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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Marine Services

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Marine Services Jeff Savadel NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Outline Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary Marine Services Team Composition

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Marine Services

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Marine Services Jeff Savadel NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Marine ServicesTeam Composition • Jeff Savadel - NWS/OST • Therese Pierce - NWS/OCWWS • Marty Ralph - OAR/ETL • James Partain - NWS/NCEP • Tom Ainsworth - NWS/WR • Andy Patrick - NWS/SR • Greg Mann – NWS/CR • C-S Wu - NWS/OST • Wendell Nuss - Naval Postgraduate School • Larry Burroughs - NWS/NCEP • Richard May - NWS/OCCWS

  4. Marine ServicesVision / Benefits Vision Forecast Accuracy for Winds and Waves of 75% at 10 Days • Reduce Storm-Related Mariner Losses by 25% • Expected Savings of $700M/Year (Heinz Center Report) • Expected Savings $30M/Year – Gulf of Maine Study (2002)

  5. Low Risk High Risk On Track Marine ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12 * Realistic goal as set by team

  6. Marine ServicesKey Information Gaps • More Atmospheric and Oceanic Observations – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (i.e. Large Data Voids) • More Accurate 3D Picture of Atmosphere – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (No Observations in Vertical) • Improve Model Resolution and Physics • More Training/Decision Support Systems

  7. Marine ServicesKey S&T Solutions

  8. Marine Services Key S&T Solutions Expand Buoy Network / Coastal Profilers * Deployment Observations Buoy Profilers OTE METOP- ASCAT 12km SSM/I + SSMIS NPP - NPOESS DTE ADEOS2 8 km WRF * R&D 45 km GFS DA/NWP 10 km Wave Model Coupled Land/Ocean/Atm GODAS Coupled Ocean/Atm/Ice * SAFESEAS Applications Marine PDS Training 01 02 05 06 07 08 04 10 09 11 12 03

  9. Marine ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs • Continue Development and Evaluation of New Observing Systems • Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer • Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones • Develop Methods to Deliver Marine Info (Text and Graphics) to All Mariners • Develop Coastal Flood Model

  10. Marine ServicesSummary Vision 75% Wind and Wave Accuracy • R&D Needs • Develop New Observing Systems • Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer • Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones • Develop Advanced Dissemination Methods • Develop Coastal Flood Model Increasing Performance • Improve Coupling of Ocean/Atm Model • Improve Decision Support Systems • Improve Remote Sensing Capabilities • Improve Ocean/Atm Model Resolution and Physics • Increase 3D Coastal and Ocean Obs. Continuous Training / Regional Workshops 2002 2007 2012 2020

  11. Back-up Information

  12. Primary Customers/Partners • General Public • Professional mariners • National Ocean Service • U.S. Navy • U.S. Coast Guard • Maritime Administration • Corps of Engineers • Dept. of Defense • Federal Management Agency • U.S. Geological Survey • American Red Cross • World Meteorological Organization

  13. Key Products/Services • Data • buoy, C-MAN, ship observations, Ice observations • Forecasts • coastal waters, nearshore, recreational, bay and coastal marine, surf, open lake, ice, Alaska bay and coastal • high seas, offshore, navtex, extratropical storm surge • Warnings • special marine, marine weather statements, lakeshore, coastal flood • Tsunami

  14. Marine ServicesWind Accuracy

  15. Marine ServicesWave Accuracy

  16. Marine ServicesWind Warning Accuracy

  17. Marine ServicesWind Warning Accuracy

  18. Marine ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12 On Track Low Risk High Risk Discontinue

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