Climate Change, Climate Variability & Plans to enhance NOAA climate services

1. Climate Change, Climate Variability & Plans to enhance NOAA climate services Robert Webb Chief, Climate Analysis Branch NOAA OAR Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado Climate Change Workshop 2009 USACE Infrastructure Conference July 22, 2009

2. The nation has made progress in understanding climate variability and change

3. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States • How has climate already changed? • How is it likely to change in the future? • How is climate change affecting us now where we live and work? • How is it likely to affect us in the future? • What are options for responding?

4. This report provides information • to make good decisions at the national, regional, and local levels to avoid already occurring impacts • to better understand the consequences of our decisions about emissions as well as adaptation

5. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced • Human fingerprints have been identified in many aspects of climate change • Temperature • Precipitation • Ocean heat content • Atmospheric moisture • Arctic sea ice Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation 800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate

6. Temperatures will continue to rise − how much depends on the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere Global Average Temperature, 1900 to 2100

7. Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow • Temperature rise • Sea-level rise • Earlier snowmelt • Changes in river flows • Rapidly retreating glaciers • Thawing permafrost • Longer growing season • Increase in heavy downpours • Longer ice-free season in the ocean, on lakes, and on rivers

8. Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects. Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-99 Recent Past, 1961-1979 Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-99 Number of Days Over 100ºF

9. Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity(2080-2099) Hydroclimatic changes are underway in the U.S. and are expected to increase Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation(1958 to 2007)

10. Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-2099 Water resource changes are underway and will be affected by changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures • Confidence in precipitation projections lower than for temperature • Good confidence in overall pattern (wet north vs dry south) • Less confidence in exact location of transition Winter Spring Summer Fall

11. Climate change will stress water resources Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Pattern In snowmelt-dominated streams, runoff peak will shift to earlier in the spring and late summer flows will be lower. • Less snow, more rain • Wet areas get wetter – floods • Dry areas get drier – drought • Declines in mountain snowpack • Increased competition for water

12. Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from sea-level rise and storm surge Areas in Florida under water with 3 foot sea level rise Projected Sea-Level Rise Gulf Coast Roads at Risk from Sea-Level Rise

13. Land Lost During 2005 Hurricanes Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge Chandeleur Islands, east of New Orleans, before and after the 2005 hurricanes 217 square miles, 85% of the island’s land mass was lost

14. Response Strategies “Mitigation” – reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere “Adaptation” – improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions Both will be needed.

15. Adaptation Example Responding to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge • Elevate roads, buildings, and facilities • Improve flood control structure design • Build hard structures such as levees and dikes (although this can actually increase future risks by destroying wetlands and also by creating a false sense of security that causes more development in vulnerable areas) • Enhance wetlands • Accommodate inland movement through planned retreat • Require setbacks for construction • Improve evacuation planning

16. Adaptation Example Climate-Proofing a Road • Completion of perimeter road on US-affiliated island altered in response to projected climate change • Road placed higher to account for sea-level rise • Improved drainage system installed to handle heavier rainfall • Accumulated costs, including capital costs and repairs and maintenance show the alterations to be cost effective

17. Impacts Are Why Climate Matters Air Quality Ocean Life & Ecosystems Sustainable Food Coastal Inundation Water Weather (Extreme Events) Security And Many Others It’s the impacts stupid

18. Thus, our nation needs a climate service …that will serve and provide authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation’s citizens in making climate-related decisions that enhance their lives and livelihoods. “Decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.” – Western Governor Association statement to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 3, 2007

19. The National Climate Service Partnership- no single agency can address the climate challenge on its own Research, Modeling & Assessments Observations/Monitoring National Climate Service Adaptation & Mitigation Resource Risk Management

20. National Climate ServiceCongressional Interest • HR 2454 – Sec. 452/Interagency • OSTP-led process; initiate within 30 days • Plan in two years; establish an NCS in three years • HR 2454—Sec. 452/NOAA • Establish Climate Service Office • Network of regional and local partnerships • Utilize assets of all NOAA programs & partners • Senate • Six Committees to act by end of Sept. 09 • Commerce Committee hearing late July

21. NOAA's contribution: Building on a strong foundation • Unique breadth of mandates and responsibilities for managing coastal and marine ecosystems, and resources and communities • A long history of building sustained partnerships with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government, NGOs and the public • A commitment to and demonstrated leadership in the science underpinning a service including: observing; data management and delivery; problem focused and fundamental climate research; climate modeling, predictions and projections; and local, regional, national and international assessments 21

22. Some Important Attributes • Provide predictions and projections of climate at scales relevant to decision support • Provide balanced, credible, cutting edge scientific and technical information • Engage a diversity of users in meaningful ways to ensure their needs are being met • Strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship • Link human-caused climate change and changes in natural variability to meet user needs • Improve regional and local projections of climate change • Inform policy options, decisions and management options of others • Provide and contribute to science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks • Foster climate literacy and workforce development • Ensure timely assessments

23. Climate Service Case Study:Coastal Regions • Solution and problem focused: • Sea level • Precipitation patterns and associated effects on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow • Ocean temperature • Circulation patterns • Frequency, track and intensity of storms • Atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification 23

24. Climate Service Case Study:Water • Problem and People focused: • Drought • Floods • Changes in snowpack (quantity and timing) • River stream flow • Fire outlooks • Physical Infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, delivery systems) • Planning (urban, agriculture, health) 24

25. Next steps… An interactive process that engages federal agencies, states, partner institutions and individuals from across the spectrum of climate research, service provision, users, partners and stakeholders. A critical issue that must be addressed in these processes is the best arrangement for federal agencies to work in partnership to maximize delivery of climate services to the nation. NOAA looks forward to engaging in these dialogues.