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Proactive Structural China /Global Asset Prices Mechanism Simulation, Bubble Early Warning, Value Investing Operations Simulation Analysis 中國/國際貨幣政策入世宏觀調控產業資產價格泡沫預警模擬 QFII/QDII 價值投資風險管理策略

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Proactive Structural China /Global Asset Prices Mechanism Simulation, Bubble Early Warning, Value Investing Operations Simulation Analysis 中國/國際貨幣政策入世宏觀調控產業資產價格泡沫預警模擬QFII/QDII價值投資風險管理策略

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy, WTO Impact on China/ Global Macro-economic Control and Capital Market Asset Prices Bubble Earning Warning, Value Investing Simulation

By Dr Warren Huang, ( 黃華南博士) OSA pioneer 創辦人

網站 website: www.osawh.comwh3928@yahoo.com/

發表於中國經濟年會,上海復旦大學 2003年12月20日

Presented to China Economist Annual Meeting, Dec 20, 2003, Shanghai, China

lecture summary
Lecture Summary
  • 1. Proactive OSA challenges the unknown futures make your dream come true
  • 2. Two master hands controlling China/Global economy, capital asset prices
  • 3. Monetary policy, WTO impact on macro-economic, asset prices simulation.
  • 4. China/Global economic and capital market outlook OSA forecasts
  • 5. China /Global asset prices, bubble earning for banking, finance reform

A.Proactive Structural Causes, onset, recovery of China/global financial crisis, debt, equities, properties NPL assets, asset and mortgage securitization risk simulation and hedging.

B. Financial accounting tracking, earning warning for corporate governance scandals

C. Privatization, IPO/ ADR/ H stock listing M/A performance prices tracking OSA

  • 6. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Interest rates, bond, derivatives OSA
  • 7. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global stock indices futures, derivatives OSA
  • 8. Monetary policy, WTO impact on Global currency, RMB market forces mechanism, OSA
  • 9. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Housing prices, bubble earning warning
  • 10 Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global IT post bubble burst recovery OSA.
  • 11. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Oils upstream/Downstream performance
  • 12. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Commodity price futures, derivatives.
  • 13. Monetary policy, WTO impact on China/Global Commodity price futures, derivatives.
  • 14. Monetary policy, WTO impact on Henseng, Nikkei index OSA simulation charts
osa challenges the global unknown futures make your dream come true osa
OSA challenges the Global unknown futures, make your dream come trueOSA 挑戰未來美夢成真
  • Dr. Huang developed , implemented global strategic management for Mobil US board of directors dreams in global investment, value chain profit optimization
  • He inspired by Prof Nash turning numbers into equation wining the Nobel Prize.
  • Prof/Dr Huang extensive information knowledge base development Out of 1972 -1980 ( daily Wall Street Journals, Business Week trading data, market and economic analysts, technical analysis and Monte Carlo, statistical analysis fail to track economic cycles, market.
  • He trained thousands Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai, Fudan, Peking, Zechiang, Dalian University students, applied his Ph.D thesis Moon-landing guidance and control to challenge the unknown future in thousands structural dynamic models developed out of

12 years information knowledge base, He patented oil, downstream demand side price mechanism “ Improve Process by OSA” in US and 82 countries, 1980, pioneered two master hands controlling global economic cycles and capital market prices , through monetary policy tracking published thousands articles on Taiwan’s government, banking, finance, daily news papers, journal accurately tracking Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, US daily results since 1985 and supporting state enterprises, banking, finance strategic reform, change management, thousands CEO, executives training workshops challenging the unknown futures come true.

