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Assessing your Market Alan Gleeson Managing Director Palo Alto Software Ltd
What you will learn today How to generate an Idea How to understand your Market How to estimate the size of your Market The numbers that are Important Some Key Tips for a winning Business Plan
Product or Service Key Features Key Benefits Evidence of demand Knowledge re Substitutes and Competition Commercially Viable Segments Access to the market and access to the segments
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Estimating the Size of your Market Top Down Approach UK Population 60,776,238 (July 2007 est.) Age structure: 0-14 years: 17.7% (male 5,490,592/female 5,229,691) 15-64 years: 66.5% (male 20,329,272/female 19,855,862) 65 years and over: 15.8% (male 4,063,357/female 5,472,683) (2005 est.) What is the target demographic profile for my good / service? Location/Age/Sex/ Income Level/Nationality etc
Estimating the Size of your Market 1% of Market
Estimating the Size of your Market Bottom up Approach Current sales level estimates Sales levels of competitors/ substitutes etc Extrapolate from a sample Is the market growing or shrinking?
Step 1: Acorn 2 Urban Prosperity E Educated Urbanites 18 Multi-ethnic young, converted flats
Millennium Dome Year 1 Estimate Visitor Numbers ??m
Top 10 attractions in the UK in 1999 1. Alton Towers 2.65m 2. Madame Tussaud's 2.64m 3. Tower of London 2.42m 4. Natural History Museum 5. Legoland 1.62m 6. Chessington World of Adventures 7. Science Museum 8. Royal Academy 1.39m 9. Canterbury Cathedral 10. Windsor Castle
Millennium Dome 31 December 2000 : Dome closed to the public, having attracted just over six million visitors. The initial projected figure was twelve million.
The Key Numbers to focus on 1. Monthly Revenue Predictions: Numbers * Amount. 2. Monthly costs Fixed and Variable 3. Break Even Point: Fixed Costs ÷ Contribution Where the contribution represents the selling price - variable costs. 4. Free Cash Flows:Cash not required for operations or for reinvestment. 5. Growth Levels: Is the market growing or declining? This one is key for banks
A Winning Business Plan • Evidence that a market exists (there is a need/ problem) • Evidence that you can meet the needs of the market (a solution) • Evidence that you can do so profitably • Evidence that you can access the market • Evidence that you have the skills to manage the business • Evidence that the company can generate strong free cash flows
Assessing your Market Alan Gleeson www.bplans.co.uk www.paloalto.co.uk