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EUROPEAN GOVERNANCE AND THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF PUBLIC GOODS: From the Rome treaty to the present crisis of the euro zone. Robert Boyer Centro de Excelencia Jean Monnet, Buenos Aires 23 de Augusto de 2011. INTRODUCTION. The triple origin of this presentation:

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EUROPEAN GOVERNANCE AND THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF PUBLIC GOODS: From the Rome treaty to the present crisis of the euro zone

Robert Boyer

Centro de Excelencia Jean Monnet, Buenos Aires 23 de Augusto de 2011

introduction
INTRODUCTION
  • The triple origin of this presentation:
    • An early investigation about the post euro governance in Europe

Le gouvernement économique de la zone euro (1999), La documentation Française, Paris.

    • A normative approach of the distribution of competences between Europe and Member-States

Political Goals, Legal Norms and Public Goods: The Building Blocks of Europe? (2006), Prisme n° 8, Centre Cournot, Paris.

    • An interpretation of the emerging Euro crisis

“Integracion productive y financiera en la Union Europea. De la sinergia al conflicto”, Puente@Europa, Dinamicas productivas de la integración: comercio, moneda, trabajo e industria, Ano VIII, n° 1, Abril 2010, p. 31-47

slide3
The approach: the interaction between two issues
    • According to the theory of public goods, ideally how should the distribution of competences be organized?
    • What does the sovereign debt crisis tell us about the institutional mismatch of European governance?
slide4
The synopsis of the presentation
    • According to a public good approach, how should be organized European governance?
    • How to interpret the discrepancy observed with the actual integration pattern?
    • The organization of competition on the common market has been the core of related European public goods.
    • A forgotten major public good: financial stability within the Euro zone.
i the normative economic approach
I. The normative economic approach
  • A strong contrast with the legal approach: the performativity of European Treaty in the delimitation of competences….

…..And the judge is in charge of overcoming possible conflicts and contradictions

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II. The economic rationale for an European public good is not a sufficient condition for its creation
  • Not all the public goods held to be naturally European have given rise to intervention or supply on a European level
    • Intra-European transport, a Community competences in the treaties as remained rather theoretical. A rare exception: the European Air Safety Agency (June 2002)
slide9
Defence, which theorists consider a “natural” public good, has not become such due to conflicting national conceptions at the political level.
  • Science, should define an emerging European public good quite essential to the future of Europe’s competitive position. Despite a few large European programmes most research policy continues to be conducted at the national level. Hence, large costs of “non Europe” in terms of innovation policies.
slide10
In contrast, the European Union exercises competences in domains where the European character of the corresponding public goods has not been established
    • The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a striking case. The resolute defence of national farms’ interests by certain countries explains this path and past dependence, although the percentage of European community funds to farming has slowly fallen and the CAP has been significantly transformed.
slide11
The remarkable fact that the big countries resort to often massive aid for their farming sector shows that economists should abandon pure public goods theory and focus on a political economic analysis of State intervention.
slide12
III. The organization of competition on the common market has been the core of related European public goods.
  • The primacy, centrality and driving force of competition in the internal market
figure 1 the spiral of europeanization treaty directive jurisprudence and so on
Figure 1 – The spiral of Europeanization: Treaty, directive, jurisprudence…and so on.
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Interdependence between public goods can favour their recognition and their institutionalization
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Figure 2 – The constitution of a European market, guiding theme in the extension of Community competences
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Three main failings of public goods economic theory
    • The historicity of the process of European integration
    • There is no separability of public goods, they are largely interdependent.
    • Economics mainly favours non cooperative strategies whereas the Monnet method promotes explicitly cooperative strategies by using deliberation and political discussion to build a convergence of interests.
iv a forgotten major public good financial stability within the euro zone
IV. A forgotten major public good: financial stability within the Euro zone
  • A dangerous illusion: monetary stability does not mean neither real convergence nor financial stability
    • A quick and surprising convergence of nominal interest rate on national public debt
    • Real convergence is more problematic
slide18

Graph 1 – A convergence of 10 years Treasury bonds interest rate

Source : Patrick Artus (2010), « Quelle perspective à long terme pour la zone euro ?, Flash Economie, n° 158, 12 Avril, p. 4.

slide19

Graph 2 – GDP per capita (Euro): the convergence has stopped

Source: Artus Patrick (2011), “La crise de la zone euro nous apprend beaucoup sur le fonctionnement des Unions Monétaires ; l’euro est-il sauvé?”, Flash Economie, n° 599, 9 août, p. 6.

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Why are public finance and financial stability challenged by the Euro?
    • Each Member-State has lost two major economic policy instruments: the interest rate and exchange rate
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The Euro fosters an unprecedented division of labour among Member-State
    • Diverging adjustment processes for productive capacities
slide24
Graph 3 – A deepening of intra-European specialization: manufacturing in the North, service in the South

A – Share of manufacturing in total value added

B – Employment in domestic services (100 in 1999.1)

Source: Patrick Artus (2011) “Pourquoi n’a-t-on pas vu, de 1999 à 2007, les problèmes de l’Espagne, du Portugal, de l’Irlande, de la Grèce? »”, Flash Economie, n° 534, 9 juillet, p. 5.