  • Dr Huang helping 30 million China, Taiwan investors, banking finance, enterprises

personal and corporate dream come true through thousands nationwide TV, radio lectures and banking, securities CEO, executives workshops since 1994 and www.osawh.com website (visited by 4 million global government, central banks, TOP banking, finance, enterprises executives , universities since 1998).

monetary policy wto impact on inflation china global gdp growth
Monetary policy, WTO impact on inflation,China/ global GDP growth 貨幣政策入關對中國宏觀調控影響
  • Excessive money supply, rising commodity, asset prices and weakening currency push inflation and GDP higher

export

Macro-economic inflation

and GDP growth

Consumer demand

Monetary policy

currency

Commodity prices

Business demand

Foreign direct investment

slide5
Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on China/global macro-economic control and daily capital market asset prices since 1989
  • Dr. Huang accurately predicted on Int’l economic conference in Shenzhen, 1988, that China will facing credit tightening in 1989-1990 to curb the inflation.
  • He accurately predicted in July 10, 1994 to Wall Street Journal and Wuhan Guotai, Wanguo CEO that Shangha A index will soared to 800 from 333 in Aug.1994.(WSJ published late July China B share rebound,
  • Shanghai A rebound to 820 in Aug-Oct, 1994)
  • He was invited by Wanguo, Guotai and banking CEO to offer lecture to thousands investors, traders, money manager predicted Shanghai A will be traded 600-800 during 1994-1996 due to macro-economic control, results published on Wuhan securities news Oct. 31, and Beijin Financial Times 1994
  • He accurately predicted in Wuhan stock information journal Feb. 1995 that Shanghai A will rebound from 540 to 800. It did on May 18 soared from 590 to 920 and plunged to 580 in three days, recommended buy Shanghai Petrochemical at one dollar soared to 8 in Aug.
  • He accurately predicted June 20, 1995 on Beijin Central Peoples radio one hour interview, and Financial Times, Economic Daily news, Commercial Times that Shanghai A will soar from 600 to 800 in Aug.1995.
  • Predicted on Wuhan securities news March 3, 1996, that China Peoples Bank will cut interest rate, stock market go to bull markets, Shanghai A break 1600.
  • Spoke to Shanghai Eastern radio and Shanghai stock exchange, Dec. 16, 1996

to predict Shanghai A will rebound from 1000 to 1700 in 1997 after 10 % price limit.

Predicted to Beijin Peoples Bank finance staff July 2001 that China stock bubble burst plunge to 1600 from 2200, Yunyue will plunge from 100 to 50, ST stocks down 50 %.

Predicted May 2003 on website that China housing, auto bubble burst, stocks will plunge 30-50 %, Shanghai A will plunge from 1650 to 1350, facing credit tightening May

proactive structural china global enterprises reform privatization mbo and ipo prices osa
Proactive Structural China/Global Enterprises reform, privatization MBO and IPO Prices OSA
  • Maximize corporate/plant wide operating profit margin through cost reduction and products, market innovation develop, implemented by goal, mission, performance oriented strategic (top management), and executive Operations Simulation Analysis teams
  • MBO/IPO prices =F (listed market investor sentiment,and corporate profit margin)

= F (Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin)

china global inflation interest rate government corporate bond yield simulation
China/Global Inflation, interest rate, government, corporate bond yield simulation
  • Asset, commodity prices, excessive money supply led to inflation, credit tightening

Led to rising interest rates and bond yields

currency

Consumer spending

Interest rates, bond yield

Inflation rates

Money supply growth

currency

oil,commodity,

asset prices

global currency and rmb market forces mechanism simulation
Global currency and RMB market forces mechanism simulation
  • WWW.osawh.com/currency.html tracking trade surplus/deficit, interest rate spread impact on daily 40 currencies and last 12 years RMB ( 3 to 12) since 1998

Integrating into Black-Schole for

derivatives prices hedging

US trade deficit

Daily US dollar, RMB

global exchange rates futures prices

your country trade surplus/deficit

Interest rate spread between US and yours

china global housing prices bubbles wealth mechanism simulation
China/Global Housing prices, bubbles,wealth mechanism simulation

Housing prices are fueled by money supply, excessive credit, stock markets wealth gain

Housing prices bubble, wealth

Housing stock prices simulation

Money supply growth

Mortgage interest rate

Stock market wealth

Stock index changes

MBS credit

derivatives

proactive structural asian stock indices prices futures and trading volume simulation
Proactive, Structural Asian Stock indices prices futures and trading volume simulation
  • www.osawh.com/prod03.html tracking 40 stock indices, wealth, prices are generated from money supply, lower interest rates and stock price, wealth gain, hot money inflow, US investor sentiments

