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New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project

This project aims to quantify vulnerability to drought by deconstructing it into stress, susceptibility, and crisis. The research questions focus on identifying crisis events, measuring environmental stress, and quantifying susceptibility. The project uses media analysis, water stress computation using the WaterGAP model, and data collection from three case study regions. This paper presents the initial results from the project.

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New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams Project

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  1. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel Joseph Alcamo (Project leader) Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz (Project manager) Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard KleinLilibeth Acosta-Michlik A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought: Results from the Security Diagrams ProjectFunded by German Research Ministry Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community  Montreal, Canada  16-18 October, 2003

  2. A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought:Results from the Security Diagrams Project

  3. Introduction to the Security Diagrams Project Overriding research question: How can vulnerability of society to global change be quantified?

  4. Why quantify vulnerability? • To provide framework for comparing and integrating different disciplinary perspectives. • To include vulnerability in climate impact models, in integrated models, and other models.

  5. Crises event Environmental Stress High probabilityof crises Low probability of crises Not a crisis Susceptibility Framework for Quantifying Vulnerability:Security Diagram Security diagrams deconstruct vulnerability into stress, susceptibility and crisis

  6. Conceptual Overview Environmental Stress Susceptibility Likelihood of Crisis

  7. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  8. Approach of Project • Focus: Vulnerability of population to drought • Analysis • Estimate crisis events – Media analysis • Compute water stress – Use WaterGAP model and test indicators against crisis events • Compute susceptibility – Develop inference models from three disciplinary perspectives • Data collection • Top down (statistical data, 1980 – 2000) • Bottom up (limited surveys, late 1990s) • Three case study regions ...

  9. Case Study Regions Volga region Andhra Pradesh Southern Portugal

  10. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  11. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  12. Crisis:unstable or crucial time or state of affairs brought about by environmental stress; decisive undesirable change is impending/occurring, requires emergency measures.

  13. Identifying Drought Crisis Events • Media analysis -- “Factiva” media data base • (8000 media sources, local/regional/national) • Establish classes of “attributes” of crisis • Identify reliable local media • Tabulate recurrent (> 2 per month) reports of attributes

  14. Results of Media Analysis Example – Southern Portugal, 1983

  15. First Estimate – Drought Crisis Events A. Pradesh S. Portugal Volga Region 13/48

  16. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  17. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  18. Water Stress: Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995 Environmental stress: the intensity of environmental change that is (i) an undesirable departure, (ii) short duration.

  19. Water Stress: Withdrawal to Availability ratio 1995 • Is there a problem? • Are there thresholds? • If yes, where? Source: WaterGAP model, U.N. World Water Assessment Report

  20. Computing water stress – the WaterGAP model • WaterGAP ... • Global water use and availability model, • Computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge • Spatial resolution 0.5°, monthly temporal resolution. • Based on the best global data sets currently available • Uses “local” climate and socio-economic data to compute water availability and use in case study regions

  21. Testing the WaterGAP Model River Discharge of Volga at Volgograd (km3/a) Observed Computed

  22. Statistically significant indicators Water Stress Indicators --Test against occurrence of crisis events -- Statistical significance, t test (0.05) Not statistically significant indicators Water withdrawal to availability ratio Deviation of groundwater recharge from long time average Deviation of water availability from long time average Runoff deficit index Deviation of evapotranspiration from long time average MaxIndex Maximum function [withdrawal to availability ratio, deviation of water availability from long term average, and percentage of area with high water stress] Water withdrawal to internal availability ratio Annual groundwater recharge in mm Groundwater discharge per capita Water availability per capita Internal renewable water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (defined as withdrawal to availability ratio of 0.4 or more) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of precipitation from long time average

  23. Testing Water Stress Water stress (“MaxIndex”) vs. crisis data from three case study regions 1,0 0,8 Relative frequency of crises [number of crises / number of cases per category] 0,6 0,4 3 crises / 0 crises / 7 crises / 1 crises / 2 crises / 24 cases 4 cases 16 cases 2 cases 2 cases 0,2 0,0 0.0 - 0.2 >0.2 - 0.4 >0.4 - 0.6 >0.6 - 0.8 >0.8 - 1.0 Water Stress (Categories)

  24. First conclusions about crisis and stress Testing water stress – Data period and sample too small? Estimating crisis events – Reproducible? Definition of crisis?

  25. First conclusions about crisis and stress Are vulnerability estimates testable? Possible to identify independent variable for testing regional vulnerability indicators – “crisis event” • Is it possible to verify environmental stress estimates and thresholds? • Using crisis data, can determine statistical significance/insignificance of water stress indicators • Using crisis data, identify water stress threshold.

  26. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  27. Specific Research Questions • Crisis – How can crisis events be identified? • Environmental Stress – What measures of environmental stress best reflect society’s vulnerability to drought? • Susceptibility – How can susceptibility of society to drought be quantified, and how similar/different are different disciplinary perspectives?

  28. Susceptibility:the capability of an individual, community or state to resist and/or recover from crisis brought about by environmental stress.

  29. Quantifying Susceptibility • Objective: Quantify the estimation of susceptibility and compare differences between 3 disciplinary perspectives: • Environmental psychology • Economics • Political Science

  30. Procedure to Assess Susceptibility • Develop inference models: Adapt theory, select variables, • specify relationships between variables, select indicators • for variables. • 2. Quantify the models based on fuzzy set theory • Collect data for indicators: (top-down and bottom-up from case study regions: Southern Portugal, Volga region, Andhra Pradesh) • 4. Input data to model and compute susceptibility

  31. A New Approach to Assessing Vulnerability to Drought:Results from the Security Diagrams Project

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