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2 nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security. Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company. Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd. Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy. Russia and FSU 4 600 $ / capita 3,6 tep / capita. Europe 34 600 $ / capita

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Energy outlook view of an international oil company

2nd ARF Seminar on Energy Security

Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company

Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEOTotal Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd

16th April 2008


Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy
Severe imbalances in world wealth and energy

Russia and FSU

4 600 $ / capita

3,6 tep / capita

Europe

34 600 $ / capita

3,8 tep / capita

China

2 000 $ / capita

1,5 tep / capita

Japan &

Pacific OECD

30 400 $ / capita

4,5 tep / capita

Middle East

4 900 $ / capita

2,7 tep / capita

North America*

43 700 $ / capita

7,9 tep / capita

India

800 $ / capita

0,6 tep / capita

Latin America*

5 400 $ / capita

1,1 tep / capita

Africa

1 100 $ / capita

0,7 tep / capita

Year 2006

Average GDP : 7 500 $ / capita

Average annual consumption of energy : 1,8 tep / capita

Source: IEA Balances, Total projection. IMF GDP current $ .

* North America : US + Canada, Latin America includes Mexico

16th April 2008


Population and economy transforming the 2030 map

Population

GDP (at exchange rates)

Average growth/year

2005-2030

Trillions (2000$)

Billions

MBoe/d

1.2%

350

2.8%

80

10

1%

300

1.8%

8

60

250

6

200

4.9%

1.7%

40

150

1.2%

4

100

20

2.2%

2

0.6%

50

0.2%

1980

2005

2030

1980

2005

2030

1980

2005

2030

OECD

Non-OECD

Population and economy transforming the 2030 map

Energy demand

Source : UN, world population prospects, 2006. IEA. Total

16th April 2008


80 of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030
80% of the energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030

World energy demand* Million boe/day

Renewables

(including hydro & biomass)

+ 1,2% / year

Nuclear

+ 0.8% / year

2015-2030

328

+ 1.8% / year

2005-2015

Coal

+ 1,8% / year

15 %

49

Gas

6 %

244

19

13 %

31

Oil

27 %

87

6 %

15

152

25 %

62

13 %

20

22 %

79 %

73

3 %

4

25 %

21 %

37

52

17 %

26

30 %

100

35 %

84

43 %

65

1980

2005

2030

* Primary energy

Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total

16th April 2008


A supply forecast barely reaching 100 mb d
A supply forecast barely reaching 100 Mb/d… 2030

Oil demand and supply forecast(*)

Total demand forecast

Mb/d

GTL, CTL

100

Natural gas liquids

80

Crude oil including heavy oil

60

40

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

(*): excluding biofuels

Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 and Total

16th April 2008


As a result of opec influence and the complexity of new projects
…as a result of OPEC influence and the complexity of new projects

Tight market fueling a high price environment

Breakeven oil price of new projects in $/bbl

Ultra deep

water

Arctic

Enhanced

Recovery

80

Deep

water

60

Other

Conventional

Heavy oil

40

Oil need from 2005 to 2030

20

OPEC

Middle East

1000

Oil resourcesin billion barrels

2000

3000

Sources: IEA, Total

16th April 2008


Greenhouse gas emissions the major issue for sustainable growth

Power generation projects

Industry

Transport

Residential and services

42

Other

20

IEA Reference scenario

10%

12%

13%

38

15

65%

34

10

30

IEA Alternative policy scenario

5

26

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

1990

2005

2030

Greenhouse gas emissions: the major issue for sustainable growth

CO2 emissions by sector

CO2 emissions : Potential savings

Increased Nuclear

Increased Renewables

GtonCO2

GtonCO2

Improved efficiency in the Power sector

Demand efficiency measures

16th April 2008


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