Integrate into Black-Schole

For derivatives prices, hedging

Money supply growth

Consumer spending

China Shanghai/Shenzhen, A, B, Henseng,

H-Share,Nikkei, Taiwan Index, Singapore ST

H stock index, Seoul futures, Investor

sentiment , trading volume

Interest rate/inflation rate

currency

US investor sentiment

NY Dow Jones/Nasdaq stock index

proactive structural china global information industry post bubble burst recovery simulation
Proactive, Structural China/Global Information industry post bubble burst recovery simulation
  • IT industries benefited by consumer, business spending rebound, but hurt by price war due to excessive capacity, but China IT and high tech hardware and software suffered by sharp foreign competition

IT industry business spending

IT industry chips, PC,

telecommunication

Demand and spot prices , profit

margin, stock prices, derivatives

Consumer spending

IT industry excess capacity and

Products, market innovation

proactive structural china global auto and steel demand prices mechanism simulation
Proactive, Structural China/Global Auto and steel demand, prices mechanism simulation
  • China auto, steel, facing credit tightening ( will feel full impact early next year) and sharp price war competition among GM, Ford, Toyota, Benz and partners, drag auto, steel demand and prices, profits, stock prices.

Consumer spending

Auto demand , utility Asset Backed

Securitization , stock

prices mechanism simulation

Auto loan interest rate

Steel prices, import duty, energy prices

proactive structural china global oil petrochemicals demand prices performance mechanism simulation
Proactive, structural China / Global Oil petrochemicals demand, prices performance mechanism simulation
  • China oil upstream/downstream are well positioned, fully integrated follow Dr. Huang1991 speech to SINOPEC, Beijin on globalization, integration strategy
  • CNOOC, SINOPEC, PetroChina stock prices doubled , but downstream suffered by soaring oil prices)since Dr. Huang recommendation in Beijin workshops 2001, Taipei, 2002

Consumer spending

Oils, heating oil, gasoline ,

petrochemical, plastics prices

Profit margin, stocks simulation

Currency

Gasoline, heating oil, petrochemical feedstock

Prices, costs

reform and merger acquisition performance simulation
Reform and merger/acquisition performance simulation
  • Stock prices plunged more than 50-90 % gained in pre-merger speculation due to post merger integration performances,

Pre and post merger profit margin

and stock

Prices simulation

Pre-merger, reform goal setting targeting

Post merger profit margin

Investor sentiments

Post merger integration performance

proactive structural china global corporate governance bubble burst early warning simulation
Proactive Structural China/Global Corporate governance bubble burst early warning simulation
  • Tracking cost and financial accounting and investors sentiment speculation bubbles for scandals early warning in China Guanxia, ST stocks

Production and sales tracking

Cost accounting bubble tracking

Strategic and execution corporate

governance OSA teams tracking

financial accounting

stock prices

financial accounting earning tracking

Balance sheet and off-balance sheet

Derivatives, IPO, merger activities tracking

Investor sentiments, stock index

slide16
Proactive, structural China/Global Banking Securities insurance Basel II risks early warning simulation
  • China/Global assets bubbles, Basel II riskstracking, early warning for government regulation

Equities market asset

Bubble price

Banking nonperformance credit default

Consumer, business credit, market risks

Resulted market bubble burst risks simulation

Housing market asset

Prices bubble

Industrial sectors

Asset bubbles

Business, consumer demand

Sentiment bubble

slide17

Causes, onset, spread recovery early warning of China/Global of housing, credit, financial , currency energy banking, bubble burst crisis and NPL loan

  • Excessive money supply and hot money inflow resulted inflation, currency
  • plunge, rate hike and stocks, properties prices plunge and NPL loan

Excess money supply

Consumer spending

Strong Export growth

All leading to financial, currency, bubble burst

Crisis, recovery will begin until trade surplus

And currency rebound, interest rate cuts, stock prices

rebound www.osawh.com/riskm.html

Excess foreign capital

Inflow resulted currency appreciation

Runaway inflation and interest rate hike

Stock prices and consumer demand plunge

Export decline and currency plunge

NPL Loan

proactive structural strategic china global qfii and qdii investment risk management early warning
Proactive, structural strategic China/global QFII and QDII investment risk management early warning
  • Twomaster hands controlling China and global economy and industrial sectors profitability and stock prices for QFII/QDII asset allocation, wealth management investment strategy, risk control avoid chasing the markets trillion dollars loss

