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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?. THE WAR ON TERROR. U.S.-imposed rules of the game Ideological divisions: left, right, center Prevalence of democratic discourse Focus on “strategic options” Dubious alternatives: Bolivarian dream of collective unity Rule of international law, organizations.

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

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  1. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

  2. THE WAR ON TERROR • U.S.-imposed rules of the game • Ideological divisions: left, right, center • Prevalence of democratic discourse • Focus on “strategic options” • Dubious alternatives: • Bolivarian dream of collective unity • Rule of international law, organizations

  3. 1. TURN TO THE NORTH • Vicente Fox (Mexico) • Hopes for immigration reform • NAFTA constraints • Opposition throughout Latin America • Comrades in the War on Terror • Colombia • Guatemala • The FTA Club • Chile [special case] • Central America + DR • Peru • Colombia?

  4. 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY • Brazil (Lula) • Grandeza brasileira • Role in Haiti • Resistance to FTAA • Venezuela (Chávez) • ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas) • International assistance programs • Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries • Denunciations of Bush and USA • Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

  5. 3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS? • Cuba (Castros) • Armed rebellion no longer a path • Fatigue of revolutionary society • Institutionalization of charisma • Venezuela (Chávez) • “Socialism for the 21st Century” • Linkage to Cuba and Fidel • Bolivia (Morales) • Indigenismo • Politics of ethnic reivindicación

  6. 4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY • Brazil (Lula) • WTO • Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21) • G4 (re UN Security Council), BRIC • Venezuela (Chávez) • Non-Aligned Movement • UN Security Council • Petroleum exporters

  7. 5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE • Europe • Divisions over Iraq • Concern about EU future • FTAs with Mexico, Chile • Distancing from/by Spain • Asia • Withdrawal of Japan • Eruption of “China fever” • PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba

  8. IS LATIN AMERICA BREAKING AWAY?

  9. ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS • Exports to China, 2008: • Argentina 9.0% • Brazil 12.4% • Chile 4.8% • Mexico 0.7% • Cuba 18.4% • Liberation from IMF: • Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn) • Brazil 2005 ($15.5 bn) • IMF “relegated to sidelines”

  10. POLITICAL DIMENSIONS • Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies • Emergence of “new Left” • Resuscitation of Cuba • Regional organizations w/o USA: • Rio Group (1986, 23 members) • Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members) • CELAC (2010, 33 members) • Other: Ibero-American Summits (1991), UNASUR (2005) • MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus) • UNASUR (2005) • Mega-summits (2008, 33 members)

  11. BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS • Argentina: “a distant relationship” • Brazil: “getting better all the time” • Chile: “cooperative friendship” • Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

  12. POSSIBLE DISTINCTIONS • Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean • Political A: Right vs. Left • Political B: Moderate vs. Radical • U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?

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