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  1. Climate Change Basics AP Environmental Science January 2009

  2. Energy from the sun in many wavelengths Sun High energy, short wavelength Low energy, long wavelength Nonionizing radiation Ionizing radiation Cosmic rays Gamma rays X rays Far ultraviolet waves Near ultraviolet waves Visiblewaves Near infrared waves Far infrared waves Microwaves TV waves Radio waves 10-14 10-12 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 Wavelength in meters (not to scale)

  3. Figure 3-10Page 45 15 10 Energy emitted from sun (Kcal/cm2/min) Energy from the sun Visible 5 Infrared Ultraviolet 0 0.25 1 2 2.5 3 Wavelength (micrometers)

  4. Energy balance

  5. Energy moves from equator to poles

  6. Figure 21-2aPage 463 Average temperature over past 900,000 years 17 16 15 14 Average surface temperature (°C) 13 12 11 10 9 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Present Thousands of years ago Milankovitch cycles

  7. Figure 21-2bPage 463 Agriculture established Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15°C (59°F) Temperature change over past 22,000 years 2 1 0 -1 End of last ice age Temperature change (°C) -2 -3 -4 What is average? -5 20,000 10,000 2,000 1,000 200 100 Now Years ago

  8. From the Long Summer.

  9. From the Long Summer Impact of beaver fur trade on climate?

  10. Figure 21-2cPage 463 1.0 Little ice age - the most recent significant RCCE 0.5 0.0 Temperature change (°C) -0.5 -1.0 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2101 Year Temperature change over past 1,000 years

  11. http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

  12. Figure 21-2dPage 463 Average temperature over past 130 years 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 Average surface temperature (°C) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year

  13. Physical and Biological indicators of climate change.

  14. Sources of tables for global warming potentials http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/samson/global_warming_potential/

  15. Table 21-1Page 464 Table 21-1 Major Greenhouse Gases from Human Activities Greenhouse Gas Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)* Hydrochloro- fluorocarbons (HCFCs) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Halons Carbon tetrachloride Human Sources Fossil fuel burning, especially coal (70–75%), deforestation, and plant burning Rice paddies, guts of cattle and termites, landfills, coal production, coal seams, and natural gas leaks from oil and gas production and pipelines Fossil fuel burning, fertilizers, livestock wastes, and nylon production Air conditioners, refrigerators, plastic foams Air conditioners, refrigerators, plastic foams Air conditioners, refrigerators, plastic foams Fire extinguishers Cleaning solvent Average Time in the Troposphere 100–120 years 12–18 years 114–120 years 11–20 years (65–110 years in stratosphere) 9–390 15–390 65 42 Relative Warming Potential (compared to CO2) 1 23 296 900–8,300 470–2,000 130–12,700 5,500 1,400

  16. sources Sources of GHGs 1970 -2004

  17. Natural vs Anthropogenic

  18. Figure 21-4Page 465 380 360 340 320 300 Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (ppm) 280 Carbon dioxide 260 240 +2.5 220 0 200 Variation of temperature (˚C) from current level –2.5 180 –5.0 –7.5 Temperature change –10.0 End of last ice age 160 120 80 40 0 Thousands of years before present

  19. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/graphics/c_cycle.htm

  20. Concentrations of principal anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the industrial era [Hansen et al., 1998; Hansen and Sato, 1999]. Black curves denote measurements of in situ atmospheric samples collected in recent years [NOAA, 1999a, b, c; Houghton et al., 1995]. Points denote concentrations determined from air bubbles trapped in polar ice sheets using ice cores obtained in Antarctica (blue) or Greenland (yellow); red curves denote fits to these points [Etheridge et al., 1996, 1998; Machida et al., 1995]. Data for CFCs are from in situ samples since 1977 [NOAA, 1999d]. Mixing ratios of CFC-11 and CFC-12 prior to the first in situ atmospheric measurements were estimated from industrial production data and assumed atmospheric lifetimes of 50 and 100 years, respectively [AFEAS, 1993; Hansen et al., 1998; Hansen and Sato, 1999]. http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/99148e.html

  21. Carbon dioxide concentration (top), proxy temperature (middle), and methane concentration from analyses of ice cores from Vostok, Antarctica [Jouzel et al., 1993] http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/99148e.html

  22. http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

  23. The importance of Albedo and tipping points. Figure 21-6Page 467

  24. Figure 21-7Page 468 Clouds 50–55% Snow 80–90% City 10–15% Forest 5% Albedo from various surfaces Grass 15–25% Bare sand 30–60% Oceans 5%

  25. Figure 21-12Page 472 Greenland Greenland Antarctica hot planet cold comfort

  26. Troposphere Cooling from increase CO2 removal by plants and soil organisms CO2 emissions from land cleaning, fires, and decay Warming from decrease Aerosols Heat and CO2 removal Heat and CO2 emissions Greenhouse gases Ice and snow cover Shallow ocean Land and soil biotoa Long-term storage Natural and human emissions Deep ocean Figure 21-9Page 470

  27. Figure 21-10Page 471 Cell Clouds Land Ocean Modeling of atmospheric processes is in 3 dimensions

  28. Predicted temperature changes are dramatic!

  29. Agriculture Water Resources Forests Figure 21-13Page 475 • Changes in water supply • Decreased water quality • Increased drought • Increased flooding • Snowpack reduction • Melting of mountaintop glaciers • Changes in forest composition and locations • Disappearance of some forests, especially ones at high elevations • Increased fires from drying • Loss of wildlife habitat and species • Shifts in food-growing areas • Changes in crop yields • Increased irrigation demands • Increased pests, crop diseases, and weeds in warmer areas Biodiversity Sea Level and Coastal Areas • Rising sea levels • Flooding of low-lying islands and coastal cities • Flooding of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs • Beach erosion • Disruption of coastal fisheries • Contamination of coastal aquifiers with salt water • Extinction of some plant and animal species • Loss of habitats • Disruption of aquatic life Weather Extremes Human Health • Decreased deaths from cold weather • Increased deaths from heat and disease • Disruption of food and water supplies • Spread of tropical diseases to temperate areas • Increased respiratory disease and pollen allergies • Increased water pollution from coastal flooding • Increased formation of photochemical smog Human Population • Prolonged heat waves and droughts • Increased flooding from more frequent, intense, and heavy rainfall in some areas • Increased deaths from heat and disruption of food supplies • More environmental refugees • Increased migration

  30. Spreading disease Coral reef bleaching Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Glaciers melting Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Sea level rise and coastal flooding Arctic and Antarctic warming Droughts and fires GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs http://www.climatehotmap.org/ Fingerprints and Harbingers

  31. climate hot map

  32. Glaciers in Glacier National Park are expected to disappear in our lifetimes.

  33. Golden toads have disappeared from the Monteverde Cloud forest.

  34. Present range Future range Overlap Figure 21-15Page 476

  35. Speciation changes due to warming are becoming apparent.

  36. Figure 21-8Page 468 Last warm period Today’s sea level 0 0 Height above or below present sea level (feet) Height above or below present sea level (meters) –130 –426 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Years before present Present

  37. 100 90 80 70 High Projection Shanghai, New Orleans, and other low-lying cities largely underwater 60 Mean Sea-Level Rises (centimeters) 50 40 30 Medium Projection More than a third of U.S. wetlands underwater 20 10 Low Projection 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Figure 21-16Page 477 Year

  38. Figure 21-14Page 475 • Less severe winters • More precipitation in some dry areas • Less precipitation in some wet areas • Increased food production in some areas • Expanded population and range for some plant and animal species adapted to higher temperatures

  39. Solutions Global Warming Prevention Cleanup Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal) Remove CO2 from smokestack and vehicle emissions Shift from coal to natural gas Store (sequester) CO2 by planting trees Improve energy efficiency Shift to renewable energy resources Sequester CO2 deep underground Transfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countries Sequester CO2 in soil by using no-till cultivation and taking crop land out of production Reduce deforestation Sequester CO2 in the deep ocean Use more sustainable agriculture Repair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilities Limit urban sprawl Reduce poverty Use feeds that reduce CH4 emissions by belching cows Slow population growth Figure 21-17Page 479

  40. Figure 21-18Page 480 Coal power plant Tanker delivers CO2 from plant to rig Oil rig Tree plantation CO2 is pumped down from rig for deep ocean disposal Abandoned oil field Crop field Switchgrass CO2 is pumped down to reservoir through abandoned oil field Spent oil reservoir is used for CO2 deposit = CO2 deposit = CO2 pumping

  41. What Can You Do? Reducing CO2 Emissions • Drive a fuel-efficient car, walk, bike, carpool, • and use mass transit • Use energy-efficient windows • Use energy-efficient appliances and lights • Heavily insulate your house and seal all drafts • Reduce garbage by recycling and reuse • Insulate hot water heater • Use compact fluorescent bulbs • Plant trees to shade your house during summer • Set water heater no higher than 49°C (120°F) • Wash laundry in warm or cold water • Use low-flow shower head Figure 21-20Page 483

  42. Figure 21-20Page 483