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Investigating Lightning Cessation at KSC

This study aims to enhance our understanding of electrical activity at the end of storms and improve forecasting of the final lightning flash. By analyzing the LDAR total lightning source density during storm peak activity, we derive insights about lightning cessation behaviors, contrasting abrupt and gradual cessation. We employ modified algorithms to consolidate lightning data, enabling detailed statistical analysis of storm-to-electricity associations. Our insights will significantly contribute to improving predictive models for electric phenomena in storm dynamics. ###

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Investigating Lightning Cessation at KSC

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  1. Investigating Lightning Cessation at KSC Holly A. Melvin Henry E. Fuelberg Florida State University GOES-R GLM Workshop September 2009

  2. Purpose • Better understand electrical activity at the end of a storm • Gain insight into forecasting the last flash of a storm 20 km 20 km Vertical cross-section of 1-min LDAR total lightning source density at 2246 UTC 9 Aug 2005, during the peak rate of core lightning Vertical cross-section of 1-min LDAR total lightning source density at 2326 UTC 9 Aug 2005, the last IC lightning flash of the storm

  3. Methodology • Consolidate LDAR sources into flashes using a modified version of NASA’s flash creation algorithm (Nelson, 2002) • Match CGLSS/NLDN flashes to LDAR flashes using McNamara’s algorithm (2002) • Separate matched flashes into IC sources, CG sources, IC initiation sources, CG initiation sources, and CG strike location data for further analysis • Use WDSS-II software (Lakshmanan et al., 2006) to identify and track storms and their associated lightning and radar characteristics

  4. Storm Cell Tracking • Using the WDSS-II K-Means clustering algorithm: • Identify storms based on VIL density • Set clustering thresholds low enough to track storms through lightning cessation • Clustering small, isolated, weakening cells presents a major challenge! VIL Density and associated storm clusters on 1 Sep 2005

  5. Different Styles of CessationAnalyzed 106 storms

  6. Abrupt Cessation Max dBZ Hail Reports

  7. Time Series of Reflectivityand Source Density

  8. Gradual Cessation

  9. Time Series of Reflectivityand Source Density O O

  10. Outlier O 20 min O

  11. Another Outlier O 9 min O

  12. Trying to Put it all TogetherComposites

  13. Initiation Heights in Normalized Time

  14. Initiation HeightsCG vs IC Flashes CG IC

  15. Multiplicity and Peak Currents Multiplicity Peak Current

  16. Max Reflectivity

  17. Reflectivity Data Being AnalyzedMuch More Work RemainsDetailed Statistical Studies

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