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Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe. Mxolisi E. Shongwe, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Caio A. S. Coelho and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. Outline. GCM skill in predicting MAM 2-m temperature in Europe Snow – 2-m temperature relationships Model representation of observed snow Summary.
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Predictability of cold spring seasons in Europe Mxolisi E. Shongwe, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Caio A. S. Coelho and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Outline • GCM skill in predicting MAM 2-m temperature in Europe • Snow – 2-m temperature relationships • Model representation of observed snow • Summary
Models • GCMs: Feb 1 analysis time (available Feb 15), Mar-May verification (mainly March) • Statistical model: Nov-Jan T2m, Feb 1 snow depth, ONC
Highlights • GCMs show good skill in predicting 2-m temperature in Central and Eastern Europe • Higher skill for cold `extremes’ • Skill surpasses that of statistical model based on persistence and snow depth
No skill in SLP Maps directly from Climate Explorer climexp.knmi.nl
2-m temperature –Snow relationship Coldest 2-m temperature related to widespread snow in eastern Europe
Highlights • There is evidence of a lag relationship between snow and 2-m temperature in eastern Europe • Related to snow-hydrological and snow-energy effects.
Conclusion • There is potential to predict cold spring seasons in Europe, which is tied to accurate representation of snow processes in climate models.
THE END Thank you for your attention!