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Brad Templeton Chicken, Chicken (& Foresight Institute) ‏ bradt@eff.org. Robot Cars and where they can take us. Robocars are coming. No longer Science Fiction A question of when, not if The overwhelming arguments for them Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe

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brad templeton chicken chicken foresight institute bradt@eff org
Brad Templeton

Chicken, Chicken

(& Foresight Institute)‏

bradt@eff.org

Robot Cars and where they can take us
robocars are coming
Robocars are coming
  • No longer Science Fiction
  • A question of when, not if
  • The overwhelming arguments for them
  • Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe
  • The implications for mass transit
they re coming
They're coming
  • DARPA Grand Challenge #1: Total failure
  • DARPA Grand Challenge #2: Five cars
  • Urban Challenge – 3 winners
  • Videos
  • Autonomous, not centrally controlled
arguments for it

Arguments For it

Death toll, Death toll, Death toll

And don’t forget the maiming!

Geeks can save the planet

accidents
Accidents
  • Kill 45,000 in USA, 1M worldwide, injure far more
  • Cost 230 billion dollars (over 2% of GDP)
  • Every year we delay, another million die.
congestion
Congestion
  • Congestion wastes 4 to 8 billion hours, 6 billion gallons
  • Just timed lights improves city gas mileage 30%
  • Hours spent driving -- 50 billion, 10% of total working hours, 5% of waking
infrastructure
Infrastructure
  • Parking
  • Real Estate
  • Environment -- 25% of greenhouse gasses
self delivery

Self Delivery

Almost as important as self-driving

the robotaxi

The Robotaxi

And the WhistleCar

cell phone summoned

Cell phone summoned

If what you need isn't close, something that is close takes you to it

right vehicle

Right Vehicle

10-mile electric trike to pickup truck to van to SUV to bus

private cars for hire
Private cars for hire
  • Custom memory for your preferences
  • Your box of stuff, robot loaded
parks itself charges or refuels itself
Parks itself, Charges or refuels itself
  • Parks more effeciently, even in driveways
  • Solves the battery problem
  • Allows experimental fuels with vastly less infrastructure
special features
Special features
  • Gentle acceleration, constant speed
  • Gimbaled turns
  • Super-soft suspension
infrastructure already in place

Infrastructure already in place

(compare with PRT or other private ROWs)

the private individuals pay for it
The private individuals pay for it
  • No hugely expensive ROW needed
  • Already more capacity than needed
almost every advantage transit has

Almost every advantage transit has

…including one it doesn’t

actually have

greener
Greener
  • Cars: 3500 btu/passenger-mile
  • Bus: Also 3500. Trolleybus: 3200
  • Light rail: 1500 to 7000
  • Heavy Rail: 2200 to 6000. NYC: 3300
  • Electric Car: 500-700
  • Lightweight electric trike: 300
  • Cyclist: 145. Beefeater - about 6,000.
  • Pedestrian: 300. Beefeater - about 12,000
more advantages
More advantages
  • No parking
  • No congestion
  • Read/Work
  • Don't need licence
  • Don't need to own a car
  • Cheap
  • Safer from accidents
self parking car

Self parking car

Lexus LS460-L

bmw 5 and 7 auto spacing cruise control

BMW 5 and 7Auto-spacing cruise control

Audi, Volvo S80 Lane change warning

Infiniti Lane departure prevention

Mercedes Pre-Safe applies brakes before accident. Lexus pre-collision similar

accident avoiding car

Accident-avoiding car

(somewhat negates death toll.)

time for apollo project
Time for Apollo Project
  • A major leader, somewhere, must declare the charge.
  • Do it not because it’s easy but because it’s hard
  • May well happen in Japan, India or China first
all i have time for but
All I have time for, but
  • Barriers
  • Downsides
  • Engineering Changes
  • Deliverbots
  • http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
barriers
Barriers
  • Law
  • Fear
  • Liability
  • Terrorists
  • Technology
  • Software reliability
downsides
Downsides
  • Health
  • Restructuring of cities, less walking
  • People taking longer trips, empty trips
  • Computer Intrusion and Mass Failure
  • Reworking of car culture
  • Privacy
  • Freedom
  • Jobs
engineering changes
Engineering Changes
  • Range not a factor
  • Acceleration and speed not a factor
  • Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.
  • Want to be sharable
  • Different safety constraints
  • Small width, face-to-face
deliverbots
Deliverbots
  • In military, then on back streets
  • No need to own expensive, rarely used goods
  • Vast alteration of the nature of retail
  • Also changes, airports, farms etc.