Domestic and global market prices

And risks simulation

Money supply, interest rates

Currency exchange rates

Investors sentiments

Industrial sectors asset prices

bubble, profit margin simulation

china global economic and capital market outlook opportunities challenges
China/Global economic and capital market outlook, opportunities, challenges
  • China economy benefited by 56 billion DFI and 30 % growth in export, 345 billion foreign reserve, facing uneven development, widening wealth gap between rich coastal region and rural poor, excessive loan demand in auto, steel, housing (24 % growth) and falling manufacturing prices, forced China Peoples Bank raised bank reserve ratio to 7 %, cut 150 billion from loan
  • RMB facing appreciation pressure, will be gradually switch to managed float in the future, coastal area benefit by DFI facing housing bubbledemand and price will peaking out, while rural house stop decline
  • Consumer and business spending will be slowed down with money supply peaking out at 21 % to 18 %, to cool asset bubbles, resulted inflation
  • IT and industry benefited by US, Asian demand and prices rebound, however facing severe competition
  • Auto industry benefited by domestic demand, will slowdownfacing price war, tariff cut, sharp competition among GM, BENZ, Toyota and Ford
  • Banking sector still facing mounting nonperformance loan and credit tightening
  • Oil/petrochemicals, transportation sectors hurt by soaring oil prices, benefited by increased demand and prices rebound, profit margin
  • Shanghai, Shenzhen stocks will be traded in 20 % range 1250-1550
hong kong economy capital market outlook challenges opportunities
Hong Kong Economy, Capital Market outlook, challenges, opportunities
  • Hong Kong is recovery from SARS and export slump, getting out on recession, but still in deflation, due to China opening tourists to Hong Kong and free trade zone and US economic recovery, getting out of SARS threat resulted hot money speculation on stock market rebound 50 % led to money supply growth and GDP creeping up to 2.5 %
  • However consumer, retail and housing, construction is still weak drag by high unemployment at 8.5 %
  • Banking sectors benefited by expanding tourist, stock market rebound, but still weak consumer load demand due to high unemployment
  • Properties, construction sectors demand is weak, despite recover from SARS housing prices down 70 % return to 1991 level, with no sign in near term rebound
  • Manufacturing sector facing high oil, feedstock prices, falling prices, fail to compete with China competition Benefited by increased demand and prices rebound, profit margin
  • Henseng index will be benefited by improved US, Asian recovery , export
  • Boost , but hurt by peaking out China demand resulted money supply growth expansion to 3. 5 % and US stock market Dow moving above 10,000, However, export growth is limited
  • Henseng index is overheated, will be traded 10,000-14,500 next year
conclusions and recommendations
Conclusions and recommendations
  • OSA simulators predicted 6 month ahead the China/global monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on macro-economic, capital market asset prices to achieve sustainable profit growth and prices stability
  • Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China/global capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning is the key to sustainable profit growth supporting strategic China/global banking, finance, enterprises reform.
  • Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China/global capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current betting on the wrong side of investment,
  • Chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide China/global QFII, QDII rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asset allocation, wealth management
  • Thousand strategic structural dynamic OSA models tracking China and global economic and daily capital market asset prices supporting China and global capital market decision makers through in-house workshops, corporate memberships and full banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management OSA program
tokyo nikkei stock index future simulation
Tokyo Nikkei Stock index futureSimulation
  • Monetary policy and US economy impact on Japan Nikkei index

Daily Yen exchange rate

Yen

conclutions and recommendation
Conclutions and Recommendation
  • OSA simulators predicted 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on macro-economic control, capital market asset prices to achieve sustainable profit growth and prices stability
  • Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning is the key to sustainable profit growth supporting strategic China banking, finance, enterprises reform.
  • Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current
  • Chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide QFII, QDII rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asset allocation, wealth management
  • Thousand strategic structural dynamic OSA models tracking China and global economic and daily capital market asset prices supporting China and global capital market decision makers through in-house workshops, corporate memberships and full banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management OSA program