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Graph 4 - The cumulative polarization of trade surpluses and deficits after the launching of the Euro(% GDP)

Source: Patrick Artus (2010) “La fin du mythe de la convergence dans la zone Euro”, Flash Economie, n° 695, 22 décembre.

graph 5 the complementarity among the various national growth regimes in the eu
Graph 5 –The complementarity among the various national growth regimes in the EU

Source: Patrick Artus (2010) “La fin du mythe de la convergence dans la zone Euro”, Flash Economie, n° 695, 22 décembre, p. 7-8-10 .

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Graph 6 – A very low competitiveness for some Southern European countries

Source : Patrick Artus (2010), « Quelle perspective à long terme pour la zone euro ? », Flash Economie, n° 158, 12 Avril, p. 3.

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A fast financial integration within the EU appears as a substitute for economic policy coordination and fiscal solidarity
    • A rapid diversification of financial portfolio.
    • An easy financing of public deficits by banks and financial institutions.
    • A false assessment by the international financial community: all public debts have the same (German) high quality.
a greek treasury bonds

Table 5 – Which banks own the European treasury bonds?

A – Greek treasury bonds

Source: Artus Patrick (2011), “Que faire si des grands pays de la Zone Euro sont, dans le futur, en difficulté avec leurs dettes publiques”, Flash Economie, n° 584, 28 juillet, p. 5.

b spanish and italian treasury bonds

Table 5 – Which banks own the European treasury bonds?

B – Spanish and Italian treasury bonds

Source: Artus Patrick (2011), “Que faire si des grands pays de la Zone Euro sont, dans le futur, en difficulté avec leurs dettes publiques”, Flash Economie, n° 584, 28 juillet, p. 8.

c share of ownership of spanish and italian treasury bonds by non residents

Table 5 – Which banks own the European treasury bonds?

C – Share of ownership of Spanish and Italian treasury bonds by non residents

Source: Artus Patrick (2011), “Que faire si des grands pays de la Zone Euro sont, dans le futur, en difficulté avec leurs dettes publiques”, Flash Economie, n° 584, 28 juillet, p. 8.

graph 7 the interest rate on 10 years of public bonds a brutal divergence after the subprime crisis
Graph 7 –The interest rate on 10 years of public bonds: a brutal divergence after the subprime crisis

Source: Artus Patrick (2011), “La crise de la zone euro nous apprend beaucoup sur le fonctionnement des Unions Monétaires ; l’euro est-il sauvé?”, Flash Economie, n° 599, 9 août, p. 5.

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Graph 8 –Two crises: a public finance issue for Greece and Portugal, an excessive private credit for Ireland and Spain
slide34
The Euro is first a shield against the subprime crisis and then a liability
    • A consequence of the diverging trends in public finance…
    • …An thus financial markets brutally reassess the relative sustainability of public finances among European countries
slide35

Figure 3 – Financial speculation reveals some of the institutional unbalances of European governance

slide36

Graph 9 – A clear speculative component in the Greek crisis

Source : Patrick Artus (2010), Flash,

n° 90,

23 février

slide37
The failure of a prudential approach to European integration
    • A consequence of the diverging trends in public finance…
    • …An thus financial markets brutally reassess the relative sustainability of public finances among European countries
figure 4 disentangling the various causes of the euro zone crisis
Figure 4 – Disentangling the various causes of the Euro zone crisis

Low interest rate

The Greek strategy: a public deficit led growth

EURO

No enforcement of the stability and growth pact

Loss of competitiveness

The Greek debt is not sustainable

Absence of any institutionalized bailing out process

Systemic crisis

Reveals

Financial speculation

slide39
The need for a significant institutional readjustment of the European governance
    • A multiplicity of options….
    • …But difficult to implement in the eye of hurricane….
    • …The danger of confusing the way out of the present sovereign debt crisis with the restructuring of European governance that would prevent its repetition.
conclusion a complex systemic crisis of european integration
CONCLUSION: A COMPLEX SYSTEMIC CRISIS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

C1 – The economic theory of public goods delivers an interesting diagnosis about the relevance of the present distribution of competences: it is far from ideal.

C2 – The European governance is the outcome of a quite pragmatic approach to transnational institution building. It is not surprising to exhibit structural weaknesses. They are revealed by the present sovereign debt crisis.

slide44
C3 – The Euro has been introduced as a necessary complement to the deepening of the internal market, in order to foster competition led growth regimes, but the new unbalances and causes of structural crisis typical to the Euro zone have not been clearly perceived.

C4 – This was a response to exchange rate instability associated to financial globalization. Paradoxically, financialization has transitorily allowed the diverging trends in productive capacities between North and Southern Europe.

slide45
C5 – The current doubts about various national sovereign debts are not only the expression of unwise public finance policies and of the speculative patterns typical of unregulated financial markets. They are also an evidence for a major institutional mismatch in European integration.

C6 – Financial stability appears as the missing European public good, both for overcoming the present turmoil and designing a more coherent and resilient European Union.

slide46
C7 – The July 2011 European plan

Neither solves the bailing out of the most challenged countries, since it promotes a competition ledbeggar my neighbour austerity strategy…

…Nor is it designing a credible reconfiguration of European governance: a prudential approach of governance is a poor substitute for anexplicit fiscal and political solidarity.

many thanks for your attention
Many thanks for your attention

Robert BOYERCEPREMAP (Paris) – GREDEG (Sophia Antipolis)140, rue du Chevaleret 75013 PARIS, FranceTél. : (33-1) 40 77 84 12

e-mail : robert.boyer@ens.fr

web site : http://www.jourdan.ens.fr/~boyer/