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ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005. Bob Dickman ALMA Staff Associate Division of Astronomical Sciences. Events Reviewed. Antenna procurement Rebaselining Cost Review Near Future. Rebaselining. Fall 2004: Rebaselining begins

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alma update october 2004 october 2005

ALMA Update: October 2004-October 2005

Bob Dickman

ALMA Staff Associate

Division of Astronomical Sciences

events reviewed
Events Reviewed
  • Antenna procurement
  • Rebaselining
  • Cost Review
  • Near Future
rebaselining
Rebaselining
  • Fall 2004: Rebaselining begins
    • March 2002 project baseline antedates formal project agreements and Japanese participation
  • September 2005: “Final” re-baseline cost estimate (JAO)
    • Assumptions
      • Common antenna type, ESO maintains procurement schedule, and 50-element array starting point
    • Increase in cost:
      • Antennas
      • Other areas
    • List of possible changes/descopes/scrubs
    • NSF working hard to buttress overruns: descopes, considering deferrable work, additional partnerships
  • November 2005 goal: New Project Baseline (Scope, Cost and Schedule) in place
rebaselining cost escalation sources
Rebaselining: Cost Escalation Sources
  • Antennas
    • Delay for coordinated procurement
    • Commodity price increases: oil, steel, nickel
  • Site
    • Booming Chilean economy
    • Dollar/peso exchange rates
  • Management
    • Joint ALMA Office, including Project Management & Control System (PMCS)
    • Costs of partnership
  • Systems Engineering and Integration
    • Complexity of project
  • Other (e.g., missing scope, etc.)
cost review
Cost Review
  • Lehman-style cost review
  • Review requested by ALMA Board
    • Report will be passed on to NSF and ESO Council
  • 4 days: October 13-16, 2005
  • Detailed assessment of
    • Cost
    • Schedule
    • Management
    • Initial assessment of integrating Japan Enhanced ALMA; early operations; operations
  • Panel:
    • Chair: Steve Beckwith
    • Vice-Chair: Thijs de Graauw
    • 20-member panel
      • 7 members each nominated by NA and ESO
      • 4 members nominated by Japan
      • 2 members nominated by Chile
  • Report timed to fit needs of ALMA Board, NSF
antenna procurement i
Antenna Procurement: I
  • Parallel procurement required by different legal regimes and practices of partners
  • Each partner provides half the total number of antennas
  • Highly coordinated, based on purchase of two prototypes
  • Goal is manufacture of a single design
  • Start: December 2003. Bumps in the road:
    • Prototype performance:
      • Late questions about (mainly) one prototype arose Summer-Fall 2004
      • Extended testing program given to JAO; settled in early 2005 (both prototypes are excellent)
    • Coordinated procurement broke down in June 2005 with the interruption of the ESO procurement
antenna procurement ii
Antenna Procurement: II
  • In June 2005, ALMA Board urged NSF/AUI/NRAO to proceed with a unilateral NA procurement
  • This approach was supported by ESO Council
  • NRAO signed antenna contract July 11, 2005
  • Significantly higher costs than even 1 year earlier:
    • Commodity cost increases
    • Assume all NRE (recoverable)
    • Loss of quantity discount (recoverable)
antenna procurement iii
Antenna Procurement: III
  • ESO making rapid progress on procurement
    • NSF action has accelerated process
    • On schedule to complete by end of October
    • ESO Council endorsed a 50-element array
  • Both prototype designs still in the running in Europe
immediate future milestones
Immediate Future: Milestones
  • ALMA Cost review: October 13-16
  • ALMA Board acts on ESO antenna choice: November 1
  • NSF-USG decision process to select and authorize new baseline:
    • October 2005 - March 2006
  • New Baseline put in place
challenges
Challenges
  • Operations Costs
  • U.S. Cost increase  Non-Defense discretionary budgetary climate