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International Trade and Economics Development Chapter 11. Endogenous growth theory Single factoral terms of trade Double factoral terms of trade Export instability Import substitution industrialization Export oriented industrialization International commodity agreements Buffer stocks
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Endogenous growth theory Single factoral terms of trade Double factoral terms of trade Export instability Import substitution industrialization Export oriented industrialization International commodity agreements Buffer stocks Purchase contracts Vent for surplus Key Terms
1 Introduction • Know the contributions of trade to development • Discuss international trade and endogenous growth theory • Discuss the various terms of trade and reasons for their deterioration • Analyze the cause and effects of export instability • Discuss how to develop economy thru import substitution or export promotion
2 Trade Theory & Economic Development Traditional trade theory---comparative advantage Developing nations believe that this pattern of specialization and trade makes them into a subordinate position and keeps them from reaping the dynamic benefits of industry and maximizing their welfare in the long run. The dynamic benefits are a more trained labor force, more innovations, higher and more stable prices for the nation's exports, and higher income for its people. Traditional trade theory may maximize welfare at one point in time but not over time. Developing nations demand changes in the pattern of trade and reform of the present international economic system to take into consideration their special development needs.
2.1 Contributions of Trade to Development 1. Trade can lead to the full utilization of otherwise underemployed domestic resources. That is, through trade, a developing nation can move from an inefficient production point inside its production frontier, with unutilized resources because of insufficient internal demand, to a point on its production frontier with trade. 2. By expanding the size of the market, trade makes possible division of labor and economies of scale.
2.1 Contributions of Trade to Development 3. International trade is the vehicle for the transmission of new ideas, new technology, and new managerial and other skills. 4. Trade also stimulates the international flow of capital from developed to developing nations. With FDI, the foreign capital is likely to be accompanied by foreign skilled personnel to operate it. 5. In large developing nations, the importation of new products has stimulated domestic demand until efficient domestic production of these goods become feasible. 6. International trade is an antimonopoly weapon because it stimulates greater efficiency to meet foreign competition.
2.2 International Trade and Endogenous Growth Theory It believes that lowering trade barriers will speed up the rate of economic growth and development in the long run by: (1) allowing developing nations to absorb the technology developed in advanced nations at a faster rate than with a lower degree of openness, (2) increasing the benefits that flow from R&D, (3) promoting larger economies of scale in production, (4) reducing price distortions and leading to a more efficient use of domestic resources across sectors, (5) encouraging greater specialization and more efficiency in the production of intermediate inputs, and (6) leading to the more rapid introduction of new products and services.
3 Terms of Trade 1. The commodity, or net barter, terms of trade (N) : It is the ratio of the price index of the nation's exports (Px to the price index of its imports (Pm) multiplied by 100 (to express the terms of trade in percentages). That is: N= (Px/Pm)100 2. Income terms of trade (I) : They are given by: I= (Px/Pm) Qx 3. Single factoral terms of trade (S): They are given by: S = (Px/PM) Zx 4. Double factoral terms of trade (D), They are given by: D = (Px/Pm)(Zx/Zm) 100
3.1 Change of Terms of Trade Of the four terms of trade defined, N, I, and S are the most important. D does not have much significance for developing nations and is very seldom measured. The most significant terms of trade for developing nations are I and S. Since N is the easiest to measure, most of the discussion in the economic literature has been in terms of N. N is often referred to simply as "the terms of trade." In the examples, I and S can rise even when N declines. This is regarded as favorable to a developing nation. The most favorable situation is when N, I, and S all increase, the worst possible situation from the point of view or a developing nation occurs when all three terms of trade deteriorate. This may lead to immiserizing growth.
3.2 Reasons for Deterioration in Terms of Trade Prebisch and others believe that the commodity terms of trade of developing nations tend to deteriorate over time. The reason is that most or all of the productivity increases in developed nations are passed on to their workers in the form of higher wages and income, while most or all of the productivity increases in developing nations are reflected in lower prices. Thus, developed nations have the best of both worlds. They retain the benefits of their own productivity increases in the form of higher wages and income for their workers, and at the same time they also reap most of the benefits from the productivity increases taking place in developing nations through the lower prices they pay for agricultural exports.
3.2 Reasons for Deterioration in Terms of Trade Another reason for expecting the terms of trade of developing nations to deteriorate is that their demand for the manufactured exports of developed nations tends to grow much faster than the latter's demand for the agricultural exports of developing nations. This is due to the much higher income elasticity of demand for manufactured goods than for agricultural commodities. For these reasons, the deterioration in the terms of trade of developing nations could be so great as to make them worse off with trade than without it.
4.1 Cause & Effects: Demand Side The demand side: The demand for many primary exports of developed nations is price inelastic because individual households in developed nations spend only a small proportion of their income on such commodities as coffee, tea, cocoa, and sugar. Consequently, when the prices of these commodities change, households do not significantly change their purchases of these commodities, resulting in a price-inelastic demand. On the other hand, the demand for many minerals is price inelastic because few substitutes are available. The demand for the primary exports of developing nations is unstable because of business cycle fluctuations in developed nations.
4.2 Cause & Effects: Supply Side The supply side: The supply of the primary exports of developing nations is price inelastic because of internal rigidities and inflexibilities in resource uses, especially in the case of tree crops that involve long gestation periods. Supplies are unstable or shifting because of weather conditions, pests, and so on.
4.3 Measures to Control Export Instability • International commodity agreements • Buffer stocks • Export controls • Purchase contracts
Buffer stocks It is the purchase of the commodity when the commodity price falls below an agreed minimum price, and the sale of the commodity out of stock when the price rises above the established maximum price. Example: International Tin Agreement. Disadvantages (1) high cost; (2) If the minimum is set above the equilibrium level, the stock grows larger and larger overtime. 4.3.1 Buffer Stocks
Export controls It seeks to regulate the quantity of a commodity exported by each nation in order to stabilize commodity prices. Advantage: Reducing the cost of maintaining stocks. Disadvantage: Leading to inefficiencies and requiring all major exporters of the commodity participate. 4.3.2 Export Control
Purchase contracts They are the long term multilateral agreements that stipulate a minimum price at which importing nations agree to purchase a specified quantity of the commodity and a maximum price at which exporting nations agree to sell specified amounts of the commodity. It avoids the disadvantages of buffer stock and export controls but result in a two-price system for the commodity. 4.3.3 Purchase Contract
Comments: With the exception of international coffee agreement, they either failed or have very limited success in stabilizing and increasing the export prices and earnings of developing nations. One reason for this is the high cost of operating them and the general lack of support by developed nations since they would have to shoulder most of the burden of setting up and running these international agreements. 4.3.4 Comments
5 Import Substitution or Export Orientation How can developing countries develop the economy? To realize industrialization, because all rich nations are industrial while most poor nations are primarily agricultural.
5.1 Import Substitution To produce products to replace imports. Three advantages of this strategy: (1) Risks are reduced in setting up an industry to replace imports because the market for the product already exists, as evidenced by imports of the commodity; (2) It is easier for developing nations to protect their domestic market against foreign competition than to force developed nations to lower trade barriers against their manufactured exports. (3) Foreign firms are induced to establish so-called tariff factories to overcome the tariff wall of developing nations.
5.1 Import Substitution • Disadvantages of import substitution policy: • Domestic industries can grow accustomed to protection from foreign competition and have no incentive to become more efficient. • Import substitution can lead to inefficient industries • After the simpler manufactured imports are replaced by domestic production, import substitution becomes more and more difficult and costly (in terms of the higher protection and inefficiency) as more capital-intensive and technologically advanced imports have to be replaced by domestic production.
5.2 Export Orientation • To produce for the purpose to export. • Advantages of export-oriented industrialization: • It overcomes the smallness of the domestic market and allows a developing nation to take advantage of economies of scale. This is particularly important for the many developing countries that are both very poor and small. • Production of manufactured goods for export requires and stimulates efficiency throughout the economy. This is especially important when the output of an industry is used as an input of another domestic industry. • The expansion of manufactured exports is not limited (as in import substitution) by the growth of the domestic market.
5.2 Export Orientation • Two serious disadvantages: • It may be very difficult for developing nations to set up export industries because of the competition from the more established and efficient industries in developed nations. • Developed nations often provide a high level of effective protection for their industries producing simple labor-intensive commodities in which developing nations already have or can soon acquire a comparative advantage.
Import substitution may be of some benefit in the early stages of development (especially for larger developing nations), while an export orientation becomes an absolute necessity only later in the development process. Thus, rather than being alternatives, policies of import substitution and export orientation could profitably be applied to some extent sequentially, especially in the larger developing nations. 5.3 Summary
6 Current Problems and Demands of Developing Countries Serious problems facing developing nations 1. The conditions of complete poverty prevailing in many countries. 2. The huge international debt of most developing nations. 3. The trade protectionism of developed nations against developing nations' exports. Demands of developing nations They demand a new international economic order based on the establishment of international commodity agreements, increased access of their exports to developed nations' market and increased flow of foreign aid.
Why can international trade not be expected to be an engine of growth for today’s developing nations? What is meant by the commodity terms of trade? The income terms of trade?single and double factoral terms of trade? Which are the most significant terms of trade for developing nations? Why do some economists believe that the commodity terms of trade of developing nations have a tendency to deteriorate over time? What is import substitution and export orientation? 7 Discussion Questions