2010 CalNex Field Study and “Expanding to the Downwind WRAP Region”

1. 2010 CalNex Field Study and “Expanding to the Downwind WRAP Region” NOAA Boulder June 9, 2009

2. What does the WRAP do? • Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) formed to: • Collect data and provide regional analyses • Support development of state air pollution control plans required under the EPA Regional Haze Rule • Early 2008, WRAP Board adopted 2008-12 Strategic Plan • Identifies regional technical analysis efforts to: • Build upon existing regional haze analysis and planning efforts • Move to a one-atmosphere approach which includes: • Data and analyses to implement haze control plans • Sources, meteorological transport, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality impacts on the Ozone/PM NAAQS, as well as mercury and nitrogen deposition; and • Air quality planning effects from policy changes related to: • Energy development/production and • Climate change mitigation/adaptation

3. What does the WRAP work on Regional Haze show? • Western sources and source categories form: • Ambient Particulate Matter aerosols broken down to chemical species as measured by the rural IMPROVE and CASTNET networks, and the NCORE Urban Chemical Speciation network; and • Ozone in both rural and urban areas • Emissions are transported from tens to thousands of kilometers • Affecting primary air quality health standards (Ozone and PM National Ambient Air Quality Standards [NAAQS]), as well as • Secondary air quality welfare standards (Ozone and PM NAAQS, Regional Haze Rule). • Spatial scale affecting the more than 100 relatively clean Class I Federal areas in the West ranges from global to regional to local • WRAP Technical Committees and Forums are interested in the opportunity to leverage and extend the field study effort in 2010 within California to the downwind WRAP region.

4. WRAP Regional Technical Web Databases

5. WRAP Regional Technical Web Databases

6. Example WRAP Source Apportionment Results CAMx Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (gridded emissions/met in photochemical model with virtual tags of source categories and regions) Weighted Emissions Potential Analyses (gridded emissions * meteorological back trajectory residence time, using a one-over-distance factor to approximate deposition, with normalized final results)

7. Rural & Class I area Ozone Monitoring Results (other recent 3-year regulatory monitoring periods show similar patterns) • Patterns of rural O3 observed at rural downwind locations, suggest that transport of Southern California emissions has long-range effects • Are impacts of regional O3 & PM transport to rural & Class I sites caused by the same or similar sources & source regions? • How do intervening source areas affect O3 & PM formation, titration, & transport? 2005 through 2007 (3-year average) of 4th highest daily monitored maximum 8-hr average at rural & Class I sites

8. California Ozone Transport - Source Apportionment Study Results Ozone Source Apportionment Monthly Mean Results (WRAP region states highlighted) Tong, D. Q. and Mauzerall, D. L. Summertime State-Level Source-Receptor Relationships between Nitrogen Oxides Emissions and Surface Ozone Concentrations over the Continental United States. Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 42, Number 21, 2008.

9. Source region contributions to the total inorganic N deposition from both dry and wet processes measured at Rocky Mountain National Park in northern Colorado during the 2006 spring and summer RoMANS campaigns.

10. IMPROVE monitoring sites in the WRAP region with at least three years of valid data and identifies the six sites selected to demonstrate the apportionment tools. Pie diagrams show the composition for the mean of the 20% worst haze conditions and the mean light extinction (Mm-1)by the size of the circle (see figure key).

11. Particulate sulfate (a) and nitrate (b) source attribution by region using CAMx modeling for 6 western remote area monitoring sites. WRAP includes ND, SD, WY, CO, NM and all states further west. CENRAP includes all states east of WRAP and west of the Mississippi River including MN. Eastern U.S. includes all states east of CENRAP. The Pacific Offshore extends 300km to the west of CA, OR, and WA. Outside Domain refers to the modeling domain, which extends 100s of kilometers into the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and from Hudson Bay Canada to just north of Mexico City. This figure was assembled from site‑specific diagrams produced on the TSS web site for 2002.

12. NOx Emissions from Western US Power Plants Colstrip North Valmy Dave Johnston/ Laramie River Intermountain Jim Bridger/ Naughton Hunter / Huntington Reid Gardener Craig/Hayden Bonanza Mohave Four Corners/ San Juan Navajo Cholla/Coronado/ Springerville • Isolated plants have discrete signatures in satellite retrievals • Power plant emissions are measured continuously at each stack • Currently no NOx pollution controls on large coal-burning plants • “Calibration” for satellite-model comparison Kim, Frost et al. SCIAMACHY, Summer 2005

13. NOx Emissions from Western US Urban Areas +O3/PM Urban and/or High Ambient Concentration Areas Build on satellite-model comparisons for power plants • Evaluate urban area emission inventories and monitor changes Ozone and/or PM NAAQS “Urban Nonattainment Areas” or Populated Areas “Very Near the NAAQS” Denver/Northern Front Range Boise Salt Lake City Reno Sacramento San Francisco Albuquerque / Santa Fe Fresno Bakersfield Los Angeles Las Vegas Phoenix El Paso Tucson Kim, Frost et al. SCIAMACHY, Summer 2005

14. A Network of O3 sondes combined with aircraft could greatly help to answer these questions Bratt's Lake Environment Canada permanent ozonesonde sites Kelowna Planned CalNex O3 sonde network, additional sites would be desirable Trinidad Head Redding Granby Boulder Point Reyes Highest priority for upwind sites Oakdale Morro Bay Barstow Moderate priority for upwind site San Nicolas Is.

15. Rationale for this suggested network configuration Trinidad Head: A background site, where sondes are already launched, and upwind of the ozone non-attainment region of northern California. Point Reyes: A background site upwind of Sacramento and San Francisco. A portable ground station would have to be deployed here. San Nicolas Island: A background site upwind of LA and San Diego. The Navy has indicated that they would be interested in operating this site and already have the necessary equipment plus 24 sondes. NOAA could supplement this site with additional sondes. Morro Bay: A background site roughly halfway between Point Reyes and San Nicolas Island, upwind of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Portable ground station required. Barstow: Downwind of LA. A portable ground station would be required. Oakdale: A small town downwind of San Francisco and Point Reyes and upwind of Yosemite National Park where ozone has been increasing. A portable ground station would be required. No information on a launch facility, it's just a town in the right place. Redding: Downwind of Trinidad Head and within an ozone nonattainment region even though it has a fairly low population. Upwind of Mt. Lassen ozone monitor. Portable ground station required. Boulder: There has been some interest from western air quality managers in participating in CALNEX and looking at downwind air pollution. Boulder would be an easy site for monitoring downwind ozone. Has an existing launch facility. Granby: This site is directly upwind of Boulder but west of the Continental Divide, so it's as close as you can get to the Front Range and still measure upwind ozone. Portable ground station required. Kelowna and Bratt's Lake: If the Canadians are interested in looking at long range ozone transport to eastern Canada then these permanent sites could be activated.

16. CalNex 2010 Study Plans - Characterizing Air Pollutant Fluxes that Influence California Marine Shipping Distant Pollutant Sources Mexican Emissions

17. WRAP Requests Expansion to Include Fluxes that Influence other Southwestern States Upwind of Southern Nevada Upwind of Arizona & Southern Utah Extend Mexican Emission Flux