investment in low carbon technology and lead to greater decarbonisation costs in the future. • Short term price signals at times of system stress do not fully reflect the value that customers place on supply security which may mean that the incentives to make additional peak energy supplies available and to invest in peaking capacity are not strong enough. • Interdependence with international markets exposes GB to a range of additional risks that may undermine GB security of supply. • The higher cost of gas and electricity may mean that increasing numbers of consumers are not able to afford adequate levels of energy to meet their requirements and that the competitiveness of industry and business is affected years.

17. Opportunities for progressive social change • Better working conditions: shorten working hours, reduced air pollution • Increased democratic control of the economy, less market competition • Reduced social inequalities • Gender equality • Strengthened social protection systems

18. EU climate change policies are biaisedtowards a market-basedapproach

19. EU White Paper on Adaptation (April 2009) • Stronglypromotesmarketbased instruments such as privateinsurance and Public-PrivatePartnerships, despiteevidence of theirinefficiency in delivering public goods (e.g. PSIRU) But : • Acknowledges that climate change worsens existing inequalities across regions and households • Recommends an assessment of the potential employment impacts of climate change in Europe

20. EU climate change and energy package • Europe must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 • Carbontrading ‘mantra’ • Establishes White Certificatestrading • A liberalisedelectricity and gasmarketisassumed to be positive for environmental goals

21. Europe 2020 Strategy for Growth and Jobs • Europe 2020 strategy makes the case for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth • Flagships initiative « Resource efficient Europe » : « Decouple economic growth from the use of resources, support the shift towards a low carbon economy, increase the use of renewable energy sources, modernise our tranport sector and promote energy efficiency ».

22. Europe 2050 TowardsLowCarbon Society • New targets • Power sector to deliver major effort • Build environment (public buildings...) • Emphasis on Energy Efficiency but not binding • Stresses role of private sector and private savings in delivering investment while recognising market does not deliver • Skimpy on Just Transition – funding for change

23. Environment, Climate Change and Austerity • Concerns about job cuts • Human resource capacity in regulatory agencies – environmental protection (nuclear safety ??) • Pay freezes and cuts • Recruitment and retention of qualified staff ? • Resources • What is core business ?

24. AnnualGrowth Survey, EconomicGovernance • Reprioritising the targets and EU 2020 strategy • Absence of positive social agenda, poverty reduction measures and climate change policies • (sole focus on energy...) • Euro-Pact-Plus • Further reinforces the Annual Growth Strategy • No positive environmental side • Austerity endangers steps towards low-carbon environmentally friendly economy

25. Recommendations for EPSU policystrategy

26. Support a EU ‘Just Employment Transition’ package • Strengthened social dialogue on climate change, supported by employment impact assessment studies • A massive EU investment programme in labour intensive, green public infrastructure and services, creating quality employment. • An EU Strategy for skills development and retraining of the workforce in order to make the transition to new green jobs possible for the workers • Strengthened social protection systems • Public services solutions for deliveringenergyefficiency and renewableenergy

27. Just Employment Transition Electricity • Social dialogue electricity EPSU/EMCEF –Eurelectric project: Towards a low carbon electricity: employment effects and opportunities for the social partners • Just transition – shift (transition) towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly economy based on social dialogue between governments, employers and trade unions in a way that promotes high economic growth and investments in low carbon technologies while ensuring a smooth transition through adaptation and mitigation actions as well as through development of skilling and reskilling programmes and the creation of quality jobs

28. Endorse a proactive climate change agenda • EPSU consider EU emissions reduction commitment to 30%, given that: • Developed countries’ fair share of effort is estimated to 25-40% by the IPCC • Substantial co-benefits would accrue to public services sectors and workers, as well as most vulnerable social groups • Flexibility mechanisms lessen the costs of achieving 30% target • Emissions have fallen as a result of the economic crisis • BUT with conditions: more commitment of large emitting countries, funding for just transition - investment, training and jobs for those sectors and regions affected and safeguarding investment in the most efficient technologies.. • Binding EU energy efficiency targets for 2020 • EU targets on green and social public procurement • Beyond GDP

29. For discussion: Rethink the relationshipbetweengrowth and well-being • The « myth of decoupling » : continuedeconomicgrowthwith continually declining material throughput is possible • Achieving an equitable distribution of incomesacross nations impliesthatmaterialgrowth is curtailed in the richer nations • Social change – including changes in working time, consumption patterns, and social modes of organization – will be as important as technological advances • Developing new measurements of progressthatincludeenvironmental and social indicators (Beyond GDP)

30. www.epsu.org

31. ...faster than expected • IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative • Subsequent research shows increasing rates of: • Global Greenhouse Gas emissions • Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic ice-sheets, alpine glaciers) • Sea level rise Also: • carbon stored in permafrost = twice the atmospheric carbon

32. Climate change isoccuring … Temperature: +0.74°C since 100 years 1,3 mm/year since 1870 1,8 mm/year since 1961 3,1 mm/year since 1993 Sea level rise Glacier and snow cover retreat