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Persistence and Cost of Behavioral Programs. Presented to NASUCA Mid-Year Meeting June 25, 2012 by Jeffrey Loiter, Managing Consultant. What is Persistence?. How permanent is the behavior change? Is permanence of change dependent on continued feedback? Still not widely studied

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persistence and cost of behavioral programs

Persistence and Cost of Behavioral Programs

Presented to NASUCA Mid-Year Meeting

June 25, 2012

by

Jeffrey Loiter, Managing Consultant

what is persistence
What is Persistence?
  • How permanent is the behavior change?
  • Is permanence of change dependent on continued feedback?
  • Still not widely studied
    • ACEEE identified “critical lack of information” on long-term persistence in 2010 (Friedrich et al 2010)
    • Only 4 out of 10 programs included in a 2011 BPA survey planning future persistence evaluation (Schick and Goodwin 2011)
    • Particularly weak in C&I sector
continued feedback persistent savings
Continued Feedback = Persistent Savings
  • Meta Study (Ehrhardt-Martinez et al (2010))
    • 70% of studies showed persistent or increased savings, as did
    • 100% of the long-term (1 to 3 year) studies
  • SMUD: Increasing savings over first year, then remaining steady or continuing to increase into second and third years (Cooney 2011)
  • National Grid (electric) and NSTAR (gas): Preliminary findings indicate savings increase or remain steady when program continues for second year (Opinion Dynamics 2012)
  • Persistence may exist even without continued feedback
    • Found in 5 of 6 studies (Ehrhardt-Martinez et al (2010)
what does it cost
What Does it Cost?
  • Key variable is persistence!
    • Annual vs. lifetime or levelized costs
  • What costs are included, and for how long?
  • More data available
  • Large range of demonstrated costs
cost outcomes
Cost Outcomes

Sources: National Grid data and Schick and Goodwin (2011)

suggestions for consumer advocates
Suggestions for Consumer Advocates
  • Demand good evaluation
    • Supported by the program design
    • Statistically valid
    • Answers the right questions
  • Track the costs
  • Know what you are buying
references
References

Cooney, K. (2011) Evaluation Report: OPOWER SMUD Pilot Year 2. Navigant Consulting. February 20.

Ehrhardt-Martinez, K. et al (2010) Advanced Metering Initiatives and Residential Feedback Programs: A Meta-Review for Household Electricity-Saving Opportunities. ACEEE Report Number E105. June.

Friedrich, K, et al. (2010) Visible and Concrete Savings: Case Studies of Effective Behavioral Approaches to Improving Customer Energy Efficiency. ACEEE Report Number E108. October.

Opinion Dynamics (2012) Massachusetts Cross Cutting Behavioral Program 2011 Impact Findings Draft. May

Schick, S. and S. Goodwin (2011) Residential Behavior Based Energy Efficiency Program Profiles 2011. Bonneville Power Administration. December.

slide8
Jeffrey Loiter, Managing Consultant

Optimal Energy, Inc

loiter@optenergy.com

802.453.5100 x18

www.optenergy.com