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Brazil Projections for Agriculture 2005 - 2013. Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004 Sao Paulo, Brasil. Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez USDA, Economic Research Service. Outline of Presentation. Quick Overview Macroeconomic Assumptions Commodity Projections

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Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Brazil Projections for Agriculture2005 - 2013

Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004Sao Paulo, Brasil

Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez

USDA, Economic Research Service


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Outline of Presentation

  • Quick Overview

  • Macroeconomic Assumptions

  • Commodity Projections

  • Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Projections

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Brazil: A Major Player in World Agriculture

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Macro Assumptions

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Total Meat Consumption

Million metric tons

History

Projected

2.4 %/year

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Area Harvested

Million hectares

Projected

History

Total (grains, oilseeds & cotton)

3.1 %/year

5.5 %/year

Soybeans

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Poultry Production & Exports

Million metric tons

2.8%

Production

Exports

2.7%

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Pork Production & Exports

Million metric tons

Production

Exports

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Beef Production & Exports

Million metric tons

Production

Exports

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Corn Exports

Million metric tons

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Soybean Exports

Million metric tons

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Soybean Meal Exports

Million metric tons

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Soybean Oil Exports

Million metric tons

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Cotton Exports & Imports

Million metric tons

Imports

Exports

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Wheat Imports

Million metric tons

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Keys to Future Growth

  • Macroeconomic stability

  • Area growth:

    • Brazil’s Cerrado soils

  • Yield growth:

    • development of tropical crop varieties

  • Livestock dynamics

  • Infrastructure development

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil s fiscal position continues to present a challenge
Brazil’s fiscal position continues to present a challenge…

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


If the real plumbs new depths
If the real plumbs new depths… challenge…

0.9

1.9

2.9

2003-04 Baseline

3.9

6.3 R/$

4.9

Devaluation scenario

7.0 R/$

5.9

6.9

2014

7.9

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil s share of world soybean market increases
Brazil’s share of world soybean market increases… challenge…

Brazil: + 4.8% in 2012

U.S.

U.S.: - 3% in 2012

Brazil

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


And devaluation could also lead to significant
And devaluation could also lead to significant: challenge…

  • Increases in exports of

    • Corn 231,000 MT, OR 36.2%

    • Cotton 160,000 MT, OR 67%

    • Poultry 278,000 MT, OR 15%

  • Decline in imports of

    • Wheat 1.0 MMT, OR 12%

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Brazil challenge… Projections for Agriculture2005 - 2013

Ad Hoc World Outlook Conference 2004Sao Paulo, Brasil

Ron Trostle and Constanza Valdez

USDA, Economic Research Service


But brazil s importance in global markets goes beyond soybeans
But Brazil’s importance in global markets goes beyond soybeans…

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004


Brazil projections for agriculture 2005 2013

Beef Production & Exports soybeans…

Million metric tons

Production

Exports

Agricultural Projections for Brazil. USDA May